WI: No 9-11

Bush was elected to a second term over a rather narrow victory in Ohio. His appeal was heavily centered on security from terrorism. Without 9/11, the fear factor is less and he is likely to lose Ohio, creating a sort of "poetic justice" as Kerry wins the electoral vote while losing the popular vote.

Who wins in 2008 depends entirely on whether the banking meltdown could have been avoided. Would/could the Kerry administration have cracked down on the frivolous lending practices? If yes, he has a good chance for a second term. He may replace Edwards with Hillary Clinton as VP, if the former's marital infidelity is exposed.
Bush however had problems being elected during his second term because the war in Iraq dragged on. Remember that.

I doubt Kerry would. There were alot of toxic loans floating around (currently in the trillions), and these deregulations occured under Clinton while he was busy with Monica. I doubt another democrat would change things around.
 
Kerry would be a doubtful '04 nominee. Much of what got him in was the idea that he could present himself as someone with military experience in contrast to the chickenhawks of the Bush cabinet.
 
well Katrina was in late august of 05, so the government response may very well have been different in TTL, since you would butterfly away DHS and if he doesn't get re elected then the next president may very well put somebody competent in charge of FEMA. I could easily see bush and Cheney getting involved in some kind of scandal involving some government contracts or something else seeing as how they made decisions like somebody would when picking players for a pickup game of hockey. All those emergency powers that the administrative branch claimed would be butterflied away as well as torture. Who knows if gay marraige would even be an issue at the same time it was IOTL, maybe the whole thing blows over too early to have an effect on the 04 election, in which case I'm pretty sure that Bush would not be able to secure a second term.
 
Bush was elected to a second term over a rather narrow victory in Ohio. His appeal was heavily centered on security from terrorism. Without 9/11, the fear factor is less and he is likely to lose Ohio, creating a sort of "poetic justice" as Kerry wins the electoral vote while losing the popular vote.

Who wins in 2008 depends entirely on whether the banking meltdown could have been avoided. Would/could the Kerry administration have cracked down on the frivolous lending practices? If yes, he has a good chance for a second term. He may replace Edwards with Hillary Clinton as VP, if the former's marital infidelity is exposed.

But the reason he lost support and almost lost in 04 was because of things stemming from 9/11 and his reaction to it (Iraq, and what have you). If there is no 9/11, there is none of that. He may not be widely lauded as any great, but I doubt he'd be widely detracted.
 
But the reason he lost support and almost lost in 04 was because of things stemming from 9/11 and his reaction to it (Iraq, and what have you). If there is no 9/11, there is none of that. He may not be widely lauded as any great, but I doubt he'd be widely detracted.


The approval ratings for President George W. Bush:


gwbapproval.png



When Bush was elected to his first term after a very narrow and exceptionally contested victory, he was generally considered a typical one term president. The attacks gave him a huge boost in popular acceptance, the Iraq war and Saddam's capture resulted in similar bumbs. His popular acceptance came down to pre-9/11 levels only in late '03, and considering that his ratings were already in a downtrend or at best staying level before 9/11, it looks like he would have had to pull off something pretty extraordinary to carry him safely to a second term.
 
The approval ratings for President George W. Bush:


gwbapproval.png



When Bush was elected to his first term after a very narrow and exceptionally contested victory, he was generally considered a typical one term president. The attacks gave him a huge boost in popular acceptance, the Iraq war and Saddam's capture resulted in similar bumbs. His popular acceptance came down to pre-9/11 levels only in late '03, and considering that his ratings were already in a downtrend or at best staying level before 9/11, it looks like he would have had to pull off something pretty extraordinary to carry him safely to a second term.

All that graph indicates is that his popularity leveled off back to the normal level it began with. And a 60 percent approval is nothing to scoff at. You must also take into account all the real stuff that happened in that TL pertaining to 9/11. He may not have held much pizazz, but there's little to indicate heavy disapproval.
 
Why would Katrina occur at all if 9/11 didn't happen? I am pretty sure a divergence of this level would butterfly away any of the weather we experienced post 9/11.
 
Why would Katrina occur at all if 9/11 didn't happen? I am pretty sure a divergence of this level would butterfly away any of the weather we experienced post 9/11.


Consumerist actually brings up a good point. However trying to predict the weather due to a POD is impossible. It is very much easier just to assume the weather is going to be the same after the POD.
 
that this prevents Iraq.

Bush and Co. are still convinced he has WMD, and are still hellbent on going after them.

They could have been hellbent to eternity and back but there was no chance of the US jumping into global police action number 4,566 (also known as the Iraq war [although without a dow I don't like the term]. Zero chance you have little more than cruise strikes or at the very very most special forces hitting Iraq if no 9-11.
 
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