WI; No Abyssinian War

yourworstnightmare

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I made an interresting thought experiment a while ago. What if Italy never went to war with Abyssinia. Not thinking of what effects it would have on East Africa or the League of Nations, but the bigger butterflies.

If Mussolini hadn't got the sweet taste of imperialistic victory in 1936 would he start to realize that his crazy dream of a Mediterranean empire actually might come true. If he still was more cautious, Hitler might in his mind still be a silly clown, and a threat to Italy's vital interests. Mussolini and Hitler might never had approached eachother, and instead Mussolini would work with France and Britain for a strengthened Stresa Front.

With no Abyssinian campaign Laval would never had become "Lavallini" after the revelation of the Hoare- Laval plan, and he would not had been pushed to the fringes of French politics. I know too little about French politics to be sure if he could win or lose in the elections '36, but even if he did lose he would still probably be the prominent voice of the opposition, and a staunch speaker of an alliance to contain Germany. Even a Popular Front government like the OTL government could probably not ignore him (The Popular Front was a very unstable government anyway), and be a more active force. France could very well not go down the appeasement road, but instead continue to be strongly anti- German and not willing to give Hitler an inch.

With France not being an appeaser, Britain would probably not be it either. Britain started to appease Germany because France did it, Britain had nothing to gain by resisting Hitler alone. So with an active France and Italy, Britain would most probable also actively resist German expansionism.

What about the USSR?? If Britain, France and Italy all showed strong signs they were not letting Hitler expand there would not be a Molotov- Ribbentrop pact. Stalin would not change his foreign policy, and continue to be strongly anti- German.

So, with this scenario could WW2 start with a German attempt of Anschluss, which result in Italy mobilizing their forces to protect Austria, followed by Britain and France???

Your thoughts? What would the PoD be to get Mussolini ignore Abyssinia?? Do I need to get rid of the Spanish Civil War to make sure Hitler and Mussolini never become pals??
 
Hitler and Mussolini already had their stand-off over Austria in 1934.

Following this Mussolini looked at the Balkans and Abyssinia to fulfill his dream of Empire.

The best outcome of a no-Abyssinian war would probably be no Italian lessons learned and no introduction of new types of aircraft, armour-flimsies etc. :D
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
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Hitler and Mussolini already had their stand-off over Austria in 1934.

Following this Mussolini looked at the Balkans and Abyssinia to fulfill his dream of Empire.

The best outcome of a no-Abyssinian war would probably be no Italian lessons learned and no introduction of new types of aircraft, armour-flimsies etc. :D
Yes, but without the Abyssinian war Mussolini would note have got the taste of victory, and would still think the Italian Empire is a project of the future, not the present. Thus still feeling that the defence of Austria is the defence of Italy. The reason he turned to the Germans after Abyssinia was that he knew he would come in conflict with britain and France over his plans to keep expanding Italy.

Also, Laval would not be discredited in France, there would still be a loud anti- Hitler voice (a voice that OTL funny enough became pro- Hitler in the Vich regime.)
 
What would the PoD be to get Mussolini ignore Abyssinia?
Not an easy task. The invasion of Abyssinia was the crowning of Mussolini imperialistic delusions. It came after Mussolini started to believe his own a propaganda, as always a deadly mistake for any dictator.

Anyway there are a few possibilities:


  • Abyssinia could accept a sort of italian protectorate and maybe a border adjustment. It wouldn't create a lot of problems with the british and french public opinion (well, less than annexation) and Italy could avoid economic sanctions. Difficult to achieve, since the relations between Italy and Abyssinia had got worser and worser after 1930, but not impossible with a bit of diplomacy.
  • Hoavre-Lavalle plan is kept secret and later accepted by both Italy and Abyssinia. As the point above, difficult, but not impossible.
  • A large insurrection in Libya (or Somalia) could tie down enough troops to make Mussolini postpone the invasion to a later date.
  • A political crisis in Europe could convince Mussolini to save the troops for a possible use at home.
Of these, my favourite is the last one. Ideally Mussolini should pick up another fight with Hitler over a country that Mussolini saw under the italian sphere of influence. Maybe some meddling with Hungary, with which Italy had a treaty (mind you I'm away from my books).
This way Mussolini would see Hitler as a dangerous enemy, rather than a possible ally.

The long term conseguences of a different italian attitude are enormous: Hitler's expansionistic aspirations would have been challenged sooner, probably in 1938, at the annexation of Austria, or at Munich in the worst of cases.
With the Stresa front compact against him, Hitler could only declare war and be beaten or renouce his plan and take a huge reputation hit. Besides the german economy would have collapsed without war to fluel her.

As for Russia, I don't think that Stalin would risked any expansion without an agreement with Hitler. So if Germany is defeated early in 1938, Stalin would probably choose a "softer" foreign policy. Probably, the baltic republics ans Finland would keep their indipendence, at least for the time.

A part from all this, don't you find highly ironic that the free world would own his peace and prosperity to a filthy dictator? :D
 

yourworstnightmare

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Donor
Hmm, I feel that no Abyssinia would mean a surviving Stresa Front (WW2 in '38 everyone)

I think Stalin's ambitions depend on Poland. If Germany invade Poland Stalin might intervene to save the Poles, and annex the eastern regions as OTL.
 
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