My bias is that 1914 had so many pressures culminating at once that it was the proverbial camel's back, but that said, I think the July Crisis was not the certain straw it became. And I do not believe that FF surviving dooms A-H, but I think he is a bit more of an unknown than we assume. So first, I think that A-H will face a crisis over how to recognize its diverse population and give them enough freedom and prosperity to want to stay in the Empire. I do not think it simply happens in 1917 as has become the go-to, but I suspect that kettle boils over eventually. But so long as we have Russia to the East I think the gravity remains to hold it together.
My opinion is that Russia get big enough to push France into the British camp, France accepts that Alsace-Lorraine is gone and economic reality means it will have to seek accommodation with Germany as the biggest kid on the continent. The British should see Russia as a bigger threat than Germany and their relations will warm. All this improves as the generation change occurs with Wilhelm dying and the old Prussian generals retiring away. The Schlieffen plan should be regarded as dead by 1917 and Germany will soften its attitude, combined with the ongoing shift in political power to the SPD and other "liberal" forces, I think Germany refocuses on its economy while building a credible deterrent in the East.
I think the OE survives long enough to see its oil developed and then goes on path to become a serious power once more. It will be Russia's nemesis to the south but never quite as dependent on any of the other great powers, in effect it gets independent. A flashpoint will be its possible desire to reassert dominion over Arabia and push back the British. Germany, with A-H and the rest of central Europe, likely gets dependent on oil from OE, later the natural gas. Germany likely has a lot of investment but will lose influence, it should look like the American and Saudi relationship, complicated. Eventually OE may develop links to Japan as it exports oil from the gulf, we might see the Ottoman navy get cozy with Japanese builders and advisors. Japan may yet experience a transition to more of a true commercial power. I think the OE stays cool to Italy for a long time as Italy holds Libya, the islands and likely supports Britain in Egypt and the Red Sea.
Overall I think Russia has some serious internal obstacles but if it can hold it together it has the potential to become the first super power. That changes everyone's math. It will always be a land based power but will eventually return to its navy, once it does it becomes a threat to the RN, USN and IJN, those countries all want Russia contained. The flash points should be China and Persia. The OE will have a dog in this hunt as Persia sees itself fought over, that has potential to begin the revival of Islamic identity that her passes into Russia.
The Balkans seem more likely to stabilize, Bulgaria is the main power, Romania is trapped between three great powers with Russia likely more menacing, Greece and Serbia become the primary pawns to push forward great power squabbles, and Russia will be making enemies as it continues to support its attempts to weaken A-H and OE positions.
Colonialism has a slower death, maybe just as many bush wars, but less ideology, it becomes about breaking into markets and weakening the British. The biggest event will be Indian independence, it might take longer and be done with less urgency but I think it breaks the Empire and lets the USA and Japan move up as the premier maritime powers, followed by the Russians and Germans further back. If Germany reorients its trade towards Russia it might become the high tech and industrial export house like Japan became to the USA, Russia might dominate heavy industries and enjoy exporting raw materials, wheat and so on, making an odd reorientation of Europe gravitating towards Russia rather than the USA.
The USA will become a major economic power, in the top three with Russia and the British Empire, likely Germany holding number four spot. The USA should remain a significant naval power and develop into a strategic air power but its army will wither. The British will remain the first tier naval power but not be as dominant long term. Japan should still rise and it becomes questionable its gets the Empire built on Manchuria. But I think China remains an imperial playground longer.
I think we have to assume that all sorts of strange new alignments and orientations might evolve, I think the global economy takes more influence, and the world has a more pronounced bias towards Europe, more wealth in Europe, the USA and Japan not as strong but part of that, the rest of the world perhaps just as poor and exploited. And I do not think I am even truly letting butterflies blossom.