WI: No 1856-1857 Xhosa Cattle-killing Crisis

[Johannes Parisiensis]

In 1856, Nongqawuse,a prophetess, claimed their ancestors said that, unless all cattle and crops were destroyed, they would not come back, with their riches, to help destroying the settlers.

In a context of a recent defeat against the Britishs and of an epizootic lung sickness affecting cattle, about 85% of the Xhosa population adhered to the movement.

The population of British Kaffraria dropped from 105,000 to fewer than 27,000 due to the resulting famine - 40,000 starved to death and 40,000 others went to work in the Cape Colony; about 600,000 acres, or about 250,000 hectares, were given to German settlers; the social structures, based around cattle, were destroyed, and this ended the Kaffir Wars for twenty years, until the finale.

So, what consequences on the Britisjh expension would have the non-happening of the Nongqawuse movement - for exemple, a lenghtened resistance?

 

[Alex Richards]

Well, given the fact that the loss of land, resources and prestige was causing rising tensions within the Xhosa at the time, it's not completely clear cut that averting it without changing the underlying strategic situation is going to prevent large population losses, though I would expect any that occur from internecine violence to be smaller than those from the Cattle-Killing movement.

I would expect the states to be more able to resist though, possibly enough so that Bartle-Frere's adventurism is unable to gain traction having to actually conquer the Xhosa rather than just exert a modicum of pressure. Considering that his views on expansion of the Cape and the Confederation Wars- largely against the wishes of the populace in Cape Colony and with only ambivalent support from London- were a large component of the Zulu War and Anglo-Boer Wars, that begins to create pretty drastic changes in South Africa and the wider abroad.

Overall, I suspect that the Xhosa, by that point, are going to end up annexed to the Cape at some point, but it may result in a very different southern Africa overall.

 

[Space Oddity]

As I understand it, there's a theory that the entire thing was an effort by the chief to basically get the Xhosa into a "fight or die" mentality. Which backfired horribly.

 

[Johannes Parisiensis]

As I understand it, there's a theory that the entire thing was an effort by the chief to basically get the Xhosa into a "fight or die" mentality. Which backfired horribly.

Wasn't the "Chiefs' plot" theory disproved?

 

[Johannes Parisiensis]

Well, given the fact that the loss of land, resources and prestige was causing rising tensions within the Xhosa at the time, it's not completely clear cut that averting it without changing the underlying strategic situation is going to prevent large population losses, though I would expect any that occur from internecine violence to be smaller than those from the Cattle-Killing movement.

Would these divisions ease the European penetration?

Overall, I suspect that the Xhosa, by that point, are going to end up annexed to the Cape at some point, but it may result in a very different southern Africa overall.

I read the descendants of these Xhosa refugees became big figures in the trade unions and political parties, due to them being among the first blacks to be introduced to a wage economy.

Moreover, what effect would have the non-settlement of the work shortage in the Cape?

 

[Alex Richards]

Would these divisions ease the European penetration?

They did to an extent anyway OTL. Not all the Xhosa speakers- those habitually referred to as the Xhosa- are technically Xhosa. You've got the two 'true Xhosa' groups- the Rharhabe and the Gcaleka- officially under the leadership of the latter but with some internal disputes. Then you've got the different groups who are considered to have assimilated into the Xhosa but are essentially separate tribes-the Thembu migrating in from elsewhere, the Pondo who have been there since perhaps as early as the 6th Century whereas the Xhosa migrated south about a millennium later. Then there's the Fengu who were refugees from the Shaka's wars and settled across the area- many becoming mercenaries for the British in return for land during the Xhosa Wars, and finally you've got the Bhaca who have usually been lumped in but are basically a separate group entirely and actually speak their own tongue- isiBhaca- which is a hybrid between Xhosa and Zulu.

I read the descendants of these Xhosa refugees became big figures in the trade unions and political parties, due to them being among the first blacks to be introduced to a wage economy.

Moreover, what effect would have the non-settlement of the work shortage in the Cape?

That certainly does make sense. As for the latter, possibly more immigration from Europe?