According to an article by Business Insider, the death knell of the Pahlavi monarchy in Iran was Shah Mohammed Reza's lymphatic cancer, which he acquired in 1973. As his health got worse, Reza became more paranoid and feared that his regime wouldn't outlive him. His modernization program was also hastened, adding onto the pile of problems that eventually exploded in 1979, leading to the radical islamist Iran we today know.
But what if the Shah was a healthier guy during his later reign? Assume that he lives till the late 80's or so, or even till OTL's fall of the USSR in 1991.
What are the effects on the Middle East, the Muslim world, and the world at large?
-Would Iraq stray closer to the Soviet Bloc, considering pre-1979 Iran's pro-American stance?
-What are the effects on Israel? No islamist regime in Iran possibly means that the Hezbollah gets less funding.
-How does this affect Jimmy Carter's presidency? With no Iran Hostage Crisis, do the stakes get further stacked against Reagan's favour in the 1980 election?
-Assuming that the USSR still falls, how will Iran interact with the now independent Central Asian and Caucasian states?
-What about Afghanistan? If the Soviet invasion still happens, i could see it being even more of a failure, if the Shah cooperates with the US to give covert support for the Mujahideen.
But what if the Shah was a healthier guy during his later reign? Assume that he lives till the late 80's or so, or even till OTL's fall of the USSR in 1991.
What are the effects on the Middle East, the Muslim world, and the world at large?
-Would Iraq stray closer to the Soviet Bloc, considering pre-1979 Iran's pro-American stance?
-What are the effects on Israel? No islamist regime in Iran possibly means that the Hezbollah gets less funding.
-How does this affect Jimmy Carter's presidency? With no Iran Hostage Crisis, do the stakes get further stacked against Reagan's favour in the 1980 election?
-Assuming that the USSR still falls, how will Iran interact with the now independent Central Asian and Caucasian states?
-What about Afghanistan? If the Soviet invasion still happens, i could see it being even more of a failure, if the Shah cooperates with the US to give covert support for the Mujahideen.
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