WI: No 9/11 or anything similar

The Democrats retake the House and broaden their majority in the Senate in 2002 thanks to a weak economy and the Bush administration being tied to the Enron Scandal. After that, Bush does what Clinton did after 1994 and triangulates to a second term, although Bush's win is much more narrow than Clinton's in 1996 as I doubt the Rust Belt is gonna recover economically any quicker than it did OTL. The Democrats lose seats, but manage to keep both Houses of Congress. Bush then goes rightward in 2005 and 2006. With that, and with a foreign crisis of sorts, 2006 is a repeat of 1974. The Democrats (likely with Hillary Clinton) narrowly retake the Presidency in 2008, only to have the financial crisis hit in 2009. The Republicans retake the House and Senate in 2010 and with it the Presidency in 2012. Said Republican wins another term in 2016, only to have a politically rocky second term. The Democrats retake Congress in 2018 and take the Presidency back in 2020.
 
With a better economy and no Iraq albatross around his neck imo Bush does better than OTL. Imo you see various 2010s shifts in the white vote kicking off earlier without Bush's OTL post-9/11 policy of trying to keep the status quo going as much as possible+attempting to keep populist types from influencing tne GOP. Not having a 9/11 removes those efforts, plus consider the fact that Dubya was willing to at least _try_ in the rustbelt unlike mccain/romney/all the non-trump 2016 reps.

No 9/11 means a GOP that'd likely have a Trump-type wing because of this. Not that large or influential, but it'd exist the way the tea partiers do/did.

My thoughts on 2004 below:

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Hillary Clinton, probably. Given the lack of pressing issues and the relatively conservative "vibe" of then, she probably attempts the "(non redneck/catholic) social conservatism+(better managed than the reps, supposedly) capitalism+at least paying lipservice to identity politics" the dems seem to be trying to rebrand themselves as in the late 2010s. It wouldn't work plus would alienate enough social liberals to have side effects down the line. If we do an analogy for what happened with the kerry types, I suspect 2019 democrats in TTL would ironically end up evolving in a direction like OTL's Kerry dems, but more socially liberal given the liberalization of the US as the GIs/silents finish dying off.

I assume Biden or Kerry or Edwards in 2008.
 
Hillary Clinton, probably. Given the lack of pressing issues and the relatively conservative "vibe" of then, she probably attempts the "(non redneck/catholic) social conservatism+(better managed than the reps, supposedly) capitalism+at least paying lipservice to identity politics" the dems seem to be trying to rebrand themselves as in the late 2010s. It wouldn't work plus would alienate enough social liberals to have side effects down the line. If we do an analogy for what happened with the kerry types, I suspect 2019 democrats in TTL would ironically end up evolving in a direction like OTL's Kerry dems, but more socially liberal given the liberalization of the US as the GIs/silents finish dying off.

I assume Biden or Kerry or Edwards in 2008.
Don't think Gore will try again in this timeline?
 
You get Dems getting some midterm seats in 2002, a recession in 2003 which wipes Bush out in 2004. 2004 is too soon for Hillary, so we get a Kerry/Biden/Edwards race for Dem nomination.

I'm going to say in the wake of Enron and Kerry and Biden splitting the more establishment Dems, Edwards more populist approach wins, he becomes president. His affair is butterflied away. I'm going to say he picks Wesley Clark as VP.

The First Lady makes Health Care a huge priority, we get something like the ACA after her death in 2010, and something along the lines of the CFPB is also established- Warren gets to head it this time. This leads to a Tea Party like status, and Romney defeats Hillary Clinton in 2012, presides over a successful economy.

Warren does not run for president in 2020 despite calls to do so. The big 2020 nominees are Franken (progressive branch- until his scandal torpedoes him), Obama (nominee, center of the party), and Biden (done in by a stupid comment towards Obama that is slightly racist). Obama beats Paul Ryan in 2020 in a landslide due to a big recession caused by repeal of ACA.

The big differences:
a few more civil liberties- airports are a lot nicer
stronger consumer rights, but this TL's ACA is repealed in 2017. Obama is running on the public option and will make that his priority in 2021. Attempts to dismantle/neuter the CFPB fail though.
Republicans less overtly racist, but injustices happen just as often.
trans military ban never gets repealed, trans rights aren't as prominant. Gay marriage gets repealed as OTL.
Democratic supreme court which leads to gerrymandering being struck down
NC is fully purple
 
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