The Norse would settle it. The Vinland colony would grow slowly, being rather far from Europe to draw many immigrants, but many Greenlanders and Icelanders would move there. Natural growth would do most of the work, without the pressures of limited land in Greenland.
Initial contact with the Native Americans (from exploring beyond Vinland) would probably not be peaceful. Eventually, the King of Norway (whose domains would include Vinland) would likely issue a decree forbidding trade between Greenland/Vinland and Iceland. Virtually cut off from Europe, the Vinlanders might seek to trade with the natives, introducing ironworking, writing, Christianity, and Eurasian diseases. The latter allows them to expand into eastern Canada, and possibly New England. If they do establish peaceful trade with the Native Americans (possibly reaching the Iroquois via the St. Lawrence), that would probably push them to form a more organized government along Icelandic lines - a commonwealth, not a monarchy, and still nominally under Norwegian/Danish rule. Greenland is all but abandoned by 1400.
Regular contact with Europe probably resumes by the mid-1400s. By that point, the Basques were fishing off the Grand Banks, and would likely encounter Vinlander ships. Come the Little Ice Age, Vinland grows very wealthy off the fur trade. I'd expect a revolution by 1600 or so - no way is Denmark keeping Vinland under control, and Vinlanders would have their own identity, probably complete with a distinct Vinlander language. Other European powers colonize the Atlantic Seaboard, but Vinland dominates Canada and New England.
Why would the King of Norway forbid trade between Vinland and Iceland?
How would this happen? Newfoundland has been inhabited for almost 10,000 years. I suppose, though, it is possible for the island to be temporarily abandoned for some reason or another.
The natives of Newfoundland where one of the biggest obstacles to the Norse when it came to settling the Island.
So WI the Island was uninhabited by humans when the Norse arrived?
God, what a dickhead. Ships coming to Greenland were already way too few and far between.He did IOTL (albeit between Greenland and Iceland). He wanted all the customs duties and such coming directly to Norway.
Ah the joys of Monarchy.God, what a dickhead. Ships coming to Greenland were already way too few and far between.
God, what a dickhead. Ships coming to Greenland were already way too few and far between.
The natives of Newfoundland where one of the biggest obstacles to the Norse when it came to settling the Island.
So WI the Island was uninhabited by humans when the Norse arrived?
Or just non-representative government in general. Though even representative government has joyous moments like that.Ah the joys of Monarchy.
There will be food, but plenty? Maybe there won't even be enough! The Medieval Warm Period is ending whether you like it or not, and all those untilled meadows and unfelled forests will take a lot of work to clear and cultivate. For the first few years the majority food consumed will probably be from hunting, trapping, and gathering berries. But I could be mistaken, I don't really know all that much about agriculture. What do you think?In practice, the natives were no real obstacle. The Norse would have outnumbered them at any point of contact. Possibly vastly.
However, the Norse did not know that. As far as they were aware, the natives had the same population density as they did, or the Irish for example. What is more, the generation that made contact, Erics children, had grown up with basically infinite free land. When Eric the red settled Greenland, the Inuit were settling it pretty much simultaneously from the northwest, but the two population groups were tremendously far apart. Eric the red came from Europe, and had grow up with a mindset where land = wealth. His children grew up with infinite free land around them. Vinland was distinctly better land, but they were not that motivate to fight for something they already had in such abundance.
But if they don't encounter any natives for whatever reason... I expect they will settle, and the better land and abundant timber will draw more settlers from Greenland. There will be plenty of food and the population will go into an exponential growth period.
It's not actually clear where the Norse fought the Natives. We know that they landed at a base camp called "Leifsbudir", and from there they sallied out to the wider territory they called "Vinland" where they fought with native peoples. We're pretty sure that "Leifsbudir" is the remains of the longhouses in Newfoundland, but the actual areas where they met and fought Native peoples may have been any place along the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Maritimes, maybe even as far south as New England. In short, it's possible that the Norse encountered no natives in Newfoundland at the Leifsbudir site, but decided not to colonize the island anyway due to other reasons.
In practice, the natives were no real obstacle. The Norse would have outnumbered them at any point of contact. Possibly vastly.
However, the Norse did not know that. As far as they were aware, the natives had the same population density as they did, or the Irish for example. What is more, the generation that made contact, Erics children, had grown up with basically infinite free land. When Eric the red settled Greenland, the Inuit were settling it pretty much simultaneously from the northwest, but the two population groups were tremendously far apart. Eric the red came from Europe, and had grow up with a mindset where land = wealth. His children grew up with infinite free land around them. Vinland was distinctly better land, but they were not that motivate to fight for something they already had in such abundance.
