WI - No American Civil War

Jasen, there you go, getting all facty here.
The question is, why did the civil war slow expansion out west? Or was it just that once you got past Minnesota there wasn't enough rain to make a go of it?
 

Neroon

Banned
Now, if Britain and France stopped paying so much for cotten and putting money into the slave-holders pockets, during the period of economic turbulence while slaves were shifted over to industry perhaps it would be easier to make a compromise.
What about this: Shortly after the British Empire abolishes slavery and begins it's "War on Slavery" some upper-class anti-slavery Brits remember the adage "follow the money" and decide to finance an early incrudoction of cotton plantations to India in order to eliminate Britains dependancy on Southern Cotton. Might this hurt the slave based economy in the South badly enough to force them to look for alternatives to their plantation economy?
 
Maybe Republican party will dissolve like the Whig party and maybe also that slavery in the United States will continue for entire 19th century and Abraham Lincoln will defeated for his re-election bid in 1864.
 
It has nothing to do with the Slave patrol: the international slave trade was outlawed in 1808. Southern Planters firmly supported it because they though that newly minted slaves would be more unruly.

Yes and no. Most did support it for the reason you cite, but there was another issue. With no new slaves imported, prices rose. Slaveholding states with a surplus of slaves profited handsomely from this and wanted to maintain the ban in the international slave trade. Slaveholding states with a shortage of slaves knew that new slaves from Africa would be cheaper, so some men argued for reinstating the slave trade and a smaller number even attempted to smuggle slaves from Africa.
 
A few ideas:

1. The Whig Party may still be around, since it primarily self-destructed over slavery.

2. Fremont, Lincoln and the Republican Party will disappear - or at least Lincoln will.

Since the Republican Party was largely descended from the Whig Party and it's members largely former Whigs, I don't see how you can say this. Lincoln was originally a Whig, as were all but one of the men considered for the 1860 Republican presidential nomination.

3. The loose interpretation of the Constitution endorsed by the North would run into opposition from the South. The national bank, major government improvements etc. will all be blocked by the South.

4. Some agreement on low tariffs or even no protectionalist tariffs will have to be agreed upon to the detriment of Northern companies in order that the free-trade South will continue onboard.

Actually, without the common bond of slaveholding, it's entirely possible that Arkansas, Missouri, Texas and perhaps Kentucky and Tennessee will see themselves as Western, not Southern states. And the West typically voted with the North when it came to tariffs and internal improvements.

For that matter, to afford compensated emancipation, the government will probably need to raise tariffs so I'd expect the South of TTL to be voting for high tariffs as well,

6. No pesky 14th and 15th Amendments.

Or they may come earlier. After all, the recently freed blacks will be competing with poor whites for jobs and probably treated as badly as they were post-Civil War in OTL, if not worse.

Alternately, the conflict that occured in OTL over abolition may instead occur over black suffrage. As in OTL, this will be most popular in the states with the least number of blacks, and this issue could easily result in a north-south split of both the Whig and Democratics Parties as happened in OTL.
 
What about this: Shortly after the British Empire abolishes slavery and begins it's "War on Slavery" some upper-class anti-slavery Brits remember the adage "follow the money" and decide to finance an early incrudoction of cotton plantations to India in order to eliminate Britains dependancy on Southern Cotton. Might this hurt the slave based economy in the South badly enough to force them to look for alternatives to their plantation economy?
Not really. Cotton is cheaper and better in the US anyways, and as long as the US is stable (and, really, it was and would be without a Civil War), then "follow the money" really translates into "invest in American cotton." Even during the Civil War, when Britain's cotton imports were cut and the idea to start trying to grow cotton in India took shape, British stores of surplus cotton held out. No Civil War, and you'd actually see the cotton-oversupply that happened post-Civil War happen a bit sooner, killing the profits to be made in Indian cotton. Why set up costly parallel infrastructure and investments when they already exist inside a friendly country who you already have a huge economic investments in?
 
No Civil War and the Carolina Tea Plantations started in the 1850's remain and become profitable.

Spanish American War in the 1860's over the Ostend Manifesto.
 
Let us suppose that during the 1820s to 1830s, men of good intent come together in the United States and bring about a peaceful agreed solution to the slavery issue that sees slavery ending in a way that both North and South can accept.

As a result, there is no American Civil War. So, what are the effects inside the United States and elsewhere?

I don't know that that first sentence is really possible. Think about it- Southerners didn't want slavery to end.

I think the best way to avoid the ACW is to have someone other than Lincoln elected in 1860, although that may just postpone instead of avoiding it altogether.
 
Spanish American War in the 1860's over the Ostend Manifesto.

Wouldn't that precipitate a civil war? There was interest in Cuba just because it would make the South stronger. This is merely 15-20 years after the Mexican-American War which was made mainly for the same reason, and originated a lot of protests in the abolitionist camp (including Lincoln).
 
