WI: New Deal Dictatorship

So as consequence of playing too much Kaiserreich, and seeing the variety of ways in which America could've gone full dystopia, what are the possibilities of the New Deal Coalition entrenching itself into power as a dictatorship, a coalition within the Democrats nominally left-wing on economics, but hard right on cultural issues like segregation?

One way I could see it is if the NRA isn't declared unconstitutional (A.L.A. Schechter Poultry Corp. v. United States doesn't happen, or the courts rule in favor of the government), from thereon Hugh S. Jackson remains within the Roosevelt Administration and gains popularity, becoming FDR's VP candidate in 1944, President in 1945 and winning again in 1948. Jackson had some very clear sympathies for the likes of Mussolini, and Italian corporatism is what inspired a lot of his work in the NRA.

As for how it actually evolves into a dictatorship, maybe something like the Business Plot is attempted (lots of businesses were chafing under the Blue Eagle initiatives), but is promptly put down by the military, allowing either Jackson or his successor to set up an emergency administration. Even Jackson himself described the Roosevelt Administration (which he was a member of...) as a benevolent dictatorship, and himself was accused many times of harboring fascist tendencies.

How would such a US handle itself in World War 2? I'd assume it'd still join if it keeps the same embargo on Japan as in OTL, but in the Cold War it might behave differently, maybe either becoming isolationist, or a strategic partner of the Soviets?
 

manav95

Banned
So as consequence of playing too much Kaiserreich, and seeing the variety of ways in which America could've gone full dystopia, what are the possibilities of the New Deal Coalition entrenching itself into power as a dictatorship, a coalition within the Democrats nominally left-wing on economics, but hard right on cultural issues like segregation?

One way I could see it is if the NRA isn't declared unconstitutional (A.L.A. Schechter Poultry Corp. v. United States doesn't happen, or the courts rule in favor of the government), from thereon Hugh S. Jackson remains within the Roosevelt Administration and gains popularity, becoming FDR's VP candidate in 1944, President in 1945 and winning again in 1948. Jackson had some very clear sympathies for the likes of Mussolini, and Italian corporatism is what inspired a lot of his work in the NRA.

As for how it actually evolves into a dictatorship, maybe something like the Business Plot is attempted (lots of businesses were chafing under the Blue Eagle initiatives), but is promptly put down by the military, allowing either Jackson or his successor to set up an emergency administration. Even Jackson himself described the Roosevelt Administration (which he was a member of...) as a benevolent dictatorship, and himself was accused many times of harboring fascist tendencies.

How would such a US handle itself in World War 2? I'd assume it'd still join if it keeps the same embargo on Japan as in OTL, but in the Cold War it might behave differently, maybe either becoming isolationist, or a strategic partner of the Soviets?

Basically Calvin Coolidge runs and wins 1928, and his laissez-faire policies lead to a much worse Great Depression. Where unemployment is 35-40% instead of 25% and people are openly starving to death on the streets. After a contentious and bitter 1932 election, FDR wins a resounding landslide, only losing Maine and Vermont and shattering the GOP even harder. Then have him get assassinated or die of a stroke late in 1933 or early 1934.

His VP John Garner takes over amid the popularity of the New Deal, but drags his feet on things like the TVA and publoxnworks programs. He was always a bit on the conservative side of things. The Democrats make little or no gains in 1934, whereas Republicans split into different progressive and conservative factions, each of which make their own gains.

By 1936, the economic recovery has stalled and things are little better than they were in 1932. Huey Long doesn't get shot like OTL and runs a populist campaign to seize the Democratic nomination over Garner. He wins with a bare majority of the popular vote yet an EC landslide due to the split opposition.

Long alienates Southern conservatives with his populist programs and neutral stance on racial issues. He's no friend of the Negro, but he lacked the hardass attitude towards them that folks like Thurmond or Tillman had. Many leave the party and join forces with nationalists and conservatives based in New England and the Great Plains, who oppose Long's redistribution and NRA program which is FDR's otl plan on steroids.

The Business plot happens and a coup attempt occurs, but is crushed by the timely defection of MacArthur to Long's side. Long crushes the coup but makes a deal with the nationalists and Southern conservative factions in the country; he would commit to upholding the Jim Crow order in the south and enforcing moral values.

In order to keep blacks under control he encourages a massive Great Migration to the north to reduce their power numbers in the south and reduce racial tensions since they would have access to plentiful jobs in the North. Most of the black population South jumps at the opportunities and moves up north. WW2 happens fairly like OTL, except with mass deportations of Japanese and German nationals once the war is over.