But if they don't encounter any natives for whatever reason... I expect they will settle, and the better land and abundant timber will draw more settlers from Greenland. There will be plenty of food and the population will go into an exponential growth period.
With Straumfjord in northern Newfoundland and Hóp in northeastern New Brunswick, Vinland can be defined. Vinland comprised the coastal region around the Gulf of St. Lawrence, from the Strait of Belle Isle in the north, to the Northumberland Strait in the south. L'Anse aux Meadows-Straumfjord was part of Vinland and was the gateway to its rare and valuable resources.
Aboriginal fireplaces, artifacts, and tent floors are scattered throughout the site. A concentration of such sites, on the southern shore of Epaves Bay, close to the waterline, includes traces of Maritime Archaic, Groswater Palaeoeskimo, Middle Dorset Palaeoeskimo, and two Indian occupations, one before the Norse, and one after. The former has affinities to the Cow Head complex, the latter to Point Revenge and Little Passage complex, which in turn is undoubtedly proto-Beothuk (Pastore 1989, 1998: 272). There were, however, no Aboriginal groups on the site at the time of the Norse.
Present-day North Americans have a hard time grappling with the thought that the Norse gave up on Vinland almost as soon as they found it. Surely they must have wanted to stay forever! In the eyes of the Greenlanders, however, the incentive for a permanent colony was simply not there. At the time, the Greenland Norse clustered in two or three small communities, far from each other, with no more than 400 people in the East and Middle Settlements and perhaps 100 in the West Settlement.40 They were not yet solidly established, land remained to be cleared and they were already far from relatives and friends in Iceland and Norway. The areas settled were lush in the summer, with plenty of fodder for still-growing herds, more than they could use. There was no shortage of game: walrus, whale, seal, birds, arctic fox, polar bear and, notably, caribou (which was not available in Iceland). Soapstone for household items, likewise unavailable in Iceland, was plentiful. The only crucial missing commodities were staples such as flour and salt and good lumber for buildings and boats.41 Lumber was no doubt part of the prime cargo brought back from Vinland, but good lumber was also available in Markland, and Labrador is much closer to Greenland than the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Vinland had diversified resources, including luxuries such as walnuts and grapes, necessary for any magnate who wished to display and thereby maintain his authority. Vinland lacked, however, other equally important wares, which were available in Europe: flour, salt, spices, sword blades, bronze, copper, brass, silver, gold, fine textiles, glass, artwork, and precious stones. Hence, regular voyages to Norway were a necessity; voyages to Vinland were not. Ships were rare, owned only by a few members of the elite. The sagas give ample evidence that Atlantic voyages were fraught with danger and that safe arrival was never assured. Vinland was as far away as Norway and the voyage even more dangerous, as it required an assessment of longitude, for which no accurate method then existed. Maintaining traffic in both directions would have strained the small Greenland colony beyond its capacity. In the eleventh century, the colony was too small to splinter off a daughter colony in Vinland and, in the centuries that followed, it never reached sufficient size to afford this form of expansion. Besides, the Norse were outnumbered by thousands of Native people already in Vinland, people with whom they had already fallen into conflict.
65 In order to obtain wares from Europe, the Norse needed goods to offer in exchange. Walnuts, grapes, and lumber from Vinland would not have been very useful, since these were available in Europe as well. Only walrus and narwhal tusks, and products from seals and other sea mammals fit the bill. For these, the Norse had to go north, to Norðsetr, the Northern Shielings, in a direction opposite to Vinland. Under these circumstances it is not difficult to understand why Vinland was not colonized, or why L'Anse aux Meadows-Straumfjord was soon abandoned. Sporadic voyages to relatively nearby Markland continued, and there is some evidence for forages, both planned and unplanned, into the Arctic (Gad 1971: 123, Schledermann 1996, Sutherland 2000).
Or just non-representative government in general. Though even representative government has joyous moments like that.
There will be food, but plenty? Maybe there won't even be enough! The Medieval Warm Period is ending whether you like it or not, and all those untilled meadows and unfelled forests will take a lot of work to clear and cultivate. For the first few years the majority food consumed will probably be from hunting, trapping, and gathering berries. But I could be mistaken, I don't really know all that much about agriculture. What do you think?
