WI: Nixon Does Not Install a Taping System

[Amadeus]

Conally likely becomes the nominee in 76. Nixon was willing to throw his full weight behind him.

Would he? I doubt that Connally, a former Democrat, would be able to overcome Reagan's popularity with movement conservatives. Moreover, Connally was put on trial in 1975 over a bribery scandal. He was indicted, but acquitted. However in a post-Watergate atmosphere I doubt that even Republican voters would respond well to Connally, especially if Nixon so publicly supports him.

 

[marathag]

True; setting up Reagan as a forgettable one-term POTUS takes all the bite out of his presidency. Reaganomics never becomes a thing, and the War on Drugs might be as memorable as the War on Poverty, which is to say, not all that much.

My guess is that the Democrats become more moderate anyway in the 1980s, and both parties spend the next two decades being as bland as possible.

There was going to be a rush to be 'Tough on Crime' with both D and R, as OTL. RR didn't create the conditions that caused the pendulum to swing back after the permissiveness of the late '60s and '70s

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

There was going to be a rush to be 'Tough on Crime' with both D and R, as OTL. RR didn't create the conditions that caused the pendulum to swing back after the permissiveness of the late '60s and '70s

Even if there was a wave of “tough on crime,” the focus may be a different one. Drugs were a big area of focus for anti-crime measures; drugs were the boogeyman of the 80s and 90s. Also bear in mind Reagan annihilated mental health facilities in the 1980s; with less of a gutting of mental health, there may be more incentive to help people and only be tough on “scary” crimes, like violent crimes or those against children.

 

[marathag]

Also bear in mind Reagan annihilated mental health facilities in the 1980s; with less of a gutting of mental health

From the New York Times in 1984
In California, for example, the number of patients in state mental hospitals reached a peak of 37,500 in 1959 when Edmund G. Brown was Governor, fell to 22,000 when Ronald Reagan attained that office in 1967, and continued to decline under his administration and that of his successor, Edmund G. Brown Jr. The senior Mr. Brown now expresses regret about the way the policy started and ultimately evolved. ''They've gone far, too far, in letting people out,'' he said in an interview.

It was popular to close State Mental Institutions, known as 'Snake Pits' for decades
_One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest_ was as devastating to those as _China Syndrome_ was to Nuclear Power
In the In 1950's, Half of all hospital beds in the US were psychiatric beds, in Asylums and Institutions
And that just wasn't a California thing while the Gipper was Gov, that was happening across the Nation

 

[GDIS Pathe]

The other point here is that all the top six candidates except Jackson and maybe Udall were outsiders in some way. I think if Watergate is almost as bad, but Nixon survives, Carter will still win. Minimize Watergate, to favor an establishment candidate, and Jackson, despite finishing fifth in the vote total IOTL, is the likeliest to defeat Carter. He would do it by overcoming the IOTL 12 point loss in Pennsylvania, and then when the party establishment develops doubts about Carter they rally to Jackson.

Carter still beats Wallace in North Carolina in this scenario, and Udall in the early contests, and Brown just entered too late to have a chance, so its Jackson who would benefit from a less anti-establishment mood. But you do need a much less serious Watergate.

OTL Jackson gave Carter his only real scare when he won the Massachusetts primary, but was hampered by an inability to rally Labor behind him (primarily because they were still holding out for HHH to jump it), some self defeating remarks (he said he'd win New York in a landslide instead of merely winning) and a lack of campaign organization in places where he really needed it, e.g: Florida

Henry M. Jackson, A Life In Politics, pg. 415
Patrick Caddell:
[It seemed that] the whole thing, which twenty-four hours before had looked like it was about to wrapped up, could fall apart within seven days. Now all of a sudden we had Jackson coming into Florida to cut us, and spend resources. We knew he couldn't win, but he could really screw us up. We could be out of the race, for all intents and purposes. The fourty-eight hours after Massachusetts was just horrendous. We were off base, our candidate was off stride, and we were facing the crisis of our lives.

 

[Curtain Jerker]

With a reduced Watergate how much smaller is the 1974 Democratic wave in the midterms? OTL it was +49 in the House and +5 in the Senate

I can see there being some Democratic gains but not that many.

 

[marktaha]

OTL Jackson gave Carter his only real scare when he won the Massachusetts primary, but was hampered by an inability to rally Labor behind him (primarily because they were still holding out for HHH to jump it), some self defeating remarks (he said he'd win New York in a landslide instead of merely winning) and a lack of campaign organization in places where he really needed it, e.g: Florida

Apart from missing New Hampshire.