I don't know that that first sentence is really possible. Think about it- Southerners didn't want slavery to end.
Right. Because it was profitable for them.

If, somehow, slavery stops being profitable (and one sure-fire [if near impossible] way to do this is to have Britain and France make slave-produced goods (and cotton) unprofitable, then the impetus to keep slavery would quickly die. It doesn't even have to be the actual loss of British/French trade: if it becomes a strong enough belief to the Southern elites that in the future (say, 10 years) slavery will become unprofitable, then they could be convinced to make concessions for compensated, gradual emancipation.

Then there's the possibility that the poor whites have a social movement that leads them becoming anti-slavery (because slaves steal their jobs!), and the majority of southern voters voting in new, non-slaveholding elites who are more prone to compromise.


I think the best way to avoid the ACW is to have someone other than Lincoln elected in 1860, although that may just postpone instead of avoiding it altogether.
Lincoln wouldn't be a problem, if conspiracy nutters on the level of "McCain will bring the draft for a hundred years of constant war!11!!1!" weren't convinced that Lincoln was going to end slavery by force. Lincoln wasn't supportive of making slavery constitutionally legal, but a regular legislative compromise on securing te South's rights to slaves wasn't impossible either.
 
Spanish American War in the 1860's over the Ostend Manifesto.
Wouldn't that precipitate a civil war? There was interest in Cuba just because it would make the South stronger. This is merely 15-20 years after the Mexican-American War which was made mainly for the same reason, and originated a lot of protests in the abolitionist camp (including Lincoln).
While OTL it was the South that pushed to annex Cuba, the northern business interests were also in favor.
It was the northern Politicians courting the Abolitionists, who killed the idea.

Here with no Slavery, Both North and south would work together to annex Cuba.
 
1830's --
no Nat turner Rebellion - Virginia passes gradual Emancipation. Kentucky follows suit.
1840 --
As free blacks count as whole persons Virginia and Kentucky each gain a seat in Congress.
1840's --
Seeing the results of Virgina's emancipation Tennessee and Arkansas also pass Emancipation plans,
So do Marysland & Delaware. Thro There are not Enuff Slaves in either of these states to change the representation.
1845--
Texas and Florida join the union as Slave States, but both have emancipation plans set to begin in the 1850's.
The large Cattle Ranches and other non slave businesses in the two territories help carry the plans passage.
1850--
Despite large numbers of Slaves being sold south. There are enuff free blacks that the four states each gain a seat in Congress.
Most of the other sotherern States all lose a Seat, to the rapid growth in the North.
1850's--
The four States push Emancipation as a way for the other Southerern States to counter the Northern immigration gains.
North Carolina is the first of the Deep South States to pass Emancipation, followed by Louisiana.
Louisiana's plan is one of the most Liberal and fastest of the southerern plans.
1860--
While only Louisiana gains a seat, non of the other Plan States lose a seat, unlike the deep south non plan States which each lose seats.
1863--
Supported by northern business, the deep south states launch a major filibustering expidition into Cuba.
Dispite Washington's official disapproval, Spain responded by declaring War, and attacking American Shipping in the Caribbean area.
1864~5--
Spanish American War
1870--
Again the southern plan states retained their seats while the non plan states lose seats.
1870's--
Under National pressure resulting from causing the Spanish-American War, And local pressure from the lose of representation--
The remaining Southern states pass Emancipation plans.
1910's--
The last Slaves in Mississippi are emancipated, and Slavery ends in the US.
 
One problem with your time line is that, I don't think Texas joins the union if they have to give up slavery. There are not the massive cattle ranches like King Ranch in 45. There is only a small minority who are opposed to slavery, and most of the business in the state also would of supported the issue. So if they had to come up with a plan to give up slavery to join the union, they people would not of voted for the bill. Also the biggest non-slave holders, the Hill country germans, voted historically to stay independent.
 

bard32

Banned
Have you seen the movie Amazing Grace? It's about the British parliamentarian William Wilberforce. He was responsible for banning slavery in the British Empire. Unfortunately, aside from William Lloyd Garrison, Frederick Douglass, Sojourner Truth, Harriet Tubman, and other abolitionists,
there weren't any men of good intent, in New England, or the South, who were willing to stand up to the slave trade. Why? Northerners were making money off the importation of slaves. Which, after 1807, was in effect, smuggling. If
there were men of good intent, or at least one, man of good intent, in Congress then, we could have ended slavery the same way the British did.
 

bard32

Banned
It has nothing to do with the Slave patrol: the international slave trade was outlawed in 1808. Southern Planters firmly supported it because they though that newly minted slaves would be more unruly.

