WI: no assassination of archduke Ferdinand in July 1914, Europe avoids war

RousseauX

Donor
Contrary to common belief, Europe in 1914 was not inevitably heading towards war and WWI came as a shock to almost every country. If anything, the probability of war was on the decline, the alliances which characterized the war were themselves decaying and re-arranging themselves. The Franco-Russian alliance was thought by the French to be on the verge of a breakdown because Russia would soon be powerful enough not to require France. At the same time, the great powers were getting better at managing various diplomatic crisis as to avoid war.

Both the UK/Germany and France/Germany were arranging promising diplomatic detente over the naval race and the Rhine borders respectively. Had the July crisis being avoided, there's a significant chance that the alliance system would have broken down and a period of detente would have followed.

So let's say the Archduke's driver doesn't take the wrong road and princip gavrilo misses his chance, what does the world look like by 1940 or so?
 

ben0628

Banned
The Balkans are still a mess and a Third Balkan War is highly possible.

Nationalism still exists as well as border disputes. This will lead to an eventual conflict.

Colonialism creates further tensions as well.

Just because Franz doesn't die doesn't mean WW1 will not occur. In my opinion it's 50/50. Although you might not see a world war, some kind of major conflict between 2-3 Great powers is inevitable

Anyhow, let's say you're right and WW1 or any major conflict doesn't happen.

1) European control over their colonies lasts another 10-20 years.
2) Russia benefits greatly. Perhaps it is able to become the world's number 1 power?
3) Japan is a wild card. Wants to expand influence but can't get a chance.
4) Balkans are a wild card. If no wars take place, there will still be population transfers and ethnic cleansing.
5) Idk about the Ottomans by this point, although one can assume they'll still be propped up by Germany.
 
My bias is that 1914 had so many pressures culminating at once that it was the proverbial camel's back, but that said, I think the July Crisis was not the certain straw it became. And I do not believe that FF surviving dooms A-H, but I think he is a bit more of an unknown than we assume. So first, I think that A-H will face a crisis over how to recognize its diverse population and give them enough freedom and prosperity to want to stay in the Empire. I do not think it simply happens in 1917 as has become the go-to, but I suspect that kettle boils over eventually. But so long as we have Russia to the East I think the gravity remains to hold it together.

My opinion is that Russia get big enough to push France into the British camp, France accepts that Alsace-Lorraine is gone and economic reality means it will have to seek accommodation with Germany as the biggest kid on the continent. The British should see Russia as a bigger threat than Germany and their relations will warm. All this improves as the generation change occurs with Wilhelm dying and the old Prussian generals retiring away. The Schlieffen plan should be regarded as dead by 1917 and Germany will soften its attitude, combined with the ongoing shift in political power to the SPD and other "liberal" forces, I think Germany refocuses on its economy while building a credible deterrent in the East.

I think the OE survives long enough to see its oil developed and then goes on path to become a serious power once more. It will be Russia's nemesis to the south but never quite as dependent on any of the other great powers, in effect it gets independent. A flashpoint will be its possible desire to reassert dominion over Arabia and push back the British. Germany, with A-H and the rest of central Europe, likely gets dependent on oil from OE, later the natural gas. Germany likely has a lot of investment but will lose influence, it should look like the American and Saudi relationship, complicated. Eventually OE may develop links to Japan as it exports oil from the gulf, we might see the Ottoman navy get cozy with Japanese builders and advisors. Japan may yet experience a transition to more of a true commercial power. I think the OE stays cool to Italy for a long time as Italy holds Libya, the islands and likely supports Britain in Egypt and the Red Sea.

Overall I think Russia has some serious internal obstacles but if it can hold it together it has the potential to become the first super power. That changes everyone's math. It will always be a land based power but will eventually return to its navy, once it does it becomes a threat to the RN, USN and IJN, those countries all want Russia contained. The flash points should be China and Persia. The OE will have a dog in this hunt as Persia sees itself fought over, that has potential to begin the revival of Islamic identity that her passes into Russia.

The Balkans seem more likely to stabilize, Bulgaria is the main power, Romania is trapped between three great powers with Russia likely more menacing, Greece and Serbia become the primary pawns to push forward great power squabbles, and Russia will be making enemies as it continues to support its attempts to weaken A-H and OE positions.

