WI: Nixon takes a Different Course in Vietnam

Was there ever a chance during the early days of his Presidency that Richard Nixon would create a plan resulting in a significant American presence in Vietnam (~200,000 men) and also participating in combat operations, even if in a more minor role?


Note: If this is not possible under conditions existing from the beginning of Nixon's Presidency, would the Tet Offensive, if delayed by two years or cancelled entirely, have lead to a strategy that kept the great majority of America's combat troops in? There is the matter of how the '68 elections develop of course.
 
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I don't see it without an earlier POD. Didn't Nixon promise during the election to end the Vietnam War?

I had originally thought about starting this "What If?" based on the idea of the Tet Offensive either not occuring or being delayed by one or two years. However, I was not sure what the effects on the 1968 Elections would be without that public perception of the war following Tet, and if Richard Nixon would even win the Presidency under those conditions.
 
No, Nixon had always been firm on Vietnamization, as were Humphrey, Kennedy and Rockefeller. Anyone who advocated something else would not have won the general election, especially not escalation.
 
I had originally thought about starting this "What If?" based on the idea of the Tet Offensive either not occuring or being delayed by one or two years. However, I was not sure what the effects on the 1968 Elections would be without that public perception of the war following Tet, and if Richard Nixon would even win the Presidency under those conditions.

If Tet doesn't happen then support for the war holds up better than OTL, instead of it being Iraq 2006 it is more Iraq 2008 as was the case during Nixon's first term. The 1968 election would revolve more around domestic policy, which hurts McCarthy's candidacy somewhat and polarizes the Democratic primary into an ideological knife fight between Humphrey and Kennedy. Depends who wins the nomination and if Kennedy survives, and butterflies can take care of who wins- on Vietnam all three were in essential agreement.
 
No, Nixon had always been firm on Vietnamization, as were Humphrey, Kennedy and Rockefeller. Anyone who advocated something else would not have won the general election, especially not escalation.

Two major things of note:


1) Could Vietnamization have been moderated in such a way that these conditions exist, while still following the general idea but on an extended time-frame?

2) The Tet Offensive is being considered a better trigger for policy changes. Would it have effected the policy that Nixon would be campaigning on? How would it have affected the '68 elections as a whole?
 
1) Yes.

2) Nixon had determined on Vietnamization pre-Tet, so that doesn't change. Domestic doesn't change either.

3) Depends what happens with the Democrats.
 
How would a Tet Offensive in January of 1971 compare to the OTL one in 1968, politically and strategically?
 
ARVN has two extra years, butterflies might ensue they get better intel and are thus prepared. Their essential personnel problem was junior officers (O-1/O-4 particularly), NCOs were quite good and there were quite a few talented generals. The problem in Thieu fixing that (forget Ky, he's a would-be rightist Chavez) is that it would piss off many important military allies on the RCC, though not to the point of a coup. Equipment and US reaction depends on who's in the Oval Office.
 
Came across an old Free Lance-Star Article that claims that Nixon from at the very least September had a stance that was very much against withdrawal and winning the War in Vietnam. His advisors were pressuring him to take a softer approach to the war and focus on Domestic Issues as he would in OTL, but he was initially against such changes to the campaign.

So what if he kept his more hawkish views on Vietnam? Would he still have been able to win the election?



Article Link: here
 
Under OTL conditions, probably yes, especially if he continues sabotaging the Paris peace talks. Humphrey's Salt Lake City speech (originally intended as an outflanking maneuver against RFK on the 'Nam left) set the stage for a softer Dem campaign, but unless Nixon advocated outright escalation, which he would not do for obvious reasons, things should be fine. Remember that the Dems were essentially bankrupt, without cash or credit- there were weeks where no regional or national TV ads were aired due to lack of funds. The organization was defunct in no small part due to LBJ's neutering of the DNC and what gave HHH the final push was the AFL-CIO's massive GOTV effort. Plus they had no credibility on domestic issues with Humphrey as the nominee.
 
But wasn't the biggest problem with the Tet Offensive due to how it was being reported at the time, as well as the various photos that became infamous from that event? Because that offensive was a really costly manuever for the Vietcong. And supposedly their numbers were DRAMATICALLY reduced afterwards.

*finds the Vietnam War really hard to make ATLs for* >.>;;
 
You're 100% correct: people call the idea that the media played a decisive role in public opinion turning against the war a rightist meme, but it's true, confirmed by no one less than Giap himself. It was a massive military defeat but a political and psychological victory for the VC.
 
You're 100% correct: people call the idea that the media played a decisive role in public opinion turning against the war a rightist meme, but it's true, confirmed by no one less than Giap himself. It was a massive military defeat but a political and psychological victory for the VC.

So would one way to ensure that the Tet Offensive wouldn't have shocked America would be to either keep the cameras away or maybe bring more news cameras into the thick of things??
 
You're 100% correct: people call the idea that the media played a decisive role in public opinion turning against the war a rightist meme, but it's true, confirmed by no one less than Giap himself. It was a massive military defeat but a political and psychological victory for the VC.

Pyyrhic victory : defeat :: Giapian defeat : victory?
 
You're 100% correct: people call the idea that the media played a decisive role in public opinion turning against the war a rightist meme, but it's true, confirmed by no one less than Giap himself. It was a massive military defeat but a political and psychological victory for the VC.

I hope your not repeating an urban legend here. Snopes debunked something that sounds similar to the Giap thing you mention here. I might be misunderstanding you here, and if so I apologize. Anyway, here's the link.

http://www.snopes.com/quotes/giap.asp
 
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