WI Netherlands keep Taiwan

Every action has a reaction. The Netherlands isn't just some small insiginificant isolated country. It is a key player in numerous wars and conflicts across Europe. The retention of Taiwan butterflies the Netherlands and their politics and priorities which in turn butterflies France. The French Revolution isn't guaranteed to happen. Analysis would need to be conducted to see how likely it would be to happen in roughly the same way.

But every single person in France at the time would be totally different from OTL. And that's just to the late 1700's nevermind WWI I.

It is possible that the Netherlands keeping Taiwan could ultimately have a massive effect on the rest of the world and result in every person in France being different from OTL. It is also possible that this would not happen, and that every person in France just happens to be the same as in OTL.

And going into the future:

If the Dutch keep Taiwan, it is possible that World War 2 would occur in the same timeframe as in OTL, for the same reasons, in the same location, and with the same leaders. It is also possible that, by 1939, this would not be the case, that every leader is different, that every country is different, that there isn't a war in that timeframe; it's even possible that there was a nuclear holocaust wiping out human civilization.

But, you know, it's also possible that this world coincidentally happens to be very similar to OTL.

And if it's possible that this world is coincidentally nearly the same as OTL, then I'm going to assume that that happened.
 
I think it's more likely that the island will end up speaking some sort of dutch-japanse-chinese creole than the actual dutch language. The population might be Eurasian, but I think it's inevitable it'll end up a lot more Asian than European, for geographic and demographic reasons.
Is a creole plausible? I mean, Indonesia didn't speak a creole.
I don't know for the XIXth century but at least til the XVIIIth century, people in Indonesia were more likely to speak a Malay-Portuguese creole than any kind of Dutch. Even the Dutch casados were speaking it
 
It is possible that the Netherlands keeping Taiwan could ultimately have a massive effect on the rest of the world and result in every person in France being different from OTL. It is also possible that this would not happen, and that every person in France just happens to be the same as in OTL.

And going into the future:

If the Dutch keep Taiwan, it is possible that World War 2 would occur in the same timeframe as in OTL, for the same reasons, in the same location, and with the same leaders. It is also possible that, by 1939, this would not be the case, that every leader is different, that every country is different, that there isn't a war in that timeframe; it's even possible that there was a nuclear holocaust wiping out human civilization.

But, you know, it's also possible that this world coincidentally happens to be very similar to OTL.

And if it's possible that this world is coincidentally nearly the same as OTL, then I'm going to assume that that happened.
It is the difference between possible and plausible.

Anyway it is incredibly lazy and renders everything you contribute largely meaningless. Keep doing it if you like but it doesn't look good.
 
It doesn't make sense that it would be the same, even if you believe in butterfly nets. Taiwan was a Japanese colony, right? a war with the Dutch would have triggered big changes.
 
It is the difference between possible and plausible.

Anyway it is incredibly lazy and renders everything you contribute largely meaningless. Keep doing it if you like but it doesn't look good.

Depends on the situation, really.

If you're writing a detailed timeline and want to explore how the world could change as a result of continued a Dutch presence in Taiwan, by all means do so.

If you want to write a brief history of a Dutch Taiwan, then it's best to assume that the rest of the world (apart from bits directly affected) is unchanged. There's a vast number of ways that the world could be different 300 years after a PoD (regardless of what that PoD is) and it's simply impossible to analyse them all.

I don't see how this is lazy; how else could you possibly answer the question?
 
Is a creole plausible? I mean, Indonesia didn't speak a creole.
Indonesia had a number of populations that were much more unified with several common languages and cultures and had much larger populations in the main islands than Taiwan at the time. Taiwan had numerous small tribes speaking upwards of twenty languages. The culture that develops in Taiwan would need some sort of lingua franca to communicate with each other.Whether or not it will be a creole, I can't say, but a creole seems likely.

2) A large Chinese population under foreign rule. Some probably become protestant, as in OTL. Unlike Indonesia, this is majority Chinese.
The Chinese didn't start settling the island in large numbers until the Dutch arrived. Most of the early Chinese settlers were laborers brought over by the Dutch themselves. The Taiwanese population in this scenario would probably be less Chinese than OTL.
 
Taiwan had numerous small tribes speaking upwards of twenty languages. The culture that develops in Taiwan would need some sort of lingua franca to communicate with each other.Whether or not it will be a creole, I can't say, but a creole seems likely.
Either Siraya-based or Middag (Northwestern Formosan)-based
 
We speak of Han and Dutch, but let's not forget of Aboriginals.

Through much of Chinese history, Taiwan was judged a piece of mud not worth occupying it, justifying it took the threat of a rump Ming loyalist state existing here for Qing forces to invade in 1680's.
Prior to that and Dutch presence, Han Chinese population was non existent (or so I understand). Han Chineses were brought in by Dutch as labor force for agriculture such as sugarcane or rice. Another feature of Han communities in Dutch Formosa was that this situation propelled the development of trade networks by Chinese merchants on the mainland Fujian, notably in Amoy.
But, speaking of Aboriginals, not speaking of the way they enforced their rule, the main cultural happenings were through Protestant missionaries they brought in. Missionaries effectively transcripted into latin script aboriginal language as part of the evangelization effort, and I tend to think that a lasting Dutch presence would have seen a better conservation of Aboriginal culture within the framework of Protestant christianity brought in by the Dutch. I'm unsure of the settlement patterns under the Qing IOTL, but I would think Dutch presence would mean less overwhelming Han population and stronger Aboriginal population, though they would be not necessarily the most populous of the two.
As for Dutch settlers, I don't know if the comparison with Indonesia is relevant. Formosa, before Dutch period, was a void: there was no previous state and political entities were relatively primitive. It's virtually a virgin land for them to settle in, no much national identity to rise later. Also, by its position, Formosa has the potential to become the Crown jewel of the Dutch empire, ideally placed for trade with China and Japan, with resources enough to enable some kind of barter trade with China (crops and mineral resources to trade with, a strategy I believe was initiated IOTL but stopped short by Koxinga invasion).
 