Long wins many terms until 1960, when he retires due to the sheer stress of managing a prosperous, subtly oppressive New Deal America. The counterculture is starting to mount an effective opposition to is regime and women are now demanding more rights and equal roles in the workplace and society. Black people, who are experiencing more prosperity, are emboldened and demand actual equal rights with whites and an end to the subtle prejudice and discrimination of the North. At this point, the 1960s becomes chaotic and bloody, the end result being unclear.
 
Ah yes 170 years of democratic tradition unseated and nobody will do jack shit about it.

This. Are people willing to put more power into the hands of the Federal government? Sure; but that was because those programs being implimented were directly targeted to restoring the general welfare and reigning in the immediate damage of capitalism overreach, not to increase the power of the State for the welfare of the State. It's important to remember the New Deal Coalition was... fragile at best, being a "Big Tent" held up mainly by the giant pole that was Roosevelt and the need to coordinate the country to solve the immediate crisis. Once the treat subsided, people wanted a "Return to Normalacy"

Fascism never had strong competition in the areas it emerged in from a strong libertarian tradition: the German, Italian, Spanish ect. Left either being mainly Communist or the "Parlament of the Proffessors" type elitist modernizers that went up against a more traditional-minded mass rural population. You don't have that luxury in America.
 
I’m confused by who Hugh S. Jackson is?

I know of Attorney General, Robert H. Jackson, who would make an interesting president.

What about an alternative vp for 1944, such as:
- Dwight D. Eisenhower (general and IOTL new deal republican)

List of Democratic Presidents of the United State
1933-1945: Franklin D. Roosevelt
1945-1957: Dwight D. Eisenhower
1957-1965: Lyndon B. Johnson
1965-1973: Hubert H. Humphrey
1973-1981: George McGovern
1981-1989: Jimmy Carter
1989-1997: Ted Kennedy
1997-2005: Al Gore

List of Democratic Vice Presidents of the United State
1933-1945: John Nance Garner
1933–1941: Henry A. Wallace
1941–1945: Dwight D. Eisenhower
1945-1957: Harry Truman
1957-1965: Hubert H. Humphrey
1965-1973: Edmund Muskie
1973-1980: Robert F. Kennedy
1980-1981: Vacant
1981-1989: Ted Kennedy
1989-1997: Al Gore
 
Ah yes 170 years of democratic tradition unseated and nobody will do jack shit about it.
No chance that there wouldn't be opposition of some sort. Especially since issues like segregation wouldn't last forever, and no matter whether an emergency is seen as needed, eventually people are going to see little need for it and demand change. A dictatorship wouldn't last long, not unless the government decided to turn up the repression Soviet style. It's also interesting to think about one thing, since this would be a dictatorship based on state intervention rather than pandering to businesses, I think some like Ford would likely ship out oversees. He was reluctant to do much with the OTL NRA, and I doubt he'd be okay with an expanded one.

Basically Calvin Coolidge runs and wins 1928, and his laissez-faire policies lead to a much worse Great Depression. Where unemployment is 35-40% instead of 25% and people are openly starving to death on the streets. After a contentious and bitter 1932 election, FDR wins a resounding landslide, only losing Maine and Vermont and shattering the GOP even harder. Then have him get assassinated or die of a stroke late in 1933 or early 1934.

His VP John Garner takes over amid the popularity of the New Deal, but drags his feet on things like the TVA and publoxnworks programs. He was always a bit on the conservative side of things. The Democrats make little or no gains in 1934, whereas Republicans split into different progressive and conservative factions, each of which make their own gains.

By 1936, the economic recovery has stalled and things are little better than they were in 1932. Huey Long doesn't get shot like OTL and runs a populist campaign to seize the Democratic nomination over Garner. He wins with a bare majority of the popular vote yet an EC landslide due to the split opposition.

Long alienates Southern conservatives with his populist programs and neutral stance on racial issues. He's no friend of the Negro, but he lacked the hardass attitude towards them that folks like Thurmond or Tillman had. Many leave the party and join forces with nationalists and conservatives based in New England and the Great Plains, who oppose Long's redistribution and NRA program which is FDR's otl plan on steroids.

The Business plot happens and a coup attempt occurs, but is crushed by the timely defection of MacArthur to Long's side. Long crushes the coup but makes a deal with the nationalists and Southern conservative factions in the country; he would commit to upholding the Jim Crow order in the south and enforcing moral values.

In order to keep blacks under control he encourages a massive Great Migration to the north to reduce their power numbers in the south and reduce racial tensions since they would have access to plentiful jobs in the North. Most of the black population South jumps at the opportunities and moves up north. WW2 happens fairly like OTL, except with mass deportations of Japanese and German nationals once the war is over.

