I was thinking about how events in the early 20'th century would have played out differently if Austria Hungary either backed down or otherwise resolved the Bosnian crisis in 1908. Say minutes of Aehrenthal and Isvolsky's infamous meeting at Buchlau to bargain over Bosnia and the Straits are somehow recorded and then released to Franz Ferdinand and/or other cooler heads? My thinking is that most likely they would recognize that the Buchlau agreement was treading on thin ice under the diplomatic circumstances, and that any Bosnian annexation would be dangerous regardless. With this in mind, perhaps they would agree with Russia to bring the whole issue out under the light and either resolve it openly or send it to The Hague for international arbitration. Either way, the annexation of Bosnia would be at least delayed, and at most totally called off. With no Bosnia, would Franz Ferdinand ever be assassinated? Would history be any kinder to the Habsburgs?
QUICK SCENARIO: With Bosnia outside AH's borders, there is no militant independence movement, and thus no shooting in Sarajevo in the summer of 1914. Franz Ferdinand, very much alive, exercises growing influence on policy in Vienna. His federation scheme begins to gain traction amongst upper echelon officials as the plan's utility becomes increasingly obvious. Meanwhile, Russia continues to push the Straits issue with the Porte. Hoping for either the full backing of the international community in a conference, or a chance to start a conflict, Russia's leadership bides its time. A naval confrontation in 1912 finally provides the chance St. Petersburg has been looking for when two Russian cruisers in the central Black Sea are allegedly fired upon by Ottoman vessels. Both the Russian and Ottoman Empires mobilize for war. Britain, Germany, and Austria Hungary look on in horror as Russian armies aiming for Constantinople are granted military access by Bulgaria (and a reluctant Romania), who together with Serbia and Greece are also mobilizing their own forces as they see a chance to partition what is left of Ottoman Europe. With the balance of power crumbling around them, Britain and Germany issue a joint ultimatum: If Russian ground troops cross the Danube, Britain will blockade Murmansk and send the Mediterranean Fleet to Constantinople, while assisting the German navy in shutting down the Baltic to Russian shipping. The threat of war looms over the continent while in Paris and Vienna, uncertainty and nervous indecision dominate the atmosphere...
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Alternatively, what if Austria Hungary upheld their end of the OTL "deal?" If Aehrenthal held a series of smoky back-room meetings with British and French officials, could he convince them to recognize Russia's right of access to the Bosporus? If Aehrenthal and Isvolsky are seen as having successfully worked together on the issue, could this open up a new period of understanding between Russia and Austria Hungary? This would set an operational precedent for approaching the Balkan question in general, and could relieve a huge amount of tension in Europe in a best-case outcome. Is any of this remotely possible?