WI: Ngo Dinh Diem assassinated in 1962

What if the 1962 South Vietnamese Independence Palace bombing had succeeded in killing Ngo Dinh Diem? It was a pretty damn close call...

From the Wikipedia entry.

At around 07:00, the deer on the expansive lawns of the French colonial-era palace were frightened off as Quốc and Cử—flying American-built A-1 Skyraiders (A1H/AD-6 variant) single-seater ground attack planes—flew low over their target to inspect the ruling family's residence. On their second run, they dropped bombs and napalm before firing rockets and strafing the presidential compound with machine-gun fire. The two continued their runs for 30 minutes before units loyal to the president arrived and launched a counter-attack.

Taking advantage of poor weather and low cloud cover, the two pilots circled the palace at altitudes of around 150 m (490 ft), periodically diving out of the clouds to re-attack before darting back into them. The airstrike caught the Saigon garrison off guard and, in the confusion, they were unable to determine whether the aircraft were acting alone or with ground forces. Loyalist tanks and armoured personnel carriers rushed to their battle stations and anti-aircraft batteries opened fire, nearly hitting the loyalist aircraft from Bien Hoa Air Base in pursuit of the two rebel planes. Two tanks and a number of jeeps armed with 50-calibre machine guns patrolled the smoke-filled streets as a precaution.

The first 500 lb (230 kg) bomb penetrated a room in the western wing where Diệm was reading a biography of George Washington. The bomb failed to detonate, which gave Diệm enough time to seek shelter in a cellar in the eastern wing. He was joined there by his elder brother Archbishop Pierre Martin Ngô Đình Thục, younger brother Ngô Đình Nhu, Madame Nhu—who sustained an arm fracture while running toward the cellar—and their children.

So what if the bomb went off and killed Diem? Who would take control? Aren't the pilots still pretty much screwed? I'm assuming if Ngo Dinh Nhu makes a move, he can't possibly hold power long as he was even more hated than his brother. But what would the power struggle look like? Who might prevail?
 
A quick look suggests that the only really viable replacements were the military which likely means the revolving door show as in our timeline. I don't know enough about Vietnam to say what it successfully happening just shy of two years before the 1963 coup does for which generals end up taking the lead.
 
A quick look suggests that the only really viable replacements were the military which likely means the revolving door show as in our timeline. I don't know enough about Vietnam to say what it successfully happening just shy of two years before the 1963 coup does for which generals end up taking the lead.

Good point. But who revolves through the door is equally important, there is significantly varying political and military competence among the generals. And that raises the question rather Diem's ouster is a pill best swallowed sooner or later. And what general assumes power is going to affect when and if the Americans escalate, or if the Vietcong smells blood and tries to make a move.
 
And that raises the question rather Diem's ouster is a pill best swallowed sooner or later. And what general assumes power is going to affect when and if the Americans escalate, or if the Vietcong smells blood and tries to make a move.
If you assume that earlier is indeed better then the coup attempt in 1960 succeeding would be the best outcome. As for American escalation I think that would probably still go ahead, even if it was a military government with a civilian face rather than a corrupt authoritarian civilian one. The US was already pushing for liberalisation and reform of the Vietnamese government plus whilst the number of military advisors was doubled Diem was effectively sabotaging things due to paranoia over losing influence over the military, as long as the military reverses this and makes a show of reforming government policy I think things would run pretty much as in our timeline.
 
If you assume that earlier is indeed better then the coup attempt in 1960 succeeding would be the best outcome. As for American escalation I think that would probably still go ahead, even if it was a military government with a civilian face rather than a corrupt authoritarian civilian one. The US was already pushing for liberalisation and reform of the Vietnamese government plus whilst the number of military advisors was doubled Diem was effectively sabotaging things due to paranoia over losing influence over the military, as long as the military reverses this and makes a show of reforming government policy I think things would run pretty much as in our timeline.

Well, if the coup in 1960 succeeded, it probably would just weaken Diem and force him to make concessions, not remove him completely, and Diem or the Diemists may then attempt a counter-coup. Plus Nguyễn Chánh Thi was superstitious of the US, and didn't want them getting involved. Laos and Cambodia show us the Communists didn't give a damn about 'neutrality'.

And if the 1960 coup succeeds, that just means Diem has locked horns with Thi and Dong, so the Vietcong probably exploit this. And a general like Minh or Khanh will probably choose to exploit it for themselves, so the coup cycle begins in 1960 rather than 63'.
 
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