WI Nixon destroys the smoking gun tape?

Demagnetize or destroy it completely, then what happens? Without that evidence there is nothing directly tying Nixon to the break-in. Does his impeachment end up like Clinton's, rendering him a lame duck domestically for most of his second term?
 
If he erases or destroys the tapes, there is no evidence to link Nixon to the break-in. Nixon himself may denounce the event as an over-zealous rogue exercise. A few get prosecuted, the Vietnam war ends and Nixon finishes his term.

With the heat down on Nixon, suppose investigations against Agnew do now come up until late 1974 and Agnew does not resign until early 1975. Ronald Reagan's term as governor will have ended and there is nothing in the 25th Amendment that would prevent him from appointing Reagan as VP (as Nixon can not run again).

The big changes to the political landscape would come after 1976.
 
Well, Nixon probably escapes persecution much as Reagan escaped Iran Contra and Clinton escaped Cigar-gate.

This means a few things:

1. Nixon is probably remembered as a good, effective, and popular president, even if tell-all books about what a bastard he was surface later.

2. American's faith in the office of POTUS escapes the near-fatal wound it suffered from Watergate (that was a MONUMENTAL change in public perception that can't be diminished).

3. Harder go for the Dems in '76. No President Carter, probably.

4. Perhaps a more active diplomatic opposition to renewed North Vietnamese aggression. Enough to save Saigon? I wouldn't think so, but not my area.
 
Well, Nixon probably escapes persecution much as Reagan escaped Iran Contra and Clinton escaped Cigar-gate.

This means a few things:

1. Nixon is probably remembered as a good, effective, and popular president, even if tell-all books about what a bastard he was surface later.

2. American's faith in the office of POTUS escapes the near-fatal wound it suffered from Watergate (that was a MONUMENTAL change in public perception that can't be diminished).

3. Harder go for the Dems in '76. No President Carter, probably.

4. Perhaps a more active diplomatic opposition to renewed North Vietnamese aggression. Enough to save Saigon? I wouldn't think so, but not my area.

I agree mostly, but think that the Democrats have a decent shot at winning in 1976 anyway. Although, Carter might not be the nominee in this TL.
 
Carter will definitely not be the nominee, he was a response to Watergate. Either Bush or Reagan (Rocky would never be Nixon's VP) get the VP nod, more likely Reagan, the only Republican who can win in '76.

I wonder about SVN: another Linebacker campaign, more arms shipments? Angola gets covert aid by any means possible.
 
Carter will definitely not be the nominee, he was a response to Watergate. Either Bush or Reagan (Rocky would never be Nixon's VP) get the VP nod, more likely Reagan, the only Republican who can win in '76.

I wonder about SVN: another Linebacker campaign, more arms shipments? Angola gets covert aid by any means possible.

The Cubans would be in Angola by 1975, they came as soon as the SADF started turning a mess into a shitstorm. The US doesn't hate South Africa enough to support a Marxist regime, I would wager.
 
2. American's faith in the office of POTUS escapes the near-fatal wound it suffered from Watergate (that was a MONUMENTAL change in public perception that can't be diminished).

Agreed. This would probably lead to the biggest changes in the mid-term.

In the long term some POTUS is going to get caught red-handed sooner or later, and the effects will be the same.
 
I think you need to do more than get rid of the smoking gun tape.

The vote on impeachment in Judiciary took place before the tape came out and was pretty heavy in favor.

Now if you get rid of ALL the tapes...
 
... rendering him a lame duck domestically for most of his second term?


I think that is most likely.

Felt is still going to be able to point people in several directions, plenty of other things can come out, and like Clinton Nixon is going to eventually be impeached roughly along party lines.

I'll also point out that, while the committee's impeachment vote was taken before the smoking gun tape was released, it was already know what would be found on that tape and Nixon's actions in trying to prevent the tape's release had done huge damage.
 
I believe Nixon had plans to further the new US-China relationship such as establishing complete diplomatic ties but that would have to wait until Carter.
 

Japhy

Banned
Carter will definitely not be the nominee, he was a response to Watergate. Either Bush or Reagan (Rocky would never be Nixon's VP) get the VP nod, more likely Reagan, the only Republican who can win in '76.

I wonder about SVN: another Linebacker campaign, more arms shipments? Angola gets covert aid by any means possible.

Nixon himself was hoping for John Connelly, without Watergate over him he might be able to get Congress to go for it. And then the Ex-Democrat becomes the presumptive nominee in '76.

Can he win? I doubt it, Reagan is bound to try and make a challenge like he did against Ford, with results ending the same for the Republicans.

As for Vietnam, Arms shipments IOTL were diverted to help the Israelis, Nixon might still deem the IDF to be more in need of those arms. He actually might drop Angola to cover Israel and RVN. Or ARVN can hold with their minimal arms stockpiles if Linebacker III happens. Though that's going to be a political disaster for Nixon if he orders the bombers over Hanoi.
 
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Nixon himself was hoping for John Connelly, without Watergate over him he might be able to get Congress to go for it. And then the Ex-Democrat becomes the presumptive nominee in '76.

Can he win? I doubt it, Reagan is bound to try and make a challenge like he did against Ford, with results ending the same for the Republicans.

As for Vietnam, Arms shipments IOTL were diverted to help the Israelis, Nixon might still deem the IDF to be more in need of those arms. He actually might drop Angola to cover Israel and RVN. Or ARVN can hold with their minimal arms stockpiles if Linebacker III happens. Though that's going to be a political disaster for Nixon if he orders the bombers over Hanoi.
He already has a disaster. Even if the smoking gun tape is destroyed, there will still be an impeachment vote.

BUT, he's stil POTUS and Vietnam is still Congressionally authorized. Might he try to make a military solution work in Vietnam to shore up his political prospects? Or at least those of his party?
 

Japhy

Banned
He already has a disaster. Even if the smoking gun tape is destroyed, there will still be an impeachment vote.

BUT, he's stil POTUS and Vietnam is still Congressionally authorized. Might he try to make a military solution work in Vietnam to shore up his political prospects? Or at least those of his party?

A Clinton-esque Impeachment and Linebacker III are two rather different levels of disaster. I'm saying that if he sends the B-52's in you'll see the country freak out far worse then when Cambodia was invaded. the American people weren't willing to go back after the Peace Treaty was signed, and College Students are going to care about it far more actively then they were about Watergate.
 
If I recall correctly the House Judiciary committee voted by more than two thirds for the articles before the tape came out. A significant number of Republicans joined

I think it quite likely Nixon would still be convicted in a Senate trial
 
Now if you get rid of ALL the tapes...

Let's say we we do get rid of all incriminating tapes. Nixon will finish his term. An interesting aspect of the 1976 election is that neither party had any apparent front runners at the beginning of Nixon's second term.

Suppose 65 year-old Reagan begins to emerge as a front runner. Maybe 61 year-old Ed Muskie will consider running, and the result is a Reagan-Muskie election. The thing is, the winner in 1976 is almost guaranteed to be a one-term president because the inflation of the period was very much out of any president's control.

What if Muskie wins? It would be a rather Carter-like administration, with only the benefit that a different person might be more pro-active. We could expect history to return to a very OTL course with a Reagan win in 1980.

What if Reagan wins? Extremists in Iran might think twice about taking hostages in 1979. Anything gained here would be offset by other pressure points: no pardon for the draft-dodgers and no Panama Canal deal. In any case, inflation is still raging in 1980 and the Democrat wins.
 
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