WI: No 1979 Iranian Revolution; Effects on the world?

According to an article by Business Insider, the death knell of the Pahlavi monarchy in Iran was Shah Mohammed Reza's lymphatic cancer, which he acquired in 1973. As his health got worse, Reza became more paranoid and feared that his regime wouldn't outlive him. His modernization program was also hastened, adding onto the pile of problems that eventually exploded in 1979, leading to the radical islamist Iran we today know.
But what if the Shah was a healthier guy during his later reign? Assume that he lives till the late 80's or so, or even till OTL's fall of the USSR in 1991.
What are the effects on the Middle East, the Muslim world, and the world at large?
-Would Iraq stray closer to the Soviet Bloc, considering pre-1979 Iran's pro-American stance?
-What are the effects on Israel? No islamist regime in Iran possibly means that the Hezbollah gets less funding.
-How does this affect Jimmy Carter's presidency? With no Iran Hostage Crisis, do the stakes get further stacked against Reagan's favour in the 1980 election?
-Assuming that the USSR still falls, how will Iran interact with the now independent Central Asian and Caucasian states?
-What about Afghanistan? If the Soviet invasion still happens, i could see it being even more of a failure, if the Shah cooperates with the US to give covert support for the Mujahideen.
 
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No Islamic Republic of Iran means no Iran-Iraq War. That means no invasion of Kuwait later and no Desert Storm which sets off all kind of butterflies, most notably removing the biggest grievance Osama bin Laden had against the United States since there won't be US troops stationed in Saudi Arabia.

So we're possibly looking at a world where 9/11 never happens and George W. Bush doesn't have a chip on his shoulder regarding Saddam trying to kill his daddy.
 
@GauchoBadger No Iranian revolution in 1979? I think it was virtually inevitable given the corruption of the regime.

Islamism rose for a reason. The late 1970s saw a rising tide of Islamist ideas everywhere and this evolution has continued ever since. The secular modernists had become tarnished by decades of authoritarianism, political oppression, inequality and their pro-western policies were increasingly despised. There was a longing to return to a lost golden age, founded on the authentic Islamic culture of people right across the Muslim world. Defeat in the wars against Israel in 1967 and 1973, combined with the clear reality that the Shah was a western puppet, led to a real sense that the Muslim world was under attack, politically, culturally and morally. And that only a return to "true" Islamic practice could turn things around before it was too late.

Many leftists and Communists supported the revolution. Unfortunately they were betrayed and persecuted by Khomeini once he got into power. Perhaps had things gone differently things would be better for the country.

If no revolution happens at all, Iran would almost certainly be in a far better situation today in terms of its international relations and reputation (it could hardly be worse). Although the extraction of 90% of Iran's oil by the Anglo-Americans was going to have to stop some time.
 
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Does anything happen in Saudi Arabia instead?

Could a secular Shah, or possibly a Shia activist one (that could be how the regime survives) try and destabilise it?
 
Well, Saudi-Iranian relations might just end up being relatively positive. Plus taking into account that the Shah was a lover of American weaponry and so that could help weave the two nations militaries together somewhat. American-Israeli relations might actually get worse or not be as prominent as they are currently.
Considering the role of the Israeli lobby's role in screwing Saddam I can see similar attempts occur against Iran in this timeline.
It would depend on how the revolution is sidelined.
 

Cook

Banned
American-Israeli relations might actually get worse or not be as prominent as they are currently.
Considering the role of the Israeli lobby's role in screwing Saddam I can see similar attempts occur against Iran in this timeline.

Extremely unlikely, to say the least. Israel and the Shah's Iran had close military and intelligence ties; those ties survived the revolution to some degree and permitted the working relationship that saw, with US approval, the supply of spare parts for the Islamic Republic's F-4 fighter-bombers and missiles to arm them during the war with Iraq.

It is far more likely that, sans revolution, Israel and Iran would continue to maintain their good working relationship.
 
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But what if the Shah was a healthier guy during his later reign? Assume that he lives till the late 80's or so, or even till OTL's fall of the USSR in 1991.
What are the effects on the Middle East, the Muslim world, and the world at large?

Without the disruption caused by the '79 revolution, the Iranian military remains way too strong for Iraq, hence deterring the OTL 1980 attack.

-Would Iraq stray closer to the Soviet Bloc, considering pre-1979 Iran's pro-American stance?

Sure.

-What are the effects on Israel? No islamist regime in Iranpossibly means that the Hezbollah gets less funding.

Not sure if Hez could turn to somebody else--Qhadafy(?). But no Iran-Iraq war could mean big problems for Israel. When trouble was brewing in Lebanon in 1981-82 Iraq might send big reinforcements to Syria. But there are other possibilities, like Iraq being tempted to encourage sunni resistance to Assad, to takeover the country.


-How does this affect Jimmy Carter's presidency? With no Iran Hostage Crisis, do the stakes get further stacked against Reagan's favour in the 1980 election?

Carter might not even have gotten the nomination. Without the hostage thing Kennedy might've gotten it.


-Assuming that the USSR still falls, how will Iran interact with the now independent Central Asian and Caucasian states?

It might entice them into its orbit.

-What about Afghanistan? If the Soviet invasion still happens, i could see it being even more of a failure, if the Shah cooperates with the US to give covert support for the Mujahideen.

Maybe the Soviets wouldn't have invaded without the Iranian revolution. They were concerned by islamic revolutions getting out of hand and spreading to their adjacent republics.
 
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