alternatehistory.com

Contrary to common belief, Europe in 1914 was not inevitably heading towards war and WWI came as a shock to almost every country. If anything, the probability of war was on the decline, the alliances which characterized the war were themselves decaying and re-arranging themselves. The Franco-Russian alliance was thought by the French to be on the verge of a breakdown because Russia would soon be powerful enough not to require France. At the same time, the great powers were getting better at managing various diplomatic crisis as to avoid war.

Both the UK/Germany and France/Germany were arranging promising diplomatic detente over the naval race and the Rhine borders respectively. Had the July crisis being avoided, there's a significant chance that the alliance system would have broken down and a period of detente would have followed.

So let's say the Archduke's driver doesn't take the wrong road and princip gavrilo misses his chance, what does the world look like by 1940 or so?
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