Long wins many terms until 1960, when he retires due to the sheer stress of managing a prosperous, subtly oppressive New Deal America. The counterculture is starting to mount an effective opposition to is regime and women are now demanding more rights and equal roles in the workplace and society. Black people, who are experiencing more prosperity, are emboldened and demand actual equal rights with whites and an end to the subtle prejudice and discrimination of the North. At this point, the 1960s becomes chaotic and bloody, the end result being unclear.
Very interesting, especially since you bring up one point. There were no Presidential term limits instated in the 30s-40s, you could easily have someone go full Putin and keep his perpetual rule while keeping a veil of democracy. I wonder though, what would a USA that's more to the hard left on economics look like in terms of foreign policy? Since we're in agreement WW2 would go pretty much as OTL, as I doubt any US government would side with the Axis just because some people think Mussolini's ideas sounded good. And speaking of which, if the US has any role in occupying Italy, would there be any likelihood of a 'reformed' version of the Italian regime being propped up by the Americans, as long as it stops being 'publicly' fascist? We might see an alignment with the Soviets on certain things, and isolationism in most regards. The 'Cold War' might just be the Western European states struggling to oppose American and Soviet domination whenever they can.

I’m confused by who Hugh S. Jackson is?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugh_S._Johnson
 

manav95

Banned
No chance that there wouldn't be opposition of some sort. Especially since issues like segregation wouldn't last forever, and no matter whether an emergency is seen as needed, eventually people are going to see little need for it and demand change. A dictatorship wouldn't last long, not unless the government decided to turn up the repression Soviet style. It's also interesting to think about one thing, since this would be a dictatorship based on state intervention rather than pandering to businesses, I think some like Ford would likely ship out oversees. He was reluctant to do much with the OTL NRA, and I doubt he'd be okay with an expanded one.


Very interesting, especially since you bring up one point. There were no Presidential term limits instated in the 30s-40s, you could easily have someone go full Putin and keep his perpetual rule while keeping a veil of democracy. I wonder though, what would a USA that's more to the hard left on economics look like in terms of foreign policy? Since we're in agreement WW2 would go pretty much as OTL, as I doubt any US government would side with the Axis just because some people think Mussolini's ideas sounded good. And speaking of which, if the US has any role in occupying Italy, would there be any likelihood of a 'reformed' version of the Italian regime being propped up by the Americans, as long as it stops being 'publicly' fascist? We might see an alignment with the Soviets on certain things, and isolationism in most regards. The 'Cold War' might just be the Western European states struggling to oppose American and Soviet domination whenever they can.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugh_S._Johnson

Well Italy becoming subtly fascist sounds like a good idea. In terms of foreign policy, it depends on how Stalin and Long get along. Huey Long is not the Communist Stalin was or even a strict authoritarian; he just would monopolize power under a New Deal umbrella with an economy running under dirigisme.

I think that the US might align more with France due to a hard left lean and coming from a generally isolationist position. The discrediting of free market capitalism means that the US would view the Soviets as just a bunch of authoritarian bullies, but after Stalin dies, the US and Soviet Union could see a rapprochement. The Cold War's first stage will be between the Soviets and the British, who will likely be under Tory rule for the 50s and 60s. Then they would most likely withdraw to keep the Empire together, leading to greater Soviet domination. In the 1960s, if the US becomes a bastion of free market capitalism again, the Cold War will become more recognizable.

Otherwise, if the US remains staunchly socialist with a trend of social liberalism vs social conservatism, the world will likely be more peaceful as the Soviets and Anericans trend towards liberal Scandinavian style democracies. A world far less dystopian than OTL.
 

