WI Nikolaevich's pistol goes off (1905)

In the turmoil of the 1905 Revolution, Tsar Nicholas II had initially planned to institute a military dictatorship, rather than implement the reforms being demanded by the October Manifesto; to this end, he turned to great uncle, Grand Duke Nicholas Nikolaevich, asking the highly respected general to step in as military dictator. Nikolaevich's response changed the course of history -- not only did he refuse, but he held a pistol to his head and threatened to pull the trigger if the Tsar did not endorse the reforms being put forward; Nicholas, seeing no other option, acquiesced. It was this decision that, at least for the short term, brought the Revolution of 1905 to a seemingly successful conclusion.

But what if it had not happened this way? What if, on raising his pistol, the gun had gone off, killing or injuring the Grand Duke? Or, alternately, what if Nikolaevich had not threatened suicide at all? Could Tsar Nichloas have still attempted to go with the military dictatorship route, choosing somebody else?

CONSOLIDATE: Additional thought -- though it's a few months before the noted PoD, we might also consider the assassination of the Tsar's uncle, Grand Duke Sergei Alexandrovich, shortly after his retirement as Governor General of Moscow; had he still been alive, could that have influenced said event?
 
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He could have certainly tried... and I imagine there's somebody in the Russian Brass who'd be willing to pick up the metaphorical knot and give the masses a whipping. Lacking the prestige of the Grand Duke, however, whomever is put at the top of such a dictatorship is going to run the risk of seeing at least some mutiny among the colonals and elements of the army either remaining in their barracks or (worse) defecting to the rebels and providing a solid core around which they could form paramilitary forces. Given the diffusion of Russia and the fact the system is still in a state of disarray from the Russo-Japanese war, you'd likely have enough time for serious opposition factions to form, thus resulting in at least a low-scale civil war which, while the government would win it within a year or two, would leave Russia without the internal stability to project power internationally, bring industrialization to a screeching halt, and foster resentment that would run the risk of exploding out in the following decade.
 
while the government would win it within a year or two
Who can the Tsar really rely on in this scenario though? Military forces had been in mutiny, the factory workers are setting up soviets and backing various socialists, and now he's defying even the modest demands of the zemstovs. Even if this isn't the end of the monarchy, would Nicholas II be able to reliably avoid assassination or a coup, looking to bring his brother Michael to the throne instead?
 
Who can the Tsar really rely on in this scenario though? Military forces had been in mutiny, the factory workers are setting up soviets and backing various socialists, and now he's defying even the modest demands of the zemstovs. Even if this isn't the end of the monarchy, would Nicholas II be able to reliably avoid assassination or a coup, looking to bring his brother Michael to the throne instead?

Some were mutinying: there's still plenty of loyal troops and the vast majority of the officers would obey national commands to retain "law and order" in their regions (Even if they can't as dependably be called out on offensives, merely defending hearth and home and maintaining local peace is a lot less controversial). This would prevent the rebels from gaining control of large swaths of territory or seizing any reasonable number of armories (thus limiting their ability to arm themselves), or establish the physical and communication connections needed to get the groups to form a united rebel front.

Assasination is a real potential problem though. A coup less so. What would the generals have to gain?
 
@FillyofDelphi If Nicholas is assassinated, would he be succeeded by his one year old, hemophilic son, or would his brother Michael succeed him?

Interesting thing about Michael as of this PoD -- he has not yet met Natalia Brasova (who became his morganic wife and mother of his son OTL); he had taken an interest in Princess Beatrice of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha (who was his first cousin, as well as the niece of Edward VII), though Nicholas had already made him end that courting a few years earlier; and a few months after our PoD, he had OTL asked his brother permission to marry one of his sister's ladies in waiting (Alexandra Kossikovskaya). Point is, if he's the Tsar, not only does that mean he technically doesn't need anyone's permission to marry someone, but his supporters will want to see him produce an heir of his own.
 
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@FillyofDelphi So let’s say this happens - Nicholas opts for a military dictatorship in response to the October Manifesto, and is assassinated sometime not long after; if a low level civil war breaks out as you say, assume he’s killed before his forces can prevail. Michael becomes regent, and possibly Tsar depending on butterflies (the babe’s health, etc). How are the next few years affected?
 
