What would have happened if, instead of resigning, Nixon had decided to stay until he was impeached? What would have been the timetable of his removal, what would have been the approximate vote counts in the House and Senate, and what effect would it have during the midterms, the '76 election, and beyond?
WI: Nixon Doesn't Resign
- Thread starter jonnguy2016
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It would depend on what 'goods' he had on whom, wouldn't it? I mean, those he had something on can give impressive speeches against keeping him but vote against the impeachment......
Impeachment happens quickily i imagine ,since that was the reason he resigned. One way or another he is leaving, whether its voluntary or not.
I say the republicans lose more seats during midterms than they did in our timeline making impeachment almost impossible to get out of.
I say the republicans lose more seats during midterms than they did in our timeline making impeachment almost impossible to get out of.
Carl Albert becomes President. He doesn't think an unelected Democrat should be there so he appoints a high ranking congressional Republican (Gerald Ford or Hugh Scott) and resigns. Ford would presumably still choose Rockefeller; Scott might pick a different Veep.
Why? I'm not understanding the correlation between Nixon refusing to resign and a decision not to appoint a successor? Unless you're suggesting that he might keep the vice presidency vacant to ensure Congressional Republicans don't vote to remove him?
The POD of the original post seems to assume that Ford has already been confirmed as vice-president--but that Nixon simply refuses to resign in 1974. In that event, the Democrats in Congress (along with enough Republicans) will simply impeach and convict Nixon quickly, making Ford president. If they wanted to make Albert his successor they would simply have refused to confirm Ford or whoever else Nixon had nominated as vice-president. They didn't do so for three reasons. First, they thought it would look bad (like a "constitutional coup"); second, because they feared it would lead enough Republicans to oppose convicting Nixon to keep him in office; and finally, because as I noted at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...hout-the-25th-amendment.411283/#post-14344956 they were aware that Albert had problems with the bottle...
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You're right -- I put the POD too early. Agnew was already gone and Ford was in.
Theory: Part of the emotional texture of Ford deciding to pardon was that Nixon hadn't held on to the bitter end, and the idea that maybe we should play ball in return?
Nixon being outright impeached would be the end result, but it would be an even uglier episode than in RL since Nixon would be fighting tooth and nail to keep his position, despite the obvious impossibility of it.
I don't see Ford being in a position to give Nixon a pardon, now officially it was presented as a humanitarian gesture, however I think it had more to do with the fact that most of Ford's time prior to the pardon was dominated by the aftermath of Watergate. At some point the circus has to stop in order for him to actually be able to govern the country.
So we'll eventually have Richard Nixon being put on ACTUAL trial for his actions... And having someone with the kind of knowledge that he has on the witness stand is... dangerous. At that point it's a race between the FBI and the CIA to see who can slip him some poison first.
However would the butterflies from this be sufficient for Ford's two would-be assassins, Lynette 'Squeaky' Fromme and Sara Jane Moore to ACTUALLY be able to kill him?
Because if that's the case then we'd have a disgraced and impeached Nixon, his successor Ford being killed like Kennedy in very short order, then I assume Rockerfeller in the White House, I don't think the butterflies are quite big enough for Ford to pick someone else besides Rockerfeller as his VP choice.
The malaise of the 70's will be even more pronounced in any case, the stock market will be even more volatile for a while, and trust and faith in the government would be even lower.
I don't see Ford being in a position to give Nixon a pardon, now officially it was presented as a humanitarian gesture, however I think it had more to do with the fact that most of Ford's time prior to the pardon was dominated by the aftermath of Watergate. At some point the circus has to stop in order for him to actually be able to govern the country.
So we'll eventually have Richard Nixon being put on ACTUAL trial for his actions... And having someone with the kind of knowledge that he has on the witness stand is... dangerous. At that point it's a race between the FBI and the CIA to see who can slip him some poison first.
However would the butterflies from this be sufficient for Ford's two would-be assassins, Lynette 'Squeaky' Fromme and Sara Jane Moore to ACTUALLY be able to kill him?
Because if that's the case then we'd have a disgraced and impeached Nixon, his successor Ford being killed like Kennedy in very short order, then I assume Rockerfeller in the White House, I don't think the butterflies are quite big enough for Ford to pick someone else besides Rockerfeller as his VP choice.
The malaise of the 70's will be even more pronounced in any case, the stock market will be even more volatile for a while, and trust and faith in the government would be even lower.
He had no support in Congress to pull it off, would be prolonging horror out of ego and immaturity, and would be instigating a Constitutional crisis which would devastate American government like a hurricane. He already did that in terms of firing the special prosecutor, etc, and would continue with similar actions. It is a conflict of the authority of the presidency against investigation and prosecution of that president. That is a void we did not need to look into, because in reality, this nation only works because everyone believes it does and is on their best behavior (relatively speaking) about their assigned role in it. The Nixon crisis could have gotten much, much worse.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?309875-1/qa-timothy-naftali&start=1605
https://www.c-span.org/video/?309875-1/qa-timothy-naftali&start=1605
Assuming he stuck it out the House impeachment vote would be in the high 300s and the Senate vote in the mid to high 80s.
As to election impact there are 3 Senate races (Kansas, Nevada and North Dakota) where the GOP barely won so in theory they could go down giving the Democrats an effective 64-36 majority. In the House the Democrats already won 291 seats IOTL so it's tough to give them many more but they could go over 300.
As to long term impact, in 1976 the Democrats managed to avoid major losses in part because some GOP members who barely won in 74 were pushed out in 76, so to some degree they might do worse in 76.
The Senate is more interesting since on the one hand the Democrats would, assuming 76 and 78 went the same as IOTL be 3 seats stronger and the GOP ended up with a 53-47 majority so if that could result in a tie senate. However it is likely the GOP would gain at least one of the 3 extra seats lost.
Also of note, the Kansas seat was held by Bob Dole so he is now probably not around for VP in 76 (he could try a comeback to senate in 78)
As to election impact there are 3 Senate races (Kansas, Nevada and North Dakota) where the GOP barely won so in theory they could go down giving the Democrats an effective 64-36 majority. In the House the Democrats already won 291 seats IOTL so it's tough to give them many more but they could go over 300.
As to long term impact, in 1976 the Democrats managed to avoid major losses in part because some GOP members who barely won in 74 were pushed out in 76, so to some degree they might do worse in 76.
The Senate is more interesting since on the one hand the Democrats would, assuming 76 and 78 went the same as IOTL be 3 seats stronger and the GOP ended up with a 53-47 majority so if that could result in a tie senate. However it is likely the GOP would gain at least one of the 3 extra seats lost.
Also of note, the Kansas seat was held by Bob Dole so he is now probably not around for VP in 76 (he could try a comeback to senate in 78)
The Damage to authority and credibility of the US Presidency would be tremendous !
Nixon would end in history books as crook who was Impeached, trailed and goes into Prison.
In BBC documentation about how power corrupt, they deal with Nixon Presidency and Watergate.
His staff members explained that they had cut the Telephone and Telex wires from White House to local US Marines Base
in fear Nixon would Call them in order to remain in power...
Nixon would end in history books as crook who was Impeached, trailed and goes into Prison.
In BBC documentation about how power corrupt, they deal with Nixon Presidency and Watergate.
His staff members explained that they had cut the Telephone and Telex wires from White House to local US Marines Base
in fear Nixon would Call them in order to remain in power...
I don't think Nixon would live long enough to make it to trial, under these circumstances I could see the various security apparatuses and intelligence agencies deciding that having Nixon take the witness stand, with EVERYTHING that he knows would simply be too dangerous. Not just for the nation, but their own careers!
I think Nixon would be 'taken care off' by these forces before a trial could be conducted to ensure his eternal silence.
I don't think Nixon would live long enough to make it to trial, under these circumstances I could see the various security apparatuses and intelligence agencies deciding that having Nixon take the witness stand, with EVERYTHING that he knows would simply be too dangerous. Not just for the nation, but their own careers!
I think Nixon would be 'taken care off' by these forces before a trial could be conducted to ensure his eternal silence.
I don't buy this. What's he going to say?
The President of the United States has access to virtually ALL classified information, every single dirty black-ops that happens, every single intelligence report, every single CIA/FBI/NSA/[insert acronym here], military operations, nuclear projects, etc. ALL OF IT at some point winds up on the President's desk.
And Nixon was a man who authorized a lot of horrible things done overseas, an example being a certain coup in Argentina, and these are things that could potentially come up in an actual trial over his actions as President of the United States, and in a trial like that he'd be forced to take the Witness Stand where they can ask him virtually ANY question they want and he is legally obliged to give honest answers.
Plus it would give him a chance to kneecap people that have screwed him over due to the impeachment process.
I could see plenty of 'men in black' looking at this and saying, "Yeah... No. We can't have Nixon live to see trial. Needs of the nation and all that..." and then we get news reports of Nixon 'killing himself' or 'falling down the stairs' or 'shot by mysterious assassin'.
1974 Senate elections
Mike Mansfield-Democratic: 65+9 57.7%
Hugh Scott-Republican: 33-9 37.1%
Independent: 1_
Conservative: 1_
100 seats
51 for majority
Bob Dole loses, Paul Laxalt loses, Louis C Wyman loses, Milton Young loses, Henry Bellmon loses.
1974 House elections
Carl Albert-Democratic: 310+68 60.0%
John Rhodes-Republican: 125-67 38.2%
Bill Clinton is elected to Congress
1974 gubernatorial elections
Democratic: 42+10
Republican: 7-11
Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and South Carolina elect Democratic governors.
Mike Mansfield-Democratic: 65+9 57.7%
Hugh Scott-Republican: 33-9 37.1%
Independent: 1_
Conservative: 1_
100 seats
51 for majority
Bob Dole loses, Paul Laxalt loses, Louis C Wyman loses, Milton Young loses, Henry Bellmon loses.
1974 House elections
Carl Albert-Democratic: 310+68 60.0%
John Rhodes-Republican: 125-67 38.2%
Bill Clinton is elected to Congress
1974 gubernatorial elections
Democratic: 42+10
Republican: 7-11
Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and South Carolina elect Democratic governors.