WI: No 1580 Portuguese succession crisis- Infante Duarte of Guimarães lives

OK I think most of us know about the 1580 succession crisis in Portugal, but for those who don't know here's some background info. In 1578 King Sebastian of Portugal invaded Morocco, officially to restore the deposed Sultan Abu Abdallah Mohammed II, but in reality a misguided goal of relaunching the Crusades and, along with much of his army, was killed at the Battle of Alcácer Quibir. As Sebastian was unmarried and childless, the throne passed to his great-uncle Cardinal-Infante Henry, who in turn also died unmarried and childless in 1580, triggering the crisis over who would inherit the throne.

The candidates, all descendants of King Manuel I, were António, Prior of Crato, the illegitimate (though he claimed otherwise) son of Manuel I's second son the Duke of Beja, Catherine, Duchess of Braganza, daughter of Manuel's sixth son (but the only other male issue of Manuel to marry and have heirs ) the Duke of Guimarães and finally King Felipe II of Spain, son of Manuel's eldest daughter Empress Isabel. The throne eventually when to the weakest claim, Felipe of Spain, after he invaded Portugal and took the throne by force.

However, a few years earlier there had been another Infante with a better claim then all three of the contenders, Infante Duarte, 5th Duke of Guimarães, brother to the Duchess of Braganza and the only legitimate male-line heir of Manuel I besides Sebastian and the Cardinal-Infante. Unfortunately, the Duke died (some say by his own hand) in 1576, after a row with King Sebastian.

If Infante Duarte hadn't died/committed suicide and Sebastian still died in battle (which was fairly likely considering the King's obsession with Crusading and conquering Morocco) then the Duke would have became Duarte II in 1580 when the Cardinal-King died. So what if he lived? Obviously Portugal would remain independent, but what else changes? How does the Portuguese Empire develop if its not bound to Spain and threatened by the Dutch? Who does Duarte II marry? Would Portugal, which under the last Avizs had kept out of most European affairs, have a more active foreign policy? Does this help or hinder Spain's wars with the Dutch and England? Please discuss:D!
 
How does the Portuguese Empire develop if its not bound to Spain and threatened by the Dutch?

Pretty much with greater strength than OTL. Without the Iberian Union, Portugal has no reason to support Spain or go to war with Spain's enemies for any reason whatsoever. However, just because that is the case does not necessarily dictate that such rivalries would not lead to war at some point. The Dutch after all were on the rise and a conflict, IMHO would most likely be inevitable.

Who does Duarte II marry?

Well, I dunno who I'd recommend. I'd say for one, there was Eleonora d'Este, the daughter of Ercole II, Duke of Modena-Ferrara, who was four years his senior. Another prospective is Maximiliana Maria, the daughter of Holy Roman Emperor Ferdinand I.

Would Portugal, which under the last Avizs had kept out of most European affairs, have a more active foreign policy?

Hey, don't fix what ain't broke, right? :D

Does this help or hinder Spain's wars with the Dutch and England? Please discuss:D!

With the Dutch, it'll be a help, if not initially, and only because the Dutch would want to undercut and maybe even replace Portugal as the dominant trading company in Asia.

As for England, won't be a help, but probably not a hinderance either. I don't think Portugal cared for England going Protestant, continuing the Anglo-Portuguese alliance. But at the same time, I also don't see Duarte II changing course what his father and the other Aviz-Beja did for Portugal, and that is staying the crud away from European affairs unless the homeland is directly threatened.
 
I'm personally skeptical that the Dutch would venture warring Portugal - at least to the frontal extent they did IOTL.

IOTL they had nothing to lose in attacking Portugal as a part of their war with Spain. ITTL they had enough on their plate already dealing with Spain. No matter how much they could covet the Portuguese empire, frontally attacking a third-party is a big decision to make when you're worried fencing off a great menace.

With that said, the Dutch, the English and everyone else will still ignore the Portuguese self-proclaimed monopoly in most of Asia and they'll create at least their own outposts and enter in direct conflict with Portugal in a far-away and mostly unofficial war.
 
Pretty much with greater strength than OTL. Without the Iberian Union, Portugal has no reason to support Spain or go to war with Spain's enemies for any reason whatsoever. However, just because that is the case does not necessarily dictate that such rivalries would not lead to war at some point. The Dutch after all were on the rise and a conflict, IMHO would most likely be inevitable.



Well, I dunno who I'd recommend. I'd say for one, there was Eleonora d'Este, the daughter of Ercole II, Duke of Modena-Ferrara, who was four years his senior. Another prospective is Maximiliana Maria, the daughter of Holy Roman Emperor Ferdinand I.



Hey, don't fix what ain't broke, right? :D



With the Dutch, it'll be a help, if not initially, and only because the Dutch would want to undercut and maybe even replace Portugal as the dominant trading company in Asia.

As for England, won't be a help, but probably not a hinderance either. I don't think Portugal cared for England going Protestant, continuing the Anglo-Portuguese alliance. But at the same time, I also don't see Duarte II changing course what his father and the other Aviz-Beja did for Portugal, and that is staying the crud away from European affairs unless the homeland is directly threatened.

That's similar to what I was thinking as well. Portugal had profited by staying out of most European affairs. Although I do think that the Dutch wouldn't be as eager to expand their war without reason. Part of the Dutch Casus belli came from being cut off from the Portuguese spice trade and the Portuguese merchants who used to base themselves out of the Low countries as a base for the sale of their spices in northern Europe. Here Portugal wouldn't place an embargo on the Dutch, so the economic reasons for the war are eliminated for the time being.

I wonder if the Eighty years war would last as long as it did without the Habsburg-Dutch conflict spreading into the colonies? Of course this also means that the Dutch are weaker economically for the time being and might not be able to grab control of the Eastern trade routes like OTL.

As for the marriage, Eleonora would be out. Considering that Duarto didn't marry OTL, chances are he would be single until Sebastian's death, if not until his own accession. At that point he'd be nearly or in his forties, so a 44-year-old bride would be unlikely. Considering the late Aviz marriage policy, I think Infanta Isabella would be top of the list. Or maybe a native, ie Portuguese noble match.

Finally, to England, wouldn't this be a help to Portugal's traditional ally? I mean Felipe II would be denied use of the port of Lisbon, access to Portuguese naval tradition and the Aviz navy. I wonder if this could cause Felipe to reconsider his war with England. Although that would probably depend more on Elizabeth's policy towards the Dutch rather than the situation in Portugal.

I'm personally skeptical that the Dutch would venture warring Portugal - at least to the frontal extent they did IOTL.

IOTL they had nothing to lose in attacking Portugal as a part of their war with Spain. ITTL they had enough on their plate already dealing with Spain. No matter how much they could covet the Portuguese empire, frontally attacking a third-party is a big decision to make when you're worried fencing off a great menace.

With that said, the Dutch, the English and everyone else will still ignore the Portuguese self-proclaimed monopoly in most of Asia and they'll create at least their own outposts and enter in direct conflict with Portugal in a far-away and mostly unofficial war.

Basically what I was thinking as well. No Dutch-Portuguese war, at least not at the same time as OTL, but potentially increased tensions over the other European powers entering their "turf".

Something else I hadn't considered, but what would the relations be between Portugal and Stuart England? James I and Charles I tended to be pro-Catholic in their foreign policies and the former aimed for a Spanish bride for the later. So could a Spanish/French bride be substituted here for a Portuguese Infanta? Could be interesting to see a revived Anglo-Portuguese alliance and its affects on the Habsburg-French rivalry.
 
My 5 cents.
I agree that Duarte will likely stay unmarried till 1580, and then he'll most likely marry an intended bride of Sebastian - Infanta Isabel Clara. Though she had fertility issues, it may be attributed to her OTL belated marriage, and this is the most doubtful point of this TL.
Duarte II will likely be pressed to marry her for purely political reasons, and we may got a "divorce drama" later in TL - especially dramatic if the inability of Spanish princess to produce a living heir is a benefit to Spain.
 
In fact we may not even got a Cardinal-King reign, as he'll likely abdicate in favor of his younger relative who can still plausibly produce heirs. Whether or not Isabel's fertility issues will bite Portugal in the ass or not is unknown.
 
Prior to 1595, when King Philip II of Spain placed an embargo on the Netherlands, the Netherlands had been Portugal's principal European trading partner. Flanders and later the Dutch purchased spices, sugar in Lisbon and resold it to Northern Europe as Portuguese merchants rarely ventured north of France. This was highly profitable for the Flemish and Dutch because they provided grain, naval stores from the Baltic and manufactured goods to Portugal. In reality by 1580, the Flemish and Dutch were reaping the benefits of much of Portugal's Indies trade as they provided Portuguese merchants with loans and insurance, without having to man the cost of building fortresses and ships in the East.

One of the most important goods acquired in Lisbon was actually salt from Setubal. This salt was considered the best to preserve herring. However, once the embargo was in place, the Dutch sent their own expeditions to modern day Venezuela to obtain salt. With the Portuguese freely selling salt to the Dutch, you may never see them settle Guiana or Sint Maarten (as it was a source of salt).

The embargo in 1595 led to the seizing of 400 Dutch ships in Spanish and Portuguese ports, and the need to bypass Portuguese and Spanish ports was the major impetus for the founding of the VOC. The union of crowns made Portugal a target. Though the embargo was lifted, it was reinstated in 1621, leading to the most violent attacks on Portuguese shipping and direct attacks on Portuguese ports. By 1630, the revenues from the Indies had dried up leading to the revolt in Lisbon by the nobles in 1640.

Keep in mind too that the Spanish Armada in 1588 sailed from Lisbon with a large part of the Portuguese navy being destroyed. The Iberian union led to Portugal being in direct conflict with England, France and the Netherlands at different times. This was a change from the previous policy of neutrality vis-a-vis European affairs pursued before 1580 and after 1640.

While I believe the Dutch may have still established colonies in the East, they most likely would have not been in a state of war with the Portuguese and directly attacked Portuguese possessions. I imagine they'd take the same route that the Danes did, establishing factories elsewhere.
 
So if we go with a TL of Duarte II marrying Infanta Isabel of Spain (he was not as fanatical as Sebastian, Spain promiced good dowry and as a last male of Aviz line he'll think his duty is to preserve the dynasty, and Isabel having her OTL fertility problems even in earlier marriage (stillborn or early-dying children(, 1590ies are going to be interesting times for Portugal:)
Isabel looks more genetically removed from Duarte than from her OTL husband, though, so it can be not that bad.
 
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