Bush however had problems being elected during his second term because the war in Iraq dragged on. Remember that.Bush was elected to a second term over a rather narrow victory in Ohio. His appeal was heavily centered on security from terrorism. Without 9/11, the fear factor is less and he is likely to lose Ohio, creating a sort of "poetic justice" as Kerry wins the electoral vote while losing the popular vote.
Who wins in 2008 depends entirely on whether the banking meltdown could have been avoided. Would/could the Kerry administration have cracked down on the frivolous lending practices? If yes, he has a good chance for a second term. He may replace Edwards with Hillary Clinton as VP, if the former's marital infidelity is exposed.
I doubt Kerry would. There were alot of toxic loans floating around (currently in the trillions), and these deregulations occured under Clinton while he was busy with Monica. I doubt another democrat would change things around.