Actually, it's far more likely if Garrison never does anything and it become purely a southern issue, but I think it best to agree to disagree.

It has everything to do with the antislave patrol. The slave trade was actually outlawed in 1807. Garrison did a good thing by bringing slavery to the forefront of American patrol. The reason why we didn't allow the Royal Navy
to inspect our ships, especially the Baltimore Clippers, was because of domestic politics. The American people didn't want the British to inspect our
ships for slaves because they knew that the British would find them. The
British MP, William Wilberforce, was a friend of John Newton, the former slave ship captain who wrote the greatest hymn ever---Amazing Grace. The
Southern Planters loved the way things were because they could beat the slaves within an inch of their lives and get away with it. If you haven't the
movie, I suggest you either buy, or rent it, because William Wilberforce was
a man of great conviction. It took him ten years to outlaw slavery in the British Empire. It took us almost sixty years. Men of good intent didn't didn't
act in a timely manner.
 
Have you seen the movie Amazing Grace? It's about the British parliamentarian William Wilberforce. He was responsible for banning slavery in the British Empire. Unfortunately, aside from William Lloyd Garrison, Frederick Douglass, Sojourner Truth, Harriet Tubman, and other abolitionists,
there weren't any men of good intent, in New England, or the South, who were willing to stand up to the slave trade. Why? Northerners were making money off the importation of slaves. Which, after 1807, was in effect, smuggling. If
there were men of good intent, or at least one, man of good intent, in Congress then, we could have ended slavery the same way the British did.

I was very impressed with the movie Amazing Grace. What you are saying about Northerners - particularly New England shipowners - making money off of the importation of slaves is correct. I believe there were incidents of slave importing up until the ACW. I think the last trial was in New York City and it involved a Northerner ship captain.
 

Xen

Banned
What if Texas does not give up slavery, and decides not to join the Union and remain an independent Republic. Virginia emancipates its slaves, and is followed by other states in the Upper South with in the next decade. Those who are most supportive of slavery in those states begin moving deeper south or to the Republic of Texas.

Now by the 1850s as more and more states are adopting emancipation plans, free states now out number slave states by a good margin, giving them control of Congress. Seeing the writing on the wall, slave owners begin to take their slaves and move to the Republic of Texas. Eventually the US bans slavery in its borders, while the institution remains active in neighboring Texas.

Its likely to see the United States move west into Mexico anyway, having access to the Pacific was always an important goal, and Manifest Destiny still as of yet lives. A war with Britain over Canada is not likely, so Mexico it is. Ironically the United States is allied with the Republic of Texas who wants to create a massive southwestern Empire.

Could this create tension between the US and Texas? A lot of the land was seen as worthless in the nineteenth century. Maybe by this time California has become an independent Republic with the support of France and Britain, and perhaps an independent, landlocked Mormon Republic of Deseret? The only western ports for the United States are in OTL Oregon and Washington states, perhaps a little bit of California would become part of Oregon. If these options are blocked, say by British Canada, then the US becomes interested in building the Nicaragua Canal much sooner, and we have US foreign adventures into the Caribbean and Central America. Most certainly a different United States, quite possibly (Most likely) a very different Canada.

Sorry Im rabling now, just got the wheels in my head turning, they are a bit rusty.
 

bard32

Banned
Let us suppose that during the 1820s to 1830s, men of good intent come together in the United States and bring about a peaceful agreed solution to the slavery issue that sees slavery ending in a way that both North and South can accept.

As a result, there is no American Civil War. So, what are the effects inside the United States and elsewhere?

A stronger James Buchanan proposes a law to free the slaves. If the slaveholders in Congress refuse to comply, then they'd be clamped in irons.
 

bard32

Banned
I was very impressed with the movie Amazing Grace. What you are saying about Northerners - particularly New England shipowners - making money off of the importation of slaves is correct. I believe there were incidents of slave importing up until the ACW. I think the last trial was in New York City and it involved a Northerner ship captain.

So was I. In February, 2007, the History Channel aired an excellent special about the slave trade. The problem was that since the 1820s, when the Navy
began its own antislavery patrol, it used ships too big to fit into shallow waters. The Royal Navy captured more ships than we did. When the RN captured slave ships, their cargo was offloaded in Sierra Leone, and the ships
themselves, usually Baltimore Clippers, were purchased into the Royal Navy.
Americans wouldn't allow British sailors to board their ships to check them for
slaves because they remembered the War of 1812. Plus, at the same time,
the RN and the USN, were busy fighting the Pirates of the Caribbean. (No,
not the romantic Disney fantasies with Johnny Depp, as Captain Jack Sparrow.) I'm talking about men like Jean Lafite, who operated out of New
Providence in the Bahamas. It wasn't only the New England shipowners who
benefited. It was also New England newspapers like The Hartford Courant.
 
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