Not referring to Constantinople rather the crusader treatment of the orthodox Bulgarians my point been the crusaders might have saved Constantinople but knowing them they might lay siege to it themselves
Would they really? What was left in the city to sack? And besides there’s the Ottomans in the rest of Rumelia to worry about. Just to make sure their work is not undone the crusaders are going to have to send the Turks out of Europe and return lost land back to the Bulgarians, Byzantines, and Serbs.
 
The Latin states in western Anatolia are going to be there because the crusaders will at least ask for some material reward. Also not to mention that the Turks aren’t leaving that easily and they have to at least make sure that they’re not crossing into Europe again.

I think this is the kind of reasoning by the crusaders that - flavored with "We've beaten the Ottomans, see the optimists were right" - is how you get an army convinced that they can beat anything in its path picking a fight with Timur and losing horribly.

The best the crusade of Nicopolis can do, IMO, is defeat Bayzeid and maybe return some territory to Constantinople's (among others) control - but "keep the Turks out of Europe" long term takes a revival of the empire of at least the 1330s preferrably with Venice and Genoa as help keeping the waters out of Turkish control, IMO.
 
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I think this is the kind of reasoning by the crusaders that - flavored with "We've beaten the Ottomans, see the optimists were right" - is how you get an army convinced that they can beat anything in its path picking a fight with Timur and losing horribly.

The best the crusade of Nicopolis can do, IMO, is defeat Bayzeid and maybe return some territory to Constantinople's (among others) control - but "keep the Turks out of Europe" long term takes a revival of the empire of at least the 1330s preferrably with Venice and Genoa as help keeping the waters out of Turkish control, IMO.
When they hear about how large Timur’s army is though I really don’t know if they’d be that stupid to pick a fight with him.

The need to keep the Turks out of Europe would be the justification for crusader states in Anatolia. And they’d be easier to defend than the Levant.
 
A Christian victory in Nicopolis will see the victors forces tried to expell the Ottomans from Europe.

What is possible for me :

Bigger Hungary and Wallachia...

Latin Greeks states expanded and more are create for the Western Knights.

But what of Bulgaria, a new independant state under a Latin King ? A local ruler promoted to King to create back an Bulgarian entity.
 
I think this is the kind of reasoning by the crusaders that - flavored with "We've beaten the Ottomans, see the optimists were right" - is how you get an army convinced that they can beat anything in its path picking a fight with Timur and losing horribly.

The best the crusade of Nicopolis can do, IMO, is defeat Bayzeid and maybe return some territory to Constantinople's (among others) control - but "keep the Turks out of Europe" long term takes a revival of the empire of at least the 1330s preferrably with Venice and Genoa as help keeping the waters out of Turkish control, IMO.
I don't think returning territory to Constantinople would be a priority- if the ERE gets all of Thrace back, that would be a big deal. Certainly, the Kingdom of Thessalonica would be reestablished. Bulgarians would probably back Ivan Stratsimir, and they would definitely be the best off of all the Post-Ottoman states- though the Bulgarian state had been subdued, armed Bulgarian soldiers existed throughout its territory in garrisons under Turkish officers.

Also, I doubt the Turkish colonies in Europe would be as big a deal. Greece was still pretty urbanized so taking top-down control of it would be easier, and the settled Turkish ghazis would probably be unable to sustain resistance without an ottoman central authority.

Of course, all this is predicated on Bayezid and a large part of his army getting obliterated at Nicopolis. If they manage to retreat, they would quickly be able to make the situation untenable for the crusader supply line and reinforce through the aforementioned colonies (even if they were blocked off from Anatolia by the Italians).
 
A Christian victory in Nicopolis will see the victors forces tried to expell the Ottomans from Europe.

What is possible for me :

Bigger Hungary and Wallachia...

Latin Greeks states expanded and more are create for the Western Knights.

But what of Bulgaria, a new independant state under a Latin King ? A local ruler promoted to King to create back an Bulgarian entity.
Not sure if Wallachian or Hungary will get bigger here. At most they’ll be glad to not have the Turks that close to home.

Most likely those states will be in western Anatolia. All European territorio will be returned to their rightful owners.

There was a Bulgarian king who died in the OTL battle who’ll get his kingdom back. No Latin king could possibly take the throne.
 
