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I made an interresting thought experiment a while ago. What if Italy never went to war with Abyssinia. Not thinking of what effects it would have on East Africa or the League of Nations, but the bigger butterflies.

If Mussolini hadn't got the sweet taste of imperialistic victory in 1936 would he start to realize that his crazy dream of a Mediterranean empire actually might come true. If he still was more cautious, Hitler might in his mind still be a silly clown, and a threat to Italy's vital interests. Mussolini and Hitler might never had approached eachother, and instead Mussolini would work with France and Britain for a strengthened Stresa Front.

With no Abyssinian campaign Laval would never had become "Lavallini" after the revelation of the Hoare- Laval plan, and he would not had been pushed to the fringes of French politics. I know too little about French politics to be sure if he could win or lose in the elections '36, but even if he did lose he would still probably be the prominent voice of the opposition, and a staunch speaker of an alliance to contain Germany. Even a Popular Front government like the OTL government could probably not ignore him (The Popular Front was a very unstable government anyway), and be a more active force. France could very well not go down the appeasement road, but instead continue to be strongly anti- German and not willing to give Hitler an inch.

With France not being an appeaser, Britain would probably not be it either. Britain started to appease Germany because France did it, Britain had nothing to gain by resisting Hitler alone. So with an active France and Italy, Britain would most probable also actively resist German expansionism.

What about the USSR?? If Britain, France and Italy all showed strong signs they were not letting Hitler expand there would not be a Molotov- Ribbentrop pact. Stalin would not change his foreign policy, and continue to be strongly anti- German.

So, with this scenario could WW2 start with a German attempt of Anschluss, which result in Italy mobilizing their forces to protect Austria, followed by Britain and France???

Your thoughts? What would the PoD be to get Mussolini ignore Abyssinia?? Do I need to get rid of the Spanish Civil War to make sure Hitler and Mussolini never become pals??
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