BlondieBC
Banned
I know that involvement in the War was a big issue in South Africa, and if things had gone the other way, what would be the effects on the war as a whole? And what butterflies would it have on South Africa?
South Africa might become a Republic during the war and leave the common wealth.
I think you'd need an earlier POD, but yes, it could be very interesting.
I wonder if the Union would fracture? For all of the Afrikaner dominance of the Union, the English speaking community was pretty powerful economically and did dominate large parts of the country. Then SA is also almost surrounded by British colonies, protectorates or misc (S Rhodesia!), all of which would be contributing to the War Effort.
I wonder if the Governor General would dissolve parliament if the Government refused to enter? Some sort of semi coup in support of Britain's interests?
Hence my thoughts that you need a stronger fracture in the 1930s to make this possible.
There were a lot of English and Afrikaner speakers who did not want the 3rd Boer War, so it would likely stay together.
I can see the UK trying a coup, but it could also backfire. More likely they accept it. The UK can still buy the resources of South Africa, but a coup risk a war with South Africa with the UK can least afford to send divisions to Africa. South Africans consider 1910 to be their year of independence, so the GG dissolving parliament just results in a Republic. SA most likely just sells to the Allies, since this is the only one they can really trade with anyway.
As to impact on the war, I think it benefits the Japanese. IMO, the UK pulls even more forces from the Indian and Pacific Ocean to make sure to keep the Suez.
An interesting question is if there were 4 few Allied division in the Pacific in 1941, how does this change the diplomatic gain. Is it possible the UK/USA decide to accept the Japanese occupation of IndoChina?