When they hear about how large Timur’s army is though I really don’t know if they’d be that stupid to pick a fight with him.

I am a great pessimist here, I admit it.

But I think this rests on them having a more realistic appreciation for their situation after they've achieved a more sweeping victory than they had a right to expect (for campaigning in Anatolia to even come up), rather than growing convinced that superior numbers of "inferior troops" cannot stand before them.

And responding here because it relates to my concerns: Why would they return European territories to their "rightful owners" if they expect material compensation? Especially since these guys don't see the Latin Empire (although search me who would be claimed as Emperor if they tried to revive that as such) as illegitimate, and Nicaea belongs to Constantinople as much as Thrace does?

I don't think returning territory to Constantinople would be a priority- if the ERE gets all of Thrace back, that would be a big deal. Certainly, the Kingdom of Thessalonica would be reestablished. Bulgarians would probably back Ivan Stratsimir, and they would definitely be the best off of all the Post-Ottoman states- though the Bulgarian state had been subdued, armed Bulgarian soldiers existed throughout its territory in garrisons under Turkish officers.

I agree as far as the ERE. It's more of a matter of "if this is really going to be stopped" than anything I think is going to happen. Bulgaria I'm not sure, although that more relates to Bulgaria and Hungary (recent Hungarian kings have had ambitions on the Balkans after all, although Sigismund may not focus on it) than specifically crusader conquests.
 
I am a great pessimist here, I admit it.

But I think this rests on them having a more realistic appreciation for their situation after they've achieved a more sweeping victory than they had a right to expect (for campaigning in Anatolia to even come up), rather than growing convinced that superior numbers of "inferior troops" cannot stand before them.

And responding here because it relates to my concerns: Why would they return European territories to their "rightful owners" if they expect material compensation? Especially since these guys don't see the Latin Empire (although search me who would be claimed as Emperor if they tried to revive that as such) as illegitimate, and Nicaea belongs to Constantinople as much as Thrace does?
I made a mistake about Timur. In 1398 he was in India so it'll take a while for him to get to Anatolia. In the meantime it'll be Bayezid's squabbling sons and a few other non-Ottoman Turkish factions.

Assuming the infighting gets back enough I'll definitely see smooth sailing amongst the crusaders. But I could also see them playing Bayezid's sons against each other as well as ally with non-Ottoman Turkish factions. They could definitely make errors that'll force them to stay in Anatolia. I also wouldn't be surprised if a few of Bayezid's sons unite against the crusaders. Most likely the crusaders will gain parts of western Anatolia but eventually take enough serious losses for them to realize that they're unfortunately not heading anywhere else after that. In the end, the internecine Ottoman conflict will be the saving grace of the crusaders. And by the time Timur comes rolling around the crusaders will most likely agree to pay tribute.

As I said before the crusaders will most likely set up in western Anatolia than in the Balkans. And they'll hog as much of the region as they can leaving the Balkans to whoever owned it.
 
As I said before the crusaders will most likely set up in western Anatolia than in the Balkans. And they'll hog as much of the region as they can leaving the Balkans to whoever owned it.

To be entirely honest, it feels to me like you're seeing something I'm not here - that Anatolia is fair game (at least to the crusaders), but the Balkans obviously need to be returned to their previous rulers.

So I guess my question at this point: What claim/s do they have to anything in Anatolia that they don't in the Balkans?
 
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To be entirely honest, it feels to me like you're seeing something I'm not here - that Anatolia is fair game (at least to the crusaders), but the Balkans obviously need to be returned to their previous rulers.

So I guess my question at this point: What claim/s do they have to anything in Anatolia that they don't in the Balkans?
I say it’s not too different from the First Crusade where the crusaders helped return some territory to the Byzantines but went for Jerusalem to keep for themselves.

Also not to mention I don’t think they’ll have there resources to get anything beyond western Anatolia.
 
I say it’s not too different from the First Crusade where the crusaders helped return some territory to the Byzantines but went for Jerusalem to keep for themselves.
I see.

I suppose in any timeline they manage to conquer anything in the first place, it would be on the writer to cover how that gets worked out, but personally I feel like any conquests they make here are "It's mine because my army is all over it."-y.
 
I see.

