WI no 2010 Polish air crash

So what would Russo-Polish relations look like today if the presidential jet hadn't crashed near Smolensk on its way back from the remembrance ceremony at Katyn?
 
Pretty much the same they look today. Bronisław Komorowski, backed by PO (Civic Platform) would have most probably won president election in 2010. Jarosław Kaczyński was close to victory IOTL mostly because of a big wave of sympathy to him after the loss of his brother and because he changed his tactcs to more moderate, gaining him some support from the undecided and moderate right wing electors (he blew it after his loss, when he said that when he decidede to follow this tactics he was on traquilizers); Lech Kaczyński wasn't so popular at the time as his brother likes to claim, so I think he would loose. So Polish foreign policy would have been decided by pretty much the same team it is today.
While PiS (Law nad Justice) today blames only Russians for the disaster in Smolensk, they do not decide Polish policy today; Russians even gained some points among Poles (for a short time, I'm affraid) for respect and sympathy swohn by Russian people to Poles after the crash. Unfortunately, Russian after-crash report, blaming only Poles did not help to improve Polish-Russian relations.
The most vocal anti-Russian groups in Poland were anti-Russian even before, the crash just gave them some more ammo, but ther radical behaviour and conspiracy theories cost them too. They also do not decide about Polish foreign policy.
So, iy would be business as usual, not very different from today.
 
I wonder what'd happen if it was the airplane with the Prime Minister that crashed. I'm sure than no helium-wielding Russians would be suspected...
 
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