WI Netherlands keep Taiwan
- Thread starter Gukpard
- Start date
Different from France and UK, the Netherlands didn't put much a effort into integrating their colonies (that's why indonesia don't speaks dutch for example), so would it really make such a difference?
They could make a substantial effort, though. Macau still speaks portuguese and a portuguese-derived creole as minority languages, for example.
Dutch colonial rule began in 1642, so Taiwan will have been a Dutch colony for over 300 yesrs. Expect dramatic cultural changes compared with OTL.
I imagine an outline of the history of Taiwan might go something like this:
Dutch control of the island is solidified by the 1700s- ish. The Qing Dynasty will eventually drop their territorial claim to Taiwan.
(White) Dutch people start colonization of the island, maybe in the more hospitable (by European standards) north. I can't imagine there being any actual slavery of native Taiwanese people, but they will definitely be poorer and seen as inferior by Europeans.
Dutch is the language of administration. The lack of a common language for the indigenous people leads to Dutch being used as a lingua franca. Over the next few hundred years (1700-1900), as the Dutch retain firm control of the island and knowledge of the Dutch language is necessary, indigenous languages slowly die out. Comparable situations: Brazil, Mexico?
After World War 2, the Republic of China obviously won't be able to flee to Taiwan as in OTL. They'll probably flee to Hainan instead, with TTL Hainan serving a similar role as OTL Taiwan.
By the time of independence in the 1970s, Taiwan has maybe 10% of its population genetically European, 20% mixed-race, and 70% native Chinese/Taiwanese. The native people had been oppressed for most of the duration of colonial rule, but this situation started to improve post-WW2.
The shared experience of surviving Japanese occupation during WW2 may contribute towards the development of a Taiwanese national identity for everyone regardless of ethnicity.
Taiwan today will be a developed country, and retain a close friendship with the Netherlands.
I imagine an outline of the history of Taiwan might go something like this:
Dutch control of the island is solidified by the 1700s- ish. The Qing Dynasty will eventually drop their territorial claim to Taiwan.
(White) Dutch people start colonization of the island, maybe in the more hospitable (by European standards) north. I can't imagine there being any actual slavery of native Taiwanese people, but they will definitely be poorer and seen as inferior by Europeans.
Dutch is the language of administration. The lack of a common language for the indigenous people leads to Dutch being used as a lingua franca. Over the next few hundred years (1700-1900), as the Dutch retain firm control of the island and knowledge of the Dutch language is necessary, indigenous languages slowly die out. Comparable situations: Brazil, Mexico?
After World War 2, the Republic of China obviously won't be able to flee to Taiwan as in OTL. They'll probably flee to Hainan instead, with TTL Hainan serving a similar role as OTL Taiwan.
By the time of independence in the 1970s, Taiwan has maybe 10% of its population genetically European, 20% mixed-race, and 70% native Chinese/Taiwanese. The native people had been oppressed for most of the duration of colonial rule, but this situation started to improve post-WW2.
The shared experience of surviving Japanese occupation during WW2 may contribute towards the development of a Taiwanese national identity for everyone regardless of ethnicity.
Taiwan today will be a developed country, and retain a close friendship with the Netherlands.
Actually the people were revolting before the Dutch left.
(P.S.I'm new here)
(P.S.I'm new here)
This will be a low butterfly analyse. I expect Europe to be mostly unaffected by this.
Well I doubt we will see significant settlement at least not early. The Dutch will likely only control a limited amount of the island until the 19th century with most of the island being under local tribal groups. We will see little settlement early on, but we will likely see the rice of a mix raced population. The island will likely stay tin populated until the Dutch conquer it all in the 19th century. We may see some influx of Japanese or Chinese settlers, but I think the Dutch will prefer Japanese so close to China. These will likely mix with the Dutch and the natives and pretty much become Christians. The lack of Islam will likely mean that even relative ineffective converters like the Calvinists will likely have converted a significant amount of the natives.
As the 19th Century comes the Dutch conquer the entire islands, at this point we also see the influx of a greater European population, while the Eurasian population also expands. I have no idea of the population final size, but as the climate are more frindly to Europeans than Indonesia, we likely talk about a significant part of the population. The population are also mostly converted to Christianity over the 19th century. I think we may see Taiwan being populated by a mostly Dutch speaking Calvinist mixed Eurasian population.
The Dutch control over Taiwan will likely change Japanese history, I'm not sure by how much, but It will limit the Japanese potential to expand to the south west. Maybe it will push Japan into a war with Russia earlier.
Well I doubt we will see significant settlement at least not early. The Dutch will likely only control a limited amount of the island until the 19th century with most of the island being under local tribal groups. We will see little settlement early on, but we will likely see the rice of a mix raced population. The island will likely stay tin populated until the Dutch conquer it all in the 19th century. We may see some influx of Japanese or Chinese settlers, but I think the Dutch will prefer Japanese so close to China. These will likely mix with the Dutch and the natives and pretty much become Christians. The lack of Islam will likely mean that even relative ineffective converters like the Calvinists will likely have converted a significant amount of the natives.
As the 19th Century comes the Dutch conquer the entire islands, at this point we also see the influx of a greater European population, while the Eurasian population also expands. I have no idea of the population final size, but as the climate are more frindly to Europeans than Indonesia, we likely talk about a significant part of the population. The population are also mostly converted to Christianity over the 19th century. I think we may see Taiwan being populated by a mostly