DougM

Donor
If FDR was still alive today he would be sitting in the chair that Trump is currently sitting in. Between putting in emergency social systems, getting folks back to work and bringing the US through WW2 he would have effectively became president for life.
If he was a bit more of a power made politician he could have easily have pushed harder to take over (for the good of the people). At 63 when he died he could have (if his health was good) made it until at least 60. During that time he puts in enough Supreme Court Judges to get away with just about anything. So effectively we have a week dictatorship. Similar to Russia of today.
Taking advantage of WW2 he implements various new laws to protecvus.
Then does the same after the war against the Red Menence. That time he uses the Reds infiltrating Hollywood to take over all the movies. Then it spreads into TV and Radio and Newspapers and he has to take over them to stop the Communist propaganda.
Then once he has that mostly under control he can go after the schools. Remember it was not hard to hide things Beck when we did not have instant news transmission. And once he has control of the kids it is just a matter of time before he has a loyal following.
Then on a visit to Texas the Great Leader is assasinated. His faithful VP, a former Navy officer that FDR met during the war and who has became his personally groomed replacement and his right hand man (and hatchet man) and whom some folks say has been running the government these last few years because if the rumors are true FDR has been slowly developing mental problems. Steps up and with tears running down his cheeks takes the oath of office and vows to bring the perpetrators to justice, After a long investigation during which the Assasin is determined to be a communist agent that had actually lived and trained behind the iron curtain things get complicated. The assasin (a card carrying Republican) is assasinated when the local sharif (with Rightvleaning tendencies) let’s a local strip Club owner with mob connections get the drop on them and kill the assasin, the Gunman is shot and dies a week later but not without first pointing the fingers at the person who hired him.
After a long investigation it is eventually discovered that the ring leader of this was non other then the 1960 Presidential candidate himself. And that the leadership of the GOP has been working with both organized crime and the Communists. And in a complete act of desperation various attacks are made on the government as the GOP launches its coup early.
With complete caim the president goes on nation television as he address a joint session of Congress laying out the facts. And saying he would ask for a declaration of war against the USSR but a Third World War would be so devistating that it could kill off all mankind. And that it is not what the great man FDR would have wanted. Our Great Leader would have willingly sacrificed his live a thousand times in order to save his beloved country and it’s citi from the horrors of a nuclear war.
Besides the USSR was just acting as it’s nature but the true evil and the instigators and the people whom are truly responsible for this despicable act are not the Communists in distant Moscow but are in fact the evil Republicans here in Washington and throughout the US. And that with much sadness he must ask that congress outlaw the GOP and as such he has issued an executive order to start gathering information and investigating how far the rot goes. And turning around LBJ walks from the room.
Later that night after a long and ugly argument the Republican congressman leave the capital and return to there homes around DC only for many of them (all the leaders and other vocal members) are arrested for treason.
Over the next year the Republican Party is formaly outlawed and as the investigation continues many prominent citizens both officially members of the GOP and many not on the rolls (and even a good number of Democrats) are arrested as evidence comes out proving that they had direct knowledge and participated in the failed coup.
By the end of the 60s democracy is all but eliminated in the US...


It could have happened maybe not the way I indicated but don’t go thinking that it is impossible for the US to become a dictatorship. It could have happened and it still could. And the more the Citizens value “safety “ and “security” the easier it is. And while I am not going to argue for or against the patriot act the reality is that if you tried to pass that bill in 1901 and you would have the Citizens up in arms (probably literally up in arms) and you would have Teddy leading them. So over the years the views of Citizens have changed and they will change in the future and if you manipulate that the right way you will get away with a lot. Remember no one vote Hitler in as Dictator. He got in through the backdoor and used a lot of questionable things as excuses to take a bit more power and then a bit more and handed out rewards to keep the people happy and by the time the average person realized what had happened it was to late.
And that is the problem by the time you realize that the government is out of control and is a dictatorship it is usually to late to do anything but start a revolution and people get killed in revolutions. So maybe the dictatorship is not so bad after all,l.
 
Maybe the Italian Social Republic survives as a consequence of an alt-WW2, especially if Balbo stays alive to have been propped up as an alternative to Mussolini. Its a pariah in Europe, and surrounded by states that despise it. A sort of a North Korea to the USA's PRC. Gotta remember that before WW2 and even in some occasions after it, Americans actually liked the fascist regime in Italy. It was naturally popular with segments of both the right-wing laissez-faire types and the ones in favor of economic interventionism, didn't need to be propped up like with the German-American Bund. While I doubt they'd allow anything openly calling itself Fascism or Nazism to take hold in the Post-WW2 era, I figure it's one arena where the alt-WAllies might start disagreeing, with the US being considered a USSR of the West than a permanent partner of the British.