I suppose in any timeline they manage to conquer anything in the first place, it would be on the writer to cover how that gets worked out, but personally I feel like any conquests they make here are "It's mine because my army is all over it."-y.
That army can be at so many places at once. Sure they’ll run all over the Balkans to chase the Ottomans out but most likely so they can have strong allies to protect their kingdoms in western Anatolia. If they try to hold the Balkans and western Anatolia at once their numbers will be stretched too thin.
 
It's not so much stretched thin or not as that both are purely "because we have a stronger army than the Byzantines (and the Turks)." There's not, IMO, any difference in the (il)legitimacy of the crusaders ruling Nicaea vs. them ruling Adrianople.
 
It's not so much stretched thin or not as that both are purely "because we have a stronger army than the Byzantines (and the Turks)." There's not, IMO, any difference in the (il)legitimacy of the crusaders ruling Nicaea vs. them ruling Adrianople.
Well they’ll think they’re that strong until a few Turkic armies force them to realize their limits.
 
I think that Nicopole had the best chance of succeding from all the late crusades. The Ottoman Empire was still fragile as the explosive growth left many territories unpacified completely and there where some points of resistance în the Balkan Peninsula which can supply the crusaders.

If the crusade is succesful Hungary will greatly expand her influence in the Balkans, a Bulgarian state will be restored but diminished territorially and subservient to Hungary, the byzantines will be allowed to recuperate Thesalonika and some minor position on the coast. The zero sum game played by Byzantines, Serbs and Bulgarian will return with a possibility that a new muslim dinasty from Asia Minor might make a comeback.
 
I think that Nicopole had the best chance of succeding from all the late crusades. The Ottoman Empire was still fragile as the explosive growth left many territories unpacified completely and there where some points of resistance în the Balkan Peninsula which can supply the crusaders.

If the crusade is succesful Hungary will greatly expand her influence in the Balkans, a Bulgarian state will be restored but diminished territorially and subservient to Hungary, the byzantines will be allowed to recuperate Thesalonika and some minor position on the coast. The zero sum game played by Byzantines, Serbs and Bulgarian will return with a possibility that a new muslim dinasty from Asia Minor might make a comeback.
It's also just as easy for the European states to blow their advantages.
 
I think that Nicopole had the best chance of succeding from all the late crusades. The Ottoman Empire was still fragile as the explosive growth left many territories unpacified completely and there where some points of resistance în the Balkan Peninsula which can supply the crusaders.

If the crusade is succesful Hungary will greatly expand her influence in the Balkans, a Bulgarian state will be restored but diminished territorially and subservient to Hungary, the byzantines will be allowed to recuperate Thesalonika and some minor position on the coast. The zero sum game played by Byzantines, Serbs and Bulgarian will return with a possibility that a new muslim dinasty from Asia Minor might make a comeback.
I could also see the Byzantines, Serbs, and Bulgarians making an alliance to ensure the Muslims don’t make it back to Europe. I also would see the monarchies of the three nations try to find ways to control the others as well.

I could also see Hungary expand its sphere of influence. After all they’ll definitely have a lot of control over Serbia and Bulgaria. The Byzantines will protest but can’t do much since Hungary will also be their best bet for survival.
It's also just as easy for the European states to blow their advantages.
Best case scenario it’ll be like the Spanish Reconquista where attempts to retake Anatolia will succeed but also suffer setbacks.
 
What do we think happens regarding Timur if Bayezid dies at Nicopolis?

There is not the same provocation from Bayezid so it's possible that Timur doesn't invade.
On the other hand, it's not like Timur needs much of an excuse. An Ottoman empire at war with itself is ripe for destruction and plunder.

If so any crusader states in Anatolia would be gone. Possibly also the Ottoman empire would not recover, and would be replaced in Anatolia in this timeline by some kind of Timurid sucessor state. (Although would this last? Or would it become basically Ottoman again within a generation or two?).

I can't see Timur crossing over into the Balkans. He was probably too bent on conquering China, plus he would need someone willing to ship him across.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if Timur swings into Anatolia if its rich enough to be worth it. He found a sufficiently convincing for him excuse to enter Delhi.

As far as a Timurid successor state - that, I think, depends on if he can be bothered to make it part of his empire in the first place. He didn't with the lands of the Golden Horde.

The Balkans don't seem like they're going to see Timur's armies, though.
 
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