WI: No Austro-Hungarian Annexation of Bosnia

May 11'th, 1912:

"...this new war is like a slow burning match that has been lit beneath Europe, and it will ignite a fire the likes of which this world has never before seen. It will not die until it has exhausted all available fuel; the anger of this continent's unheard, starving, and oppressed millions. However, the time is not yet ripe. We must wait until events have progressed still further. I am close to obtaining further funds. My contacts in Antwerp and Zurich can be trusted. The same cannot be said for your friends from Prague.

Have patience.

-Parvus
"


For almost 40 straight hours, the docks at Maizuru Naval Base had been crawling with men and equipment, loading the enormous warships stationed there. Japan was going to war, and word was spreading through the surrounding towns and those with relatives in the military. At this point it was seen as unlikely that a blockade of the Russian Pacific Fleet could be sealed without a fight, and it was thought that Russian agents were probably already aware of Japan's decision to join the conflict.

In Paris, the mood was different. Germany's ambassador had just had lunch with Raymond Poincare, the French foreign minister, and had desperately attempted to convince him that the actions taken thus far were not intended in any way, shape, or form to threaten the French Republic. For all that, a tense mood had accompanied the proceedings from the start. Russia and France shared a close relationship, and although the conflict was one between Russia and Turkey, German naval intervention in it was still seen as a shadowy attempt to weaken France's strategic position. Firebrands in the German military seemed to view the situation through the same lens, and were pushing for complete mobilization and execution of the controversial Schlieffen Plan. However, an aging Schlieffen had emerged from retirement to vehemently oppose such action. For now, Germany and France were content to keep a watchful eye on one another across the Vosges...




 
Ideas? Suggestions? Thoughts? Anybody? If the thread is moving too slowly, let me know.
 
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Ideas? Suggestions? Thoughts? Anybody? If the thread is moving too slowly, let me know.

Well the French will surely not see a close British-Germany relationships (even if temporary) very well, expecially against Russia (big trading and political patner).
Italy will probably wait and closely watch what A-H does, for the last decade she as prepared the terrain for the conquest of Lybia and for the spreading of her influence in the balkans and a war between OE and Russia can undo all the work...or made thing more easy, but there is the question of Germany, she is an ally and a respected one, if Russia attack them Rome will be probably asked to honor the treaty of allliance (and Berlin, differently from Vienna, will probably keep Rome on the loop so there will be a lot less of excuese for not enter the fray on her side).
Italy view of Bosnia and Serbia? Serbia was not very considerated, till the first balkan war when she become a nuisance and a target for A-H (thing that we like) and an adversary on aquiring influence on the balkans...but more the second, and Bosnia was not very considered till the official annexation who frankly bring de juare a de facto situation.

And no it's not too slow
 
Well the French will surely not see a close British-Germany relationships (even if temporary) very well, expecially against Russia (big trading and political patner).
Italy will probably wait and closely watch what A-H does, for the last decade she as prepared the terrain for the conquest of Lybia and for the spreading of her influence in the balkans and a war between OE and Russia can undo all the work...or made thing more easy, but there is the question of Germany, she is an ally and a respected one, if Russia attack them Rome will be probably asked to honor the treaty of allliance (and Berlin, differently from Vienna, will probably keep Rome on the loop so there will be a lot less of excuese for not enter the fray on her side).
Italy view of Bosnia and Serbia? Serbia was not very considerated, till the first balkan war when she become a nuisance and a target for A-H (thing that we like) and an adversary on aquiring influence on the balkans...but more the second, and Bosnia was not very considered till the official annexation who frankly bring de juare a de facto situation.

And no it's not too slow

Hmmm...interesting. I think I'm now beginning to get some ideas for Italy's role in the conflict...

A quick update:


May 12'th, 1912:

The grey waters of the Baltic extended unbroken to the northern horizon. To the east, the low, dim coastline of Oesel Island could be seen 20 miles away. The combined British-German fleet was sailing ever closer to the Gulf of Finland, and potential battle. Between St. Petersburg and London, frantic dispatches were being sent by ambassadors to their home offices, requesting instructions for how to placate the other side. In Berlin, the General Staff had convinced the Kaiser of the necessity to move 12 more already active divisions to East Prussia. Though few in the military wanted to admit it to the civilian government, the reality was that Germany was quickly and quietly preparing for the possibility of a land war against the Russian Empire...

In Bulgaria, a fluid front line had already developed between Ottoman and Bulgarian military units in the extreme south of the country. Not far to the north, a total of 22 Russian divisions had finally reached their starting positions and were preparing to move towards the front. More units would continue to arrive every day. From his headquarters in Varna, General Yudenich and his staff were rapidly finalizing a plan for an offensive into Ottoman Thrace.

In Maizura, Japan, the sun rose over an empty harbor...
 
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May 13, 1912:

There was no turning back now; the largest fleet Japan had assembled since the war 7 years ago was 30 miles south of Vladivostock and in position. The blockade was now essentially in place, with the fleet spread out in a line over 12 miles long. It would be practically impossible for the Russian Pacific fleet to break out of the Golden Horn Bay without being spotted by Japanese naval units. A statement had been sent to the Russian government earlier in the day saying that owing to events in Europe, the government of Russia could no longer be trusted as a responsible actor in East Asia. Japan was demanding that active Russian military units on Sakhalin stand down within the next 48 hours, and that all naval units in the Pacific return to port and unload their ammunition so as to avoid "misunderstandings." Prince Yamagata hoped that the letter would provoke an armed response within hours.

In Europe, battle raged in southern Bulgaria. A total of 350,000 Bulgarian and Russian troops were in position along a 20 mile front roughly on the Bulgarian-Ottoman frontier. An approximately equal number of Ottoman units faced off against them, and both sides were rushing units to the front as fast as possible. Under intense pressure from the Russian government, the Romanian rail ministry had agreed to stop all non-essential traffic on two north-south rail axes for 24 hours to allow for an uninterrupted stream of Russian military supplies and new units to move south. General Yudenich hoped to have a total of 4 armies operational within 48 hours for an advance on Adrianople. Everything relied on the Bulgarian army mobilizing quickly enough to seal the western half of their border. If this could be accomplished, the entire Russian army could focus their efforts on a narrow front and drive towards Constantinople as fast as possible, before significant numbers of Ottoman units could be moved from Mesopotamia and Armenia.

In Moscow and St. Petersburg, much of the diplomatic staff was focused on attempting to avoid a land war with any of the other European powers. It was already becoming clear that a declaration of war with Japan was becoming more likely by the hour, necessitating the movement of troops to the Russian Far East. The Tsar's ministers were now advocating for full mobilization of all military districts on Russia's western borders. Earlier in the afternoon, warning shots had been fired by HSF units at Russian merchant ships in the entrance to the Gulf of Finland. British cruisers and German submarines patrolled the coasts of Russia's Baltic provinces, and had forced several ships to turn back to port in the last 12 hours. However, Nicholas II and some of his generals felt Constantinople would likely fall in the next two weeks, before a ground war could break out with another power. And on their southwest, Austria-Hungary was for the moment still neutral.

 
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Suggestions?

Nothing wrong I can see with the TL so far. I'm curious to see how the situation develops, though.

I can see Germany pushing for a land war against Russia. After all, the opportunity to beat them down without British interference is pretty much their dream scenario. Hmm, speaking of Britain, is the Oppau plant on schedule or are the Germans pushing less hard for the utilization of the Haber process? With Britain on sort of the same side, the need might be less with ready access to Chilean nitrates.
 
This timeline is interesting thus far. I'm just not sure it addresses well enough the powderkeg that was Intra-European relations in the early part of the last century.
 
Nothing wrong I can see with the TL so far. I'm curious to see how the situation develops, though.

I can see Germany pushing for a land war against Russia. After all, the opportunity to beat them down without British interference is pretty much their dream scenario. Hmm, speaking of Britain, is the Oppau plant on schedule or are the Germans pushing less hard for the utilization of the Haber process? With Britain on sort of the same side, the need might be less with ready access to Chilean nitrates.

Thanks for the response (and your interest in scientific development in this TL :D). At this point, Oppau is online and producing ammonium sulfate with the help of the Haber process. However, as you mentioned, at this stage Germany has easy access to Chilean nitrates, so there is little manufacturing of ammonium nitrate, and the Haber process is in general being used at OTL 1912 levels.

As for a land war with Russia, you're completely right. There is a huge debate on the General Staff as to whether or not to fully mobilize and immediately attack Russia. For the moment, the Kaiser feels like he can keep the situation under control thanks to his personal relations with the Tsar, but virtually everyone around him knows it will not be that simple...
 
This timeline is interesting thus far. I'm just not sure it addresses well enough the powderkeg that was Intra-European relations in the early part of the last century.

Sorry for wasting space, I didn't know how to put two quotes on the same post.

At this point, the TL is moving day by day, and in OTL it took almost a month after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand before Austro-Hungarian troops even received mobilization orders for a war that was still thought to be only against Serbia. That being said, I feel like the pacing of the thread isn't really very fluid, so I'll probably be posting more dates per thread, but with less extraneous detail. Hopefully that will make events appear to move faster. And Europe is definitely a powder keg, but the POD means everyone, particularly Russia and Austria-Hungary, are just a little less hot-headed than in OTL. But the TL is still just beginning, and I have plans for some major players that have yet to make an appearance ;). I will try and address this better in future posts.
 
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Suggestions?


Britain and Germany have mastery of the seas and can send expeditionary forces to Constantinople to backup the Ottomans and prevent the straits from falling into Russian hands.

Or they can purposely not send any reinforcements to the straits to give Russia the false impression of an easy victory in that theatre, goading Russia into a war. With British and German armies in the straits, their warships in the north and baltic seas as well as Japan blockading Vladivostok, Russia may be checked, realize it and stop aggressions.

What can Britain and Germany hope to gain in this war, that is not clear. Other than checking Russia's expansion into the straits, do they have other goals? Austris is playing is very cool but I can see her supporting Germany and maybe bringing the war to Serbia, perhaps with the goal of destroying Serbian goals in the Balkans and ending Russian-Serb cooperation.

Otherwise please continue this TL, I am enjoying the direction it is heading.
 

May 14, 1912

Japan and Russia were now officially at war, the declaration having come after Russian coastal gunners opened fire on two scouting vessels accompanied by a destroyer that were making their way farther into the Golden Horn Bay. However, the event turned out to be somewhat embarrassing in Yamagata's report as the destroyer was critically damaged by the surprise shelling and had to be scuttled, along with one of the scouting vessels that developed severe engine trouble while trying to accelerate too quickly in order to escape the range of the guns. Although the amount of damage was unexpected, the incident "fully justified" Japan's declaration of war only 4 hours later.

On Hokkaido, 8 divisions were preparing to set sail to reinforce Japanese south Sakhalin (Karafuto) for the planned occupation of the northern half of the island.

In Europe, events had reached a critical stage. Shortly after 1:00pm local time, a Russian flagged freighter moving west was spotted by a British dreadnought off the coast of Latvia. After repeated warnings to stop were ignored, three rounds were fired from short distance, intended as warnings. However, rough seas pitched the ship forward at the exact moment as one of the rounds was being fired, sending a 13.5 inch shell directly into the side of the freighter. As the resulting fire began to spread out of control, British and German vessels pulled up along side to evacuate the crew. Although no lives were lost, British ships had sunk a Russian ship, and her crew was now in the custody of the blockading powers, creating a diplomatic flashpoint. Almost immediately, telegrams were sent to London and Berlin demanding to know what had taken place. Newspapers in Russia prepared print runs for the next day with large headlines speaking of the possibility of full mobilization and war. France strongly criticized the blockade and put all active duty military personnel on high alert.
 

May 15, 1912:

Events were now at a critical stage. The Russian government was having far more trouble than expected in reigning in private owners of commercial freighters. Every few hours, reports filtered in of ships attempting to run the Anglo-German blockade, only to be stopped, boarded and searched, and then forced back to port. However, in London, questions were beginning to be asked about the practicality and strategic expediency of the blockade. If Germany and Russia should start a shooting war in the next few days, Britain would be placed in an awkward situation. While it had no desire to see Russia gain the Straits and an entrance to the Mediterranean, it was equally uncomfortable with the idea of a significantly stronger Germany victorious over Russia. France was another matter entirely; no one wished to alienate London's truest real ally. Already, the decision to start a blockade was seen as too hasty and poorly planned. Asquith, early in the afternoon, remarked that the whole situation was "a political game played by the admirals to get more battleships." Close associates of the prime minister later wrote that he never saw Russian access to the Mediterranean as necessarily being a threat to the British Empire. However, although the subject was fiercely debated in board rooms for most of the day, no orders were issued recalling the British ships from their positions. For the time being, the blockade would continue.

In Bulgaria, Yudenich was ready. His four armies were assembled and ready to begin offensive operations into Rumelia. In western Bulgaria, where some 2/3 of the Bulgarian army had been deployed, an effective barrier had been formed against a Turkish advance. The other third was mostly deployed near the Black Sea coast to protect Burgas. He hoped this would allow him to use the full strength of his Russian forces to advance on his first target, Adrianople. The plan was to use the Maritsa and Tundzha Rivers to protect his flanks during this phase of the offensive. At around 4:00pm local time, the armies that had gathered behind the still fluid front line began to advance. By midnight, the front had been pushed south almost 12 miles along a stretch of the line 15 miles wide. From Varna, Yudenich telegraphed to Moscow

Varna, 15 May

Armies II, III, V, IX deployed and advancing. Expect to occupy Adrianople within 72 hours. Constantinople 2 weeks. Minimum 5 additional corps necessary to accelerate time table and secure gains. Caucasus feint would be of great value.

Yudenich


The front lines after the first day of the Adrianople Offensive, 11:00 pm, May 15'th:

(Blue line represents Russian staging area on 13 May)



May 15, 1912.png
 
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I am changing the format of the timeline somewhat to try and make it more fluid. Let me know if it needs work.


In the Far East, Prince Yamagata had longed for a chance to once again demonstrate Imperial Japanese naval might. That chance had arrived. On May 16, Japanese cruisers that had spent the last few days getting into position simultaneously appeared within sight of land off several Russian ports on Sakhalin. The cruisers shelled gun installations that Japanese intelligence had spent the last few years discovering, as well as ships in the harbor. Off Vladivostock, the blockade held tight and destroyed an empty oil tanker attempting to run through. Throughout the next two days, transport ships steamed north from Hokkaido, ferrying the 8 divisions allocated for the occupation of North Sakhalin. They would supplement existing forces already stationed on Japanese Karafuto. On May 19'th, the first skirmishes began between Japanese and Russian military units. However, the logistical complications associated with moving artillery across the sparsely settled island sparked concern in local commanders. Shortly after this was recognized, Yamagata was approached by the commander of a rather curious experimental army unit that had in its possession two French-built Farman biplanes...

In Europe, Yudenich's armies advanced again, early in the morning of May 16'th. By noon, they had run up against serious opposition; the first Ottoman reinforcements from Mesopotamia had begun to arrive at the front. This was not an unexpected turn of events, but it was happening sooner than Stavka had expected. Plans would have to be adjusted. However, the Russian armies were still grinding forward, and Yudenich was confident for the moment that his basic strategy was still sound. His staff continued to send daily telegrams proposing a Caucasus offensive, but it looked as though it would take a few days at least to assemble a force from divisions only just mobilized. On May 17'th, the front collapsed about 10 miles north of Adrianople, as Turkish units fell back to defend the city now ringed with trenches and other fortifications. Later that night, the first Russian forces began to arrive near the outskirts of the city...


Japanese cruiser Kongo, patrolling the Tartar Strait between Siberia and Sakhalin Island.



Japanese_battleship_Kongo.jpg
 


In Europe, events had reached a critical stage. Shortly after 1:00pm local time, a Russian flagged freighter moving west was spotted by a British dreadnought off the coast of Latvia. After repeated warnings to stop were ignored, three rounds were fired from short distance, intended as warnings. However, rough seas pitched the ship forward at the exact moment as one of the rounds was being fired, sending a 13.5 inch shell directly into the side of the freighter. As the resulting fire began to spread out of control, British and German vessels pulled up along side to evacuate the crew. Although no lives were lost, British ships had sunk a Russian ship, and her crew was now in the custody of the blockading powers, creating a diplomatic flashpoint. Almost immediately, telegrams were sent to London and Berlin demanding to know what had taken place. Newspapers in Russia prepared print runs for the next day with large headlines speaking of the possibility of full mobilization and war. France strongly criticized the blockade and put all active duty military personnel on high alert.

Not exactly one of the worst excuses for a diplomatic incident posted. There is a reason why cruisers are used to intercept vessels and maintain blockades. Neither the Germans nor the British would be establishing a close blockade with capital ships it is too dangerous and needlessly exposes them to attack.

Also the Japanese battlecruiser Kongo was only just launched in May 1912 and wasn't completed and commissioned until August 1913.
 
I find the whole idea of a conflict between Russia and Britain in 1912 very weird considering that the two countries had been allied since 1907. Heck Britain was even open to the idea of a Russia Constantinople during World War One ...
 
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