Mostly agreeing, but OP removed one of the Berber Dynasties : you have a lot of them existing or potential in Maghrib after the collapse of Umayyad rule.and you are removing that.
I agree that the development of a Valencian kingdom is underestimated, but it would still be largely dependent (probably more) of foreign support than Leon/Castille. I could see a distinct Valencian dialect (either from Hispano-Romance or Occitano-Romance ensemble) arising from the various settlement (akin to what existed in Norman Italy), but not something utterly "other" geopolitically and culturally.The survival of an independent kingdom of Valencia under Christian leadership, wether as a kingdom of its own or as a vassal of Leon-Castile once Zaragoza is taken out, is certainly a colorful and not explored development. Maybe an actually separate Romance language called Valencian is developed ITTL
They mostly par-achevied the work when it come to Mozarabs : by the Xth century, Islamisation of the native population was well underwent and what greatly helped Andalusian Christianism was the arrival of "neo-Mozarabs" with the Christian immigration in Muslim Spain (which as well greatly helped the transition between Islamic and Christian rule for Mozarabs). But by the XIth, it's too late to say the bulk of rural population was still Christian.As for less evident consequences, the Almoravid/Almohad interludes also islamized southern Spain more than we tend to think, both because of prolonging Muslim rule there and the outright flight of Mozarabs and Jews to the Christian kingdoms
Not that odd, actually : Saragossa was an hard nut to crack (wealthy, well fortified, stronger Arabo-Berber presence, etc.) and eventually Leon/Castille went for easier preys. Aragon mostly filled the gap when Almoravids pressured the taifa in the south.oddly mirroring the territories that Aragon would take later)
ITTL, assuming a late Berber takeover of what remains of al-Andalus, I wouldn't see Aragon (or Leon/Castille) having as much opportunities (in a first time at least), ironically.
You could basically split Andalusian part of military into four groups.What about the Andalusian Muslim population?
- Junds (regiments). Mostly hereditary at this point, and largely declining.
- Urban militias. Largely local, and not really used, due to a relatively poor quality, and lack of real reliability (politically, for instance).
- Hashids. The equivalent to piétaille, rank and file.
- Mujahid. Sort of lay fighting monastic orders. We're touching to some actual quality there, admittedly, but reduced in numbers.
Then you had the bulk of Andalusian armies, the mercenaries, themselves divided between permanently raised mercenaries (murtaziqa) and the raised mercenaries that were promised part of loot as payment (mujahids).
While, technically, several districts owed a militart service since the Xth, it was never really applied because Andalusian armies proper weren't considered as good (which was true) or reliable (which is an extremely common feature in the whole of Arabo-Islamic world). It was seen as better to have "houseold" armies (composed by slaves, mostly) as more fidels (the notion of fidelity between an army and a dynasty as you had in Rome, let alone vassalic link as in Europe, didn't really existed as such in the medieval Arabo-Islamic world); or using foreign mercenaries arguing that they were foreign to inner networks.
It costed a lot, but Umayyad Spain could afford it, trough wealth AND geopolitical control of Maghrib. Taifas? Not really : they had to deal with mostly local armies and limited mercenaryship which meant small armies (Seville took over Cordoba with less than 2000 men).
As said above : I don't think Islamic Spain will fall in its entierty by the XIth or even early XIIth : Christian kingdoms can only conquer so far without overstretching themselves, and a Berber takeover is bound to save what remains of al-Andalus sooner or later. Of course, we're talking of a much reduced Islamic Spain compared to IOTL.Is it fair to say that if Islamic Spain falls to Christian rulers by then that this flowering doesn't happen?
While I could see the falsafa having a more pessimistic tone, and al-Andalus being possibly a secondary center compared to Syria (or even Africa in the case of an exile before Christian advance as it was observed IOTL in the XIVth century).