WI: No 9/11 Attacks?

What if the 9/11 hijackers were apprehended before they could carry out their attacks? What would be the effects?
 

Chris

Banned
What if the 9/11 hijackers were apprehended before they could carry out their attacks? What would be the effects?

Well, the twin towers survive. Afganistan continues to be run by the Taliban, who might well defeat the northern allience completely in the coming few months, barring an intervention by Iran or Russia. Saddam remains in Iraq. Bush may or may not seek reelection (without 9/11 he won't have so much of an oppotunity to show his better qualities) but I don't think that it will be Kerry who stands against him. It might be Hilary in this timeline.

I would expect more instensive operations against AQ regardless, as the plot would have been discovered even if it had failed, but it is unlikerly that there would be an invasion of aftanistan. Perhaps the US finds common ground, shock horror, with Iran towards a joint intervention into Afganistan, or maybe there are just a few more cruise missiles.

Iraq's santions will maybe burst at some point. Just what effect this will have in the long run remains questionable.

Chris
 
IMO as the whole point of Al Queda's actions was to keep hitting the USA until they succeeded in provoking them into a major reaction, in the hope that the US backlash would radicalise elements of the world's Muslim population (which is IMO exactly what has happened), they would keep trying until a plot succeeded.

So, sadly, instead of innocent American civilians dying in the New York on 9/11 others would die somewhere else in the USA on another date.

The interesting question to me is would they succeed before the US invaded Iraq anyway (as that invasion IMO had nothing to do with 9/11)?

If the Iraq invasion occurs before Al Queda manage to achieve a major attack on the US, they may decide there is no need for an attack as the invasion of Iraq will have the effect they are looking for.

Al Queda may be more powerful in this case, as they will have more popular support, and a secure base in Afghanistan. They may succeed in causing many more US casualties in Iraq and even effectively 'win' the conflict by pushing the US out of the cities.
 
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