WI: Neutral Italy in WW1?

Austria-Hungary would be able to devote more troops to the other fronts.

Weather this lets the central powers win is anyones gues.

If everything still collapses as OTL it might have interesting effects on the inter-war period,for one the state SHS(basically big croatia) might actually survive to some extent with no danger of italian annexation.

Italy might still try to grab Triest but i dont see them getting much more if they stayed neutral,the croatia coast and south tyrol is deffinatly out of the question.

If we consider the habsburgs sending more soldiers south to the salonica front as well then serbia would probably be to smashed to even think of making any yugoslavia.

In the end we might even get some kind of peace of exhaustion and avoid ww2 altogether.
 
The blockade is a lot looser and no Alpine Front gives the CP a lot of chance of victory, not a given though.

Italy would enter either if it's clear the other is loosing, saving a lot of manpower.
 
What if Italy had stayed neutral in the conflict, how would it have affected the war?

CP's in better shape overall. Austria is in better shape when attempting to conduct negotiations with France in 1917 - without Italy in the war, the most serious complication to a side deal does not exist.

Assuming the US enters the war, the Central Powers will still lose, but this time Italy jumps on Austria right as the war is ending....
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Austria keeps Tyrol in the CP looses scenario, Austria gains navel dominance over the Adriatic that threatens Italy if CP win, and in both Italy is treated like crap for it's non-involvement.
 
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Austria-Hungary would be able to devote more troops to the other fronts.

Weather this lets the central powers win is anyones gues.

If everything still collapses as OTL it might have interesting effects on the inter-war period,for one the state SHS(basically big croatia) might actually survive to some extent with no danger of italian annexation.

Italy might still try to grab Triest but i dont see them getting much more if they stayed neutral,the croatia coast and south tyrol is deffinatly out of the question.

If we consider the habsburgs sending more soldiers south to the salonica front as well then serbia would probably be to smashed to even think of making any yugoslavia.

In the end we might even get some kind of peace of exhaustion and avoid ww2 altogether.
What's SHS?
 
^You mean Yugoslavia?

Austria keeps Tyrol in the CP looses scenario, Austria gains navel dominance over the Adriatic that threatens Italy, and in both Italy is treated like crap for it's non-involvement.
Unless the CP's win, that's unlikely. They'd be arguing from a position of strength. Their army and navy would be at full strength. They might take the South Tyrol, Triest, Dalmatia, the Dodecanese Islands and Lycia with the British and French being to weakened to bother stopping them.
 
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Yugoslavia was formed after the enlarged kingdom of serbia joined with the state SHS(Država Slovenaca,Hrvata i Srba).

It was a fairly short lived nation so its natural for many people to have never heard of it.

It could have been a viable nation provided italy didnt try to swallow it and serbia was to weak to take its territory.
 
Yugoslavia was formed after the enlarged kingdom of serbia joined with the state SHS(Država Slovenaca,Hrvata i Srba).

It was a fairly short lived nation so its natural for many people to have never heard of it.

It could have been a viable nation provided italy didnt try to swallow it and serbia was to weak to take its territory.
Thanks. I've learned something new.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
^You mean Yugoslavia?


Unless the CP's win, that's unlikely. They'd be arguing from a position of strength. Their army and navy would be They might take the South Tyrol, Triest, Dalmatia, the Dodecanese Islands and Lycia with the British and French being to weakened to bother stopping them.

I meant if CP win Austria get's navel control :eek: too late to change that now.

Oh well.
 
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Austria keeps Tyrol in the CP looses scenario, Austria gains navel dominance over the Adriatic that threatens Italy if CP win, and in both Italy is treated like crap for it's non-involvement.

Ehm Italy is the only European Great Power not being involved in the conflict...so is still fresh and not socially, economically and politically deeply hurt. In this scenario winner and loser maybe don't like Italy but they can't afford to be very noisy about it...at least for a while.

Regarding the conflict:

- Italy neutrality mean that the CP in general have a method to bypass the blockade, at least till a certain degree. Both France and Uk will not look kindly at a neutral that openly supply their enemies in great quantity and both have the military and economic power to make Italy life more hard. On the other hand Italy is not Netherlands or Norway, she can't be bullied so easily otherwise there is the chance that will ally with the CP and this will greatly damage the Entente.
In the end Italy will commerce with the CP but will be within certain limit, probably food and non military resources...at least in the open.

- A-H don't have a front where waste men and resources, so she can concentrate her effort towards Serbia and Russia, with more positive results of OTL or if she don't up the game for economic and social reason, at least the food and internal political situation will be better than OTL.

- Serbia is screwed, without Italy support in the evacuation of her army the casualities will be much much more.

- if some political agreement between the Entente and Rome is not found France will be forced to keep some division on the italian border.

- No Otranto barrage so A-H is not totally isolated

- France will continue to receive italian seasonal workers lessening in this manner any manpower problem and the UK will save money as she don't have to finance even the italian war effort.

- Switzerland will also have some advantage as now is not totally surrounded by warring nation and has a line of comunication and commerce through Italy and can diminish the mobilitation as the italian border don't need to be manned.
 
A neutral Italy has a much better economy and doesn't lose there best people in a pointless war that did nothing for them. They may even hold on to their colonies.
 
I meant if CP win Austria get's navel control :eek: too late to change that now.

Oh well.
I meant keeping South Tyrol. The Italians wanted it, because it would mean that their land borders were ringed by mountains. It would secure their borders. Could the Entente stop them? Sure. Would they? Probably not. Austria's positioned in a way that would make it hard for major power to intervene aside from defeated Germany.
 
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JAG88

Banned
Romania!

I doubt the Romanians would join without the historically besieged AH. There would be additional troops to counter Brusilov so that doesnt go as bad. With Romania neutral they keep supplying the CPs with ever increasing quantities of grain and oil and likely join the CPs in 1917 after the Kerensky offensive.

The Italians would try to make up for their desertion of the CPs by trying to provide a source of materials and manufactures, it could certainly assist them by providing railroad material.

A source of labor for the CPs.

Expect them to jump on France's back once Russia goes down the drain.
 
Post-war things will become interesting from the get-go.

Austria never was serious in giving up any territory, everybody knows it, even Albania was a strecht due to her strategic importance.
So after the conflict end things between Italy and Austria will become even more complicated, even because the italians already control south Albania.

In all probability after some diplomatic stonewalling Vienna will give up what agreed due to being tired of the war (and starting a conflict with the only fresh power is not a really good move, expecially with German support is not a given), after all there is the Magyar question and all the socio-economic and political trouble the war caused to resolve.
Naturally this move will not make hardliner like Conrad very happy, expecially with Romania still in all piece and eyeing Transylvania.

Romania will probably take the hint from Italy and remain neutral (maybe demanding/being offered Bessarabia for her trouble) and while this is good for the CP as mean a continued commerce with her and no Romanian front, on the other side IRC other sources indicated that at least initially the Romanian army was more hinder than help for the Russian.

Edit: Italy and A-H relationships was...complicated and the alliance at the time the war started was dead and both side knows it, hell Vienna basically give Rome a way out (plus agree/don't protested too much at Italy interpretation of the Treaty) so they don't need to compensate her for their expansion in the Balkans
 
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