Colonialism has a slower death, maybe just as many bush wars, but less ideology, it becomes about breaking into markets and weakening the British. The biggest event will be Indian independence, it might take longer and be done with less urgency but I think it breaks the Empire and lets the USA and Japan move up as the premier maritime powers, followed by the Russians and Germans further back. If Germany reorients its trade towards Russia it might become the high tech and industrial export house like Japan became to the USA, Russia might dominate heavy industries and enjoy exporting raw materials, wheat and so on, making an odd reorientation of Europe gravitating towards Russia rather than the USA.

The USA will become a major economic power, in the top three with Russia and the British Empire, likely Germany holding number four spot. The USA should remain a significant naval power and develop into a strategic air power but its army will wither. The British will remain the first tier naval power but not be as dominant long term. Japan should still rise and it becomes questionable its gets the Empire built on Manchuria. But I think China remains an imperial playground longer.

I think we have to assume that all sorts of strange new alignments and orientations might evolve, I think the global economy takes more influence, and the world has a more pronounced bias towards Europe, more wealth in Europe, the USA and Japan not as strong but part of that, the rest of the world perhaps just as poor and exploited. And I do not think I am even truly letting butterflies blossom.
 
  • In a no war scenario, what do people think of population growth, you have what like 20 million extra still alive after WW1, 50 million maybe after WW2, the Soviet pre world war 5 millions in the Ukraine, deaths following conflicts related to the cold war (Chinese civil war). Less damage, better nutrition, more wealth, more infrastructure in Africa, etc. which leads to more children.
Could this extrapolate out to an extra billion world wide, maybe more?
 

BooNZ

Banned
If war is avoided in 1914, the dove factions in France and Germany continue to grow stronger and British foreign policy in respect of Germany, Russia and France becomes more confused - Russia is increasingly seen as a threat to British interests and the anti-German cabal in the British foreign office gradually loses influence. By 1916 Russia is the only great power left looking for a fight.

So by 1940:
  • USA is still number one industrial power, but number two financial power after Great Britain
  • Great Britain remains number one financial, naval and colonial power, but slips to number four industrial power
  • Germany remains number two industrial power and maybe climbs to number three financial power
  • Russia climbs to number three industrial power, but otherwise looks menacing - grrr
  • Assuming it stays in one piece, A-H surpasses France in most respects
Circa 1920, without OTL war profiteering the Japanese economy is weaker and faced with a stronger Russia, the Anglo-Japanese alliance is more likely to be preserved. Otherwise Japan is bear bait.

Does Germany manage to peacefully sell its neighbours on the Mittel Europa concept?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
If war is avoided in 1914, the dove factions in France and Germany continue to grow stronger and British foreign policy in respect of Germany, Russia and France becomes more confused - Russia is increasingly seen as a threat to British interests and the anti-German cabal in the British foreign office gradually loses influence. By 1916 Russia is the only great power left looking for a fight.

Well, Russia is gradually becoming the head honcho in the Franco-Russian alliance. Thus, once Russia is sufficiently strong (perhaps by 1940 or so), it might feel sufficiently confident to go to war with France on its side.

So by 1940:
  • USA is still number one industrial power, but number two financial power after Great Britain
  • Great Britain remains number one financial, naval and colonial power, but slips to number four industrial power
  • Germany remains number two industrial power and maybe climbs to number three financial power
  • Russia climbs to number three industrial power, but otherwise looks menacing - grrr
  • Assuming it stays in one piece, A-H surpasses France in most respects
Circa 1920, without OTL war profiteering the Japanese economy is weaker and faced with a stronger Russia, the Anglo-Japanese alliance is more likely to be preserved. Otherwise Japan is bear bait.

All of this sounds right.

Does Germany manage to peacefully sell its neighbours on the Mittel Europa concept?

Austro-Hungarian official Ottokar von Czernin (sp?) wrote in his 1919 book about the Great War that Franz Ferdinand was opposed to the Mitteleuropa concept and wanted to maintain an approximately equal distance between Germany and Russia.

Thus, in response to your question, probably not.
 
Some of the ideas seen quite sound, however what about the Ottomans and their Empire, it's going to fall sooner or later, 1930's?
Also what of Italy?



Well, Russia is gradually becoming the head honcho in the Franco-Russian alliance. Thus, once Russia is sufficiently strong (perhaps by 1940 or so), it might feel sufficiently confident to go to war with France on its side...

OK, who will they fight, Japan?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
OK, who will they fight, Japan?
It depends on what the alliance system looks like at that point in time. Indeed, I wouldn't rule out the creation of a coalition of countries located at Russia's periphery which includes Britain, Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, and Japan.
 
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