Thanks for the link. It was a great read that told me a lot I hadn't known before.Everyone who wants to comment on a Vinland thread should read this scholarly article so we don't keep repeating the same things over and over again
One thing the article 123456789blaaa provided that I hadn't considered before was the issue of longitude. Unlike latitude, calculating longitude was a huge problem till well into the 1700's. Newfoundland is more south of Greenland than west, which would have made this an exceptionally difficult journey. Maybe even more than all the way back to Norway from Greenland. So transport to and from Vinland would have not at all been a certain prospect. The Grand Banks too were to the southeast of Newfoundland, so a more difficult journey than just to northern Newfoundland. Not an easy target for Greenland, meaning they'd only become relevant after Vinland was established.I think these are the people who made a very serious go at an uninhabited Greenland, and made it a going concern for half a millennium. What is more, they were the children and grandchildren of the people who colonized Iceland, so they have very recent practical experience of colonizing cold lands in their cultural skill package. Newfoundland is better land than Iceland and far better than Greenland. Its about even with the coast of Norway, and coping skills seem like they should transfer well. Also, this was a culture that harvested marine resources heavily. And they would be next to the Grand Banks, one of the two best fishing cornucopias in the world.
Additionally, the medieval warm period was just coming up. It is normally considered to have run from about 950 to 1250. With the Norse arriving around 985-1000, they had a quarter of a millennium of increased temperatures and growing seasons coming up. About the same amount of time that has passes from the American revolution to today.
I am just reading Seavers book on the Norse in Greenland. I believe they had a number of additional significant advantages in food production.
Thanks for the link. It was a great read that told me a lot I hadn't known before.
One thing the article 123456789blaaa provided that I hadn't considered before was the issue of longitude. Unlike latitude, calculating longitude was a huge problem till well into the 1700's. Newfoundland is more south of Greenland than west, which would have made this an exceptionally difficult journey. Maybe even more than all the way back to Norway from Greenland. So transport to and from Vinland would have not at all been a certain prospect. The Grand Banks too were to the southeast of Newfoundland, so a more difficult journey than just to northern Newfoundland. Not an easy target for Greenland, meaning they'd only become relevant after Vinland was established.
I also think many are overestimating Newfoundland's fertility. Much of the soil isn't too suited for agriculture, and it is mostly in the southern parts which would be a more difficult journey for the Norse.
Another thing that caught my attention was Greenland's population limits. You need roughly 300-400 settlers for an entirely self-sufficient populace. Greenland at the time of Vinland's discovery was like 15 years old, and only had like 500 people itself. It wouldn't have enough population to be able to create a secondary colony in Vinland for generations, by which time Vinland was not such a mystery to be explored and the weather was starting to worsen. The more numerous Icelanders would have an even worse trip to Newfoundland.
It is relevant that the Greenlanders mainly explored to the west. Maybe this is related to the sailing conditions. Still, the stories about the trips to Vinland does not mention sailing as particularly challenging. And we do know the Greenlanders went on timbering expeditions there for centuries. The Basque is said to have reached Vinland from Spain with not much improved ships and navigation, I doubt getting there from Greenland would be that much more difficult.
Fertility compared to what though? I'd think it was a rather large improvement on Greenland. And I don't think sailing down a long a coastline with fjords was all that much of an additional difficulty for the Norse. That was what they did.
The time from Vinland to the end of the medieval warm period was a quarter of a thousand years. The population of Canada was about 3 000 in 1666, 42 000 in 1730 and 3,1 million in 1861. Immigration contributed, but natural increase was the driver. Norse Greenland had very little immigration, as far as I know close to zero. Their population still peaked above 5000 people in a far more climatically constrained and marginal environment. The thing is, what we have here is a human population with developed food-processing strategies in a virgin environment with a climate perfectly suited for their cultural skill package. With most of the normal constraints on human population growth removed.
The food package of the Norse in Greenland included barley corn, angelica, flax, sheep, pigs and cattle as part of their farming. In addition they harvested berries and dulse, and hunted caribou and seals. They seemed to have been rather skilled conservators of seal populations. They also ate mussels and probably a lot of fish. Even if the postulated Newfoundland environment have only been without humans for a century or two, it'll be teeming with game.
a lot of that is stuff I've read in the past, nothing really new. As I've said on here in the past, I've often thought that the only thing that could get Vinland as a going concern would be royal backing... basically, someone with the ships and money and troops to go there, set up a colony, guard it, and have regular contact back to Scandinavia. But the big stumbling block there is 'why would anyone royal bother to do that?"Everyone who wants to comment on a Vinland thread should read this scholarly article so we don't keep repeating the same things over and over again.
a lot of that is stuff I've read in the past, nothing really new. As I've said on here in the past, I've often thought that the only thing that could get Vinland as a going concern would be royal backing... basically, someone with the ships and money and troops to go there, set up a colony, guard it, and have regular contact back to Scandinavia. But the big stumbling block there is 'why would anyone royal bother to do that?"
We know that when Eric the Red led people into Greenland in order to establish a colony, multiple ships of people were lost. If you think the journey to NewFoundLand wasn't difficult, then you need to explain why the settlements there weren't meant to be permanent colonies.
- snip -
Everyone who wants to comment on a Vinland thread should read this scholarly article so we don't keep repeating the same things over and over again.