@FillyofDelphi So let’s say this happens - Nicholas opts for a military dictatorship in response to the October Manifesto, and is assassinated sometime not long after; if a low level civil war breaks out as you say, assume he’s killed before his forces can prevail. Michael becomes regent, and possibly Tsar depending on butterflies (the babe’s health, etc). How are the next few years affected?

Russia takes an even more passive international stance than it did IRL, as the army is stuck occupying the home front, a great deal of the bourgeois liberals would have to be subdued (leading to a capital and skills dearth), the military-conservative faction within the government has far more influence (Both due to circumstances and the fact Rasputin and his creatures won't be around), the economy will be a lot more sluggishsluggish
 
@FillyofDelphi So it sounds like that when (or if)* wwi (or equivalent) breaks out, that Russia could stay on the defensive sit the conflict out.

*assuming it’s plausible a war even could break out in the west (eg Agadir Crisis) as opposed to in the east
 
There might not even be a big war, if France realizes Russia is in no position to help them. Assuming a butterfly net until 1914, Serbia would be invaded by A-H and with a passive Russia there no chance Britain or France would come to it's rescue alone. A-H would win, but also after a much harder fight and with much more casualties, than anyone would have expected once the war starts. Once that sinks in, in the other capitals things could go anywhere.
 
@Drizzt I agree that the Entente and CP are unlikely to go to war over the Balkans without Russia in a position to project power there; the more interesting question is if they could go to war over another matter with that limitation, and if so, how it plays out.
 
There might not even be a big war, if France realizes Russia is in no position to help them. Assuming a butterfly net until 1914, Serbia would be invaded by A-H and with a passive Russia there no chance Britain or France would come to it's rescue alone. A-H would win, but also after a much harder fight and with much more casualties, than anyone would have expected once the war starts. Once that sinks in, in the other capitals things could go anywhere.

True; a big war is a lot less likely due to the fact that France dosen't have the same domestic factors or conflicting areas of vital interest/ambition (A-L/E-L aside... but even that is of only moderate interest and certainly diden't carry the same intensity of revachism in the left and moderates that it did in the right.) without Russia pulling France into regional affairs. Of course, I'd argue there's such a butterfly net, if placed in the Balkans, is likely to get torn to shreds in the earliest years of the 20th century; the mere pressure being taken off the Habsburg Empire would do wonders for stability in the Balkans. Peter I's Serbia isen't going to be as able to thumb its nose at Vienna, for instance, who haven't forgotten what they did to the pro-Habsburg Obrenovics. That means Serbia is going to have to adopt a far less belligerent approach if they don't want Conrad unleashing his premptive war several years early (especially after the annexation of Bosnia; which will face less international opposition with a Russia unable to stick out its neck), which cascades into more stability in the Ottoman Balkans during this critical period (Especially since its around this time Austria's biggest ally, Germany, is really tuning up their investment in Ottoman infastructure) and likely preventing the formation of the Balkan League (since Austria would view any such alliance as a threat).

With Russia out of the picture, if a war is still going to break out, I'd argue the most likely would be Italy rocking the boat by bungling some attempt to break out of her enclosed position on the Peninsula. The question would be where though; an Ottoman Empire not as wracked by Revolution and relieved of pressure on the north is going to be a less inviting target for invasion, and Italy can't move against Austria alone. Maybe they try again in Ethiopia if they're looking for colonial compensation?

@Drizzt I agree that the Entente and CP are unlikely to go to war over the Balkans without Russia in a position to project power there; the more interesting question is if they could go to war over another matter with that limitation, and if so, how it plays out.

Its possible the tensions between Britain and Germany, rather than Russia and Austria, would become more salient as the Admiralty would be faced with a sudden severe boost in German naval potential if their High Seas Fleet no longer has to worry about containing Russian naval assets (A fear which very well could come about; the revolution and instability only compounding on the crippling loses suffered in the Russo-Japanese war). I could see political conflicts in the Ottoman Empire, possibly involving the succession of government policies after the death of Abdul Hamid, or Greece sparking up, or something over Portugal's colonies in Africa or Belgium hitting financial strain and trying to sell the Congo. All are very unlikely to spiral out of control, true... but one could say the same thing about OTL's series of unfortunate events.
 
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