WI: Nicholas II doesn't abdicate?

Would there have been any effect on how things went in Russia if Nicholas the II hadn't abdicated the throne, and how might these changes (if any) effect the years following?
 
Would there have been any effect on how things went in Russia if Nicholas the II hadn't abdicated the throne, and how might these changes (if any) effect the years following?
It is highly possible that the events of the February Revolution would have spiraled out of control if Nicholas tried to hold onto the throne. His abdication, and the beginning of a provisional government separate from the tradition of the autocracy were basically what defused the situation. Without that, it's easy to see an ad hoc peasant-proletarian coalition developing to violently overthrow him.
 
It wouldn't have ended well. An easier route would be to heed his uncle Paul's advice in late 1916 and announce a transition to proper constitutional monarchy with parliamentary supremacy. Maybe an abdication with one of the Grand Duchesses as regent for Alexei, but that's even more doubtful.
 
Even then it probably would have been too late to prevent some sort of revolution or massive change in government at some point in the near future. You'd probably need a pre-1900 POD to preserve the Russian Empire through WW1.
 
It is highly possible that the events of the February Revolution would have spiraled out of control if Nicholas tried to hold onto the throne. His abdication, and the beginning of a provisional government separate from the tradition of the autocracy were basically what defused the situation. Without that, it's easy to see an ad hoc peasant-proletarian coalition developing to violently overthrow him.

If we have a violent revolution in early 1917, one likely consequence is that the Bolsheviks are not a major player in it (i.e. Lenin can't get back to Russia in time, Trotsky is in New York). Instead, you probably have the Mensheviks as the leading revolutionary force - they initially dominated the Petrograd Soviet OTL, and it's not unreasonable to think that if Nicholas needs to be violently overthrown, they'd be the ones to do it.
 
Top