If FDR was still alive today he would be sitting in the chair that Trump is currently sitting in. Between putting in emergency social systems, getting folks back to work and bringing the US through WW2 he would have effectively became president for life.
If he was a bit more of a power made politician he could have easily have pushed harder to take over (for the good of the people). At 63 when he died he could have (if his health was good) made it until at least 60. During that time he puts in enough Supreme Court Judges to get away with just about anything. So effectively we have a week dictatorship. Similar to Russia of today.
Taking advantage of WW2 he implements various new laws to protecvus.
Then does the same after the war against the Red Menence. That time he uses the Reds infiltrating Hollywood to take over all the movies. Then it spreads into TV and Radio and Newspapers and he has to take over them to stop the Communist propaganda.
Then once he has that mostly under control he can go after the schools. Remember it was not hard to hide things Beck when we did not have instant news transmission. And once he has control of the kids it is just a matter of time before he has a loyal following.
Then on a visit to Texas the Great Leader is assasinated. His faithful VP, a former Navy officer that FDR met during the war and who has became his personally groomed replacement and his right hand man (and hatchet man) and whom some folks say has been running the government these last few years because if the rumors are true FDR has been slowly developing mental problems. Steps up and with tears running down his cheeks takes the oath of office and vows to bring the perpetrators to justice, After a long investigation during which the Assasin is determined to be a communist agent that had actually lived and trained behind the iron curtain things get complicated. The assasin (a card carrying Republican) is assasinated when the local sharif (with Rightvleaning tendencies) let’s a local strip Club owner with mob connections get the drop on them and kill the assasin, the Gunman is shot and dies a week later but not without first pointing the fingers at the person who hired him.
After a long investigation it is eventually discovered that the ring leader of this was non other then the 1960 Presidential candidate himself. And that the leadership of the GOP has been working with both organized crime and the Communists. And in a complete act of desperation various attacks are made on the government as the GOP launches its coup early.
With complete caim the president goes on nation television as he address a joint session of Congress laying out the facts. And saying he would ask for a declaration of war against the USSR but a Third World War would be so devistating that it could kill off all mankind. And that it is not what the great man FDR would have wanted. Our Great Leader would have willingly sacrificed his live a thousand times in order to save his beloved country and it’s citi from the horrors of a nuclear war.
Besides the USSR was just acting as it’s nature but the true evil and the instigators and the people whom are truly responsible for this despicable act are not the Communists in distant Moscow but are in fact the evil Republicans here in Washington and throughout the US. And that with much sadness he must ask that congress outlaw the GOP and as such he has issued an executive order to start gathering information and investigating how far the rot goes. And turning around LBJ walks from the room.
Later that night after a long and ugly argument the Republican congressman leave the capital and return to there homes around DC only for many of them (all the leaders and other vocal members) are arrested for treason.
Over the next year the Republican Party is formaly outlawed and as the investigation continues many prominent citizens both officially members of the GOP and many not on the rolls (and even a good number of Democrats) are arrested as evidence comes out proving that they had direct knowledge and participated in the failed coup.
By the end of the 60s democracy is all but eliminated in the US...


It could have happened maybe not the way I indicated but don’t go thinking that it is impossible for the US to become a dictatorship. It could have happened and it still could. And the more the Citizens value “safety “ and “security” the easier it is. And while I am not going to argue for or against the patriot act the reality is that if you tried to pass that bill in 1901 and you would have the Citizens up in arms (probably literally up in arms) and you would have Teddy leading them. So over the years the views of Citizens have changed and they will change in the future and if you manipulate that the right way you will get away with a lot. Remember no one vote Hitler in as Dictator. He got in through the backdoor and used a lot of questionable things as excuses to take a bit more power and then a bit more and handed out rewards to keep the people happy and by the time the average person realized what had happened it was to late.
And that is the problem by the time you realize that the government is out of control and is a dictatorship it is usually to late to do anything but start a revolution and people get killed in revolutions. So maybe the dictatorship is not so bad after all,l.
Also an interesting scenario, and I agree, no country is exempt from a dictatorship taking hold. The Great Depression were pretty desperate times, and there were movies produced that literally had a subtext of calling on FDR to take on the mantle of Dictator and go all the way. We've seen plenty of timelines here that have plausibly led towards a subtle or open dictatorship in America. I don't think a fully New Deal America would be so high on McCarthyist anti-communism though. The scapegoat I imagine instead would be Big Money Capital who were often blamed as one of the causes for the Great Depression before communists became the main 'enemy' following the Second Red Scare of the 40s. FDR was particularly friendly with Stalin, and in some instances FDR and Stalin were more in agreement with each other than they were with Churchill. So maybe a lot of businesses who don't want to cow-tow to the increasingly powerful NRA attempt a coup, fail, and flee overseas where they're picked up by the Europeans hoping to use their "expertise" in maintaining their colonies through economic if not territorial means. Neocolonialism replaces Colonialism in a shorter matter of time than OTL. Gradually these businesses end up with lobbyists in London, Paris and Brussels rather than DC.

Meanwhile a more populist America, either under Long, a surviving FDR or someone else, would be less intervening in Latin America, probably leading to better relations overall with those countries rather than just the military leaders. What if this America actually accepted Ho Chi Minh's calls for recognition, ironically leading to him and his government becoming strategic allies of the US in East Asia?
 
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