We speak of Han and Dutch, but let's not forget of Aboriginals.

Through much of Chinese history, Taiwan was judged a piece of mud not worth occupying it, justifying it took the threat of a rump Ming loyalist state existing here for Qing forces to invade in 1680's.
Prior to that and Dutch presence, Han Chinese population was non existent (or so I understand). Han Chineses were brought in by Dutch as labor force for agriculture such as sugarcane or rice. Another feature of Han communities in Dutch Formosa was that this situation propelled the development of trade networks by Chinese merchants on the mainland Fujian, notably in Amoy.
But, speaking of Aboriginals, not speaking of the way they enforced their rule, the main cultural happenings were through Protestant missionaries they brought in. Missionaries effectively transcripted into latin script aboriginal language as part of the evangelization effort, and I tend to think that a lasting Dutch presence would have seen a better conservation of Aboriginal culture within the framework of Protestant christianity brought in by the Dutch. I'm unsure of the settlement patterns under the Qing IOTL, but I would think Dutch presence would mean less overwhelming Han population and stronger Aboriginal population, though they would be not necessarily the most populous of the two.
As for Dutch settlers, I don't know if the comparison with Indonesia is relevant. Formosa, before Dutch period, was a void: there was no previous state and political entities were relatively primitive. It's virtually a virgin land for them to settle in, no much national identity to rise later. Also, by its position, Formosa has the potential to become the Crown jewel of the Dutch empire, ideally placed for trade with China and Japan, with resources enough to enable some kind of barter trade with China (crops and mineral resources to trade with, a strategy I believe was initiated IOTL but stopped short by Koxinga invasion).

I think that's some very good points.

We have several models of Dutch settlements.

New Netherlands, which didn't last long, but it had around 9000 settlers when it was conquered. The majority European immigrants.

Dutch Caribbean, a small Dutch class of landowners lording over vast number of slaves.

South Africa was pretty much virgin land, but it was marginal, and the colony was only established for strategic reasons. All in all the Afrikans are mostly descendant from around 1000 settlers.

East Indies, the descendants of the Dutch are the Indos. In the 17-18th the Dutch kept a permanent European population in the East Indies of around 25000, this was people who travelled from Europe and returned as they retired.

So we know the Dutch was able to transport large amount of people around the world, and they was willing to do so, if there was money to earn on it.

According to Wikipedia, Taiwan had less than 100.000 people in 1662 of which a quarter was Chinese brought in by the Dutch.

Taiwan would not fit into any of these model, it's pretty much a fifth model. Which mix the other models. The Dutch seem to have had 1800 people on the island in 1662, which was more or less 2% of the population. The question are what consequences would the Chinese rebellion have, would the Dutch stop importing Chinese to the sugar cane plantage, replacing them with other groups, I have suggested Japanese, but the Dutch could also import slaves from other places, Africa are likely to far away, but what about Malays or East Indians?
The Dutch population would likely keep rising too, but I think it's unlikely they will bring Dutch farmers in. So the Dutch will likely primarily be a urban population with the rural Dutch mostly being large land owners, their managers and these families.

The Dutch will likely keep treating the Aboriginal like they did in the start, useful allies against uprising from the peasants and slaves. This give a good reason to convert them, but also like in west Africa "marrying" native women, to create a mixed race class, which can interact between the two groups. I see little reason for the Dutch to use some Chinese dialect as a local lingua franca like they did with Malay and Portuguese in East Indies. In fact they have every reason to set up Dutch as lingua franca with Aboriginals, as it cut a potential connection with the Chinese as least in the short term. If they keep using Chinese peasants solely, they will likely keep speaking Chinese dialects. But if they begin to import other groups, we will likely see the rise of a Dutch creole.
 
Definitely a "fifth model".
In any way, a Dutch Formosa lasting into 20th century is, courtesy of its insular nature and virgin past, is going to be shaped by Dutch culture, Asian brand I mean. I would tend to think that it would go more likely the way of a dominion in the British way, with Dutch monarch as king or queen of Formosa, due to heavy cultural ties of the island to the Netherlands, instead of having it a mere part of China (Han Chineses would only be a plurality at best, counting on the other sides metis, aboriginals, Dutch and Europeans, possibly Malays and Javaneses).

The practice of hiring Han Chinese labor for agricultural works may be problematics, it remains nonetheless I think the less costly and more available labor at hand. I guess you would end up with some regulations and changes of policy, pending reinforcement of the colony's military, to accomodate the situation, along of course with diversification of the labor force with Malays and Javaneses. Anyway, I think the issue would disappear one way or another as with the Qing policy of isolationism and closure of ports and restriction of all foreign trade to Canton, plus restrictions on migration (I believe, though not sure, it was a Qing policy to forbide any Chinese from going abroad), so I guess the flow of workers from the continent would eventually end.
 
The problem with a lot of Dutch colonization is that after Niew Netherlands failed, they really lost their stomach for settler colonization, even in South Africa. I'd say that if you can just overall prevent Niew Netherlands from taking off, you can set up South Africa as a "success story" in colonization, leading to further settlement in Taiwan and Indonesia.
 
Top