WI: Nixon Doesn't Go To China?

I just had a thought today, but what if Richard Nixon hadn't gone on his famous visit to China in 1972? Now, I don't know very much about the event itself, so i can't really comment alot, but I do have a few questions...

1) What POD would be needed to keep Nixon from going?

2) What would the short and long term effects or this be for China and the United States?

3) How would this impact the rest of Nixon's Presidency? What would his legacy be like without his visit to China? I still think Watergate or something like it would happen.

Any thoughts?
 
First off, Nixon was determined to go to China since 1965-6. All the other candidates had pledged to do so, though only RFK (who also privately committed in '65) of the 3 Dems had the anti-Commie creds to pull it off.

1) Most of the bipartisan foreign policy establishment favored it, so Nixon will not find a Secretary of State who favors his views in the rest of foreign policy.

2) China gets opened up later. Deng might not come to power, and the Gang of Four try to turn the PRC into NK. The PLA won't like that obviously.

3) Nixon has a closer '72 election, but there are no viable Dems to beat him, nor any decent Dem presidential candidates until 1984 (Gary Hart, Lloyd Bentsen) at the earliest. China did for him what the Falklands did for Thatcher- made him a living deity that guaranted a second-term landslide. Watergate probably still happens- it might be worse because the election will not be as much of a shoo-in as OTL.
 
First off, Nixon was determined to go to China since 1965-6. All the other candidates had pledged to do so, though only RFK (who also privately committed in '65) of the 3 Dems had the anti-Commie creds to pull it off.

Why not have a POD on the Chinese side then? After all, in early '72 China was still picking up the pieces after the Lin Biao Incident, and the political landscape was still somewhat uncertain. You could have all sorts of things go differently to cancel or postpone the Nixon visit. It doesn't have to be a cataclysmic civil war -- the Chinese could simply get more cautious and wary of any dramatic shifts in policy.

Also, the Lin Biao Incident had a devastating physical and emotional effect on Mao (he was deeply depressed, bed-ridden, and IIRC was near death at one point in the winter of 1971). So whether we make him sicker or kill him off completely, we can have Mao’s health be the reason why Nixon isn’t invited to China.
 

Cook

Banned
If Nixon doesn’t go we miss out on one of the most classic one-liners of all time.
;)
 

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
It was a bit of a fait accompli by that point. The rest of NATO bar Portugal had already recognised them along with Japan, the biggest states in South America, Australia and New Zealand. Holding out much longer would put the US in the same basket as South Korea, Singapore and Israel.
 
Agreed on domestic Chinese PODs.

As for RFK: in my TL The Impossible Dream I had him switch the US alliance in the Hindu Kush from Pakistan to India in 1971, along with SALT I with Brezhnev. That isolation of Beijing allowed Kennedy to make a triumphant visit, as Nixon did, in early 1972 before winning a second-term landslide.
 
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