WI: Nixon went to Russia instead of China

I’m buffing up on my (compartively sparse) knowledge of Kissinger, and I was quite struck by the possibility that it was Soviet fear of a US-China alliance against the USSR that ultimately led to the recognition of China by the Nixon administration.

So, what if the opposite had happened? What if Nixon and Kissinger (or perhaps a later administration) decided that China was the greater long-term threat, and Moscow decided that it was better to find some common ground with the US, opposed to China?

Could this lead to economic liberalization in the USSR?
Could this lead to political liberalization in the USSR?
Could that lead to a survival of the USSR?
What of Eastern Europe, might the Soviets be less firm with their buffer states there?
How does the ROC still representing China in the UN change things?
How does the PRC deal with the vastly decreased opportunity for economic growth over the intervening decades?
How does this change things in North Korea?
Could the PRC fall apart akin to the USSR in OTL?
Whats our best case scenario?
Whats our worst case scenario?
 
I think Nixon’s move was at least partially motivated by Ho Chi Minh being closer to Moscow than to Beijing, so he went to China because they had common enemies in both the USSR and North Vietnam. Doing this in reverse doesn’t make much sense.
 

RousseauX

Donor
I’m buffing up on my (compartively sparse) knowledge of Kissinger, and I was quite struck by the possibility that it was Soviet fear of a US-China alliance against the USSR that ultimately led to the recognition of China by the Nixon administration.

So, what if the opposite had happened? What if Nixon and Kissinger (or perhaps a later administration) decided that China was the greater long-term threat, and Moscow decided that it was better to find some common ground with the US, opposed to China?

Could this lead to economic liberalization in the USSR?
Could this lead to political liberalization in the USSR?
Could that lead to a survival of the USSR?
What of Eastern Europe, might the Soviets be less firm with their buffer states there?
How does the ROC still representing China in the UN change things?
How does the PRC deal with the vastly decreased opportunity for economic growth over the intervening decades?
How does this change things in North Korea?
Could the PRC fall apart akin to the USSR in OTL?
Whats our best case scenario?
Whats our worst case scenario?
That's what the Nixon did do though, he went to both Beijing and Moscow

You had detente in the 1970s between US and USSR, arms reduction treaties etc

The problem is that the Soviets weren't willing to accept the stipulations of detente under which they do not seek to expand Communism in the third world. Soviet monkeying around in Africa and eventually Afghanistan broke it.

Fundamental issue is that China was willing to accept being junior partner to US, and didn't have room to expand except to attack US's enemy Vietnam.

Unless the USSR is willing to accept stopping the expansion of Communism into the third world and essentially junior partner status to USA, it probably won't last.
 
If Lin Biao had conquered over Mao. Kennedy style thinking about a us soviet alliance against china would have been expanded. Khrushchev had called for a joint strike against the PRC by the US, ROC AND USSR. Perhaps a joint space program also.
 

RousseauX

Donor
The other thing is what exactly does an alliance vs China entail

the Sino-American alliance was basically about tying down Soviet military assets on Sino-Soviet border and cooperate in funding anti-Soviet fighters in the third world

an alliance against China does....what exactly? China doesn't have big third world operations nor a military that needs to be tied down.
 
The issue was not whom the US regarded as the greater threat, it was which of the two Communist powers viewed the other as a such a threat that alliance with the US was an acceptable remedy.

If one wants to make an ally of one of two adversaries, the weaker one is more likely to deal.

The Soviets were not especially afraid of China - they had massive nuclear and conventional military superiority over China, plus greater industry.

China OTOH was very wary of the USSR, which was stronger, and which claimed a sort of authority over world Communism, and which had twice used force to keep other Communist states in line (Hungary 1956 and Czechoslovakia 1968).
 
Yeah. The whole point of 'going to China' was the recognition of the People's Republic AS China.

The US had recognized the existence of the USSR basically since it's found, but hadn't recognized the PRC as even existing.

For it even to be possible for 'Nixon to go to Russia', you'd have to have the US only recognize some White government into the 60's, which would likely require the EXISTENCE of such a government that late.

Such a US could not have welcomed 'Uncle Joe' as an ally in WWII, and history would be very, very different.

Enough so that a 'PRC' and a 'President Nixon' are likely butterflied away.
 
It's possible, but you need for Khrushchev to have a different personality.
Start by agreeing to Ike's 'Open Skies' and try to get some arms treaties on use of Space and Nuclear arms.

If it's clear there is no 'Bomber Gap', and staying stand-offish with Fidel in Cuba, the '60s look all together different, since without Kennedy being able to run to the right of Nixon on Defense, Nixon wins the election
 
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