WI: No Arab Spring?

Deleted member 96212

So, if Mohamed Bouazizi never set himself on fire, and therefore never triggered the Tunisian Revolution, would the Arab Spring even occur? What would be the effects had the Arab Spring never started?
 
In Egypt it wouldn't make much difference, as Sisi is little different from Mubarak. In Syria, though, it would've made a big difference. The nightmare of the past 5 years could've been avoided. Iran would've been better off as well and so would Hez. Btw those interested in Mideast history and alternate history, check my blog.:)
 
Morrocco: Democratic reforms of the monarch are butterflied away. Morrocco (and Oman) remain authoritarian monarchies.

Tunisia: Ben Ali remains in power till the present. The one successfully democratic transition in the Mid-East is butterflied away :(

Libya: Qadaffi or his son Saif Islam Qadaffi would be in charge. The later would have likely led a rapprochement with the West, consolidating his rule. Libya remains the cheif human rights abuser in North Africa.

Egypt: More stable. Ironcially a better human rights situation than the present. The Islamist movement would be stronger, as they were semi-tolerated during the Mubarak era. Now they face total extermination by the regime.

Syria: Nightmare averted. Assad retains his dictatorship. Hamas remains loyal to Damascus. Russian influence is weaker in Syria and Turkey as a consequence of there being no SYrian Civil War. Obama is viewed as "tougher" with no "red line violation" or the cancerous growth of ISIS.

Yemen: More stable. Saleh is still in power and so he doesn't commit treason and support the Houthi rebels.

Iraq: More stable. Shia oppression is likely worse. Sunni demonstrations are likely butterflied away without the Arab Spring. Malakai remains in power. ISIS experiences a smaller growth, likely not taking Mosul. Obama approval rating remains higher.
 
So, if Mohamed Bouazizi never set himself on fire, and therefore never triggered the Tunisian Revolution, would the Arab Spring even occur? What would be the effects had the Arab Spring never started?

We might not call the wave of unrest "the Arab Spring", but a wave of unrest would happen.

The Middle East was very hard hit by the crash of 2008. Additionally, crops around the world had been hard-hit by drought and fire, meaning food prices spiked pretty much everywhere. In the Middle East (one of the major food importing areas of the world and also relatively poor), this meant that middle class families were unable to afford enough food for three square meals a day. As Trotsky has been quoted as saying: “Any society is only three square meals away from a revolution”.

To avert the Arab Spring, you'd need to either prevent the US economy crashing, avoid the fires in wheat growing areas Russia or avoid the drought in Australia or some combination of those.

fasquardon
 
Things were probably on this point that without bouazizi's suicide things would have delayed with some years and might go differently. Several Arab dictators would still face problems.
 
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