WI Neutral Germany post WW2

[Wildlife]

What if the Soviets and the Western allies agree during or after WW2 to withdraw from their occupation of Germany by 1948 allowing Germany to be a single independent neutral nation (like Switzerland) with a military no to be larger that 600000 strong with 450000 being army

 

[Monk78]

What if the Soviets and the Western allies agree during or after WW2 to withdraw from their occupation of Germany by 1948 allowing Germany to be a single independent neutral nation (like Switzerland) with a military no to be larger that 600000 strong with 450000 being army

That’s a lot , such a germany can be a threat to Poland Czech etc
Maybe 100k , no nukes , coast guard navy and basic air defence ( luftwaffe with BAC lightening and maybe later Draken ?) truly peaceful nation only interested in promoting their culture , trade etc
But western allies wanted to fight the soviets to the last German so chances of that are essentially zero

 

[Jimbo808]

No I don't feel this could be agreed to; there was zero trust in Germany following the war I can't really see that happening.

 

[TDM]

NATO and the Warsaw Pact have too much vested interest in Germany to allow that. Plus long-term Neutrality (ala Switzerland) takes ongoing commitment from within the country it's not something that can really be enforced from outside, so there's also the trust issue.

 

[LordMartinax]

What if the Soviets and the Western allies agree during or after WW2 to withdraw from their occupation of Germany by 1948 allowing Germany to be a single independent neutral nation (like Switzerland) with a military no to be larger that 600000 strong with 450000 being army

I mean, this is basically the post-WW1 set-up, only this time, the Germans are geting a rather more sizeable army in the process. By doing this, the Western powers would have basically learned nothing, and merely put conditions in place allowing for round number 3.

The German army geting rebuilt in OTL was quite controversial, both East and West, as was the German reunification itself. Why would the victorious powers, that just lost millions of men puting the Germans down, now decide that immediate reunification, and strong rearmanent is a good idea?

Also, why would you just give up a valuable part of your sphere of influence? Both East and Western Germany were valuable parts of their respective pacts and spheres. Why just give up a valuable ally?

 

[HexWargamer]

No I don't feel this could be agreed to; there was zero trust in Germany following the war I can't really see that happening.

Agree totally .. if the USA refuses to occupy west Germany, the Soviets would ... no way would Stalin 'agree' to a 'neutral' Germany (neither would Churchill, but he would have to go along with what the Americans decided and is soon out of office anyway). The French would scream blue murder, but they would be in no position to face off against the USA (or Stalin) ...
It's almost ASB that Stalin even agrees to a 'multi-national occupation force' (rarther than a 'hard division') but even this, IMHO, would quickly condense out into east and the rest (just like Berlin i.e. a Soviet sector v's all the rest) == no way would he want the Red Army 'fratanising' with the American GI's, it might give them counter-revolutionary ideas ...