WI: No Atomic Bomb, Invasion of Kyushu Fails

[TFSmith121]

Kyushu was designed to secure airfields, anchorages, and

The Kyushu operation was designed to secure airfields, anchorages, and bases for the Honshu operation; towards the end of the planning stages, when there were indications of the IJA build-up, the planners were considering switching the objective to Shikoku. There was even some consideration of going straight for Honshu ... and its not like the US could not switch gears; Leyte rather than Mindanao after Palau comes to mind.

The other reality is that the US units allotted for Kyushu - including the 3rd and 5th fleets and 6th Army, built around the I, IX, XI, and V 'Phib corps (made up of the 1st Cavalry, 2nd Marine, 3rd Marine, 5th Marine, 11th Airborne, 25th, 33rd, 40th, 41st, 43rd, 77th, 81st, 98th, and Americal divisions) were hardly novices; other than the 98th, which had not yet seen action, they were all veteran formations, and several were elite.

Combine that experience with US tactics and firepower, and the realities of the general weakness in everything but manpower of the IJA by 1945-46, and the possibility of the US not gaining its objectives on Kyushu (essentially, the southern third of the island) is pretty close to impossible.

There's also the reality that the US alone had 14 ground force divisions in the Pacific beyond those assigned to 6th Army, and something like 24 more in transit or detailed from the ETO; in addition, the Allies all had forces preparing for service under US command in the event of a campaign in Japan... the front-line US forces in the Pacific not assigned to 6th Army included:

1st, 4th, 6th Marine divisions; 6th, 7th, 24th, 27th, 31st, 32nd, 37th, 38th, and 96th divisions; while the 12th and 93rd would presumably have sufficed for the PI, along with the re-activated PCA.

The weather would have more of an impact than anything the IJA could do, much less the IJN.

Best,

 

[DemonicToaster]

Uhhh... There may be an issue the west coast of the US may end up needing to deal with and that is Operation Cherry Blossoms at Night. Nukes may have prevented that from happening or the OTL time of surrender prevented it from happening.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

Uhhh... There may be an issue the west coast of the US may end up needing to deal with and that is Operation Cherry Blossoms at Night. Nukes may have prevented that from happening or the OTL time of surrender prevented it from happening.

The IJN thought that was impractical and didn't want to throw away any subs on it when they could be used for the defense of the home islands

The Japanese tried biowarfare on the US before, the sub they tried it with was sunk. What makes you think this attack would do any better if the IJN is dumb enough to authorize it?

 

[CalBear]

The IJN thought that was impractical and didn't want to throw away any subs on it when they could be used for the defense of the home islands

The Japanese tried biowarfare on the US before, the sub they tried it with was sunk. What makes you think this attack would do any better if the IJN is dumb enough to authorize it?

The IMPERIAL JAPANESE NAVY thought it was impractical? That may be the biggest insult ever delivered to a proposed military operation in all of human history. The same bunch of lunatics that came up with Operation Ten-Go thought it was impractical?



As an semi-serious reminder - Plague is endemic to the Western U.S. to this day. May as well try to infect the beach with sand.

 

[phx1138]

IMO, both propositions border on ASB at best, & IMO the invasion failing is well into ASB territory. The lack of the Bomb (or its failure) does not, of need, lead to invasion. Invasion was always seen as a last resort. So, how long does bombing & blockade continue? Until Winter '45? Into the famine? Until USN decides to cut Japan into pieces by closing the essential rail bridges & tunnels, closing off all intra-Japanese movement of food & coal? How far from surrender do you think Japan was?

Then, you've got to bugger the USN landings in a way that makes Dieppe look petty. By this point, USN amphibious capability was the best in the world, & Japan's defenses make Dieppe's look strong. There was little more than a crust, & the U.S. controlled the sky over Japan in a way Eisenhower would have envied.

So, just what stupid bat were the U.S. commanders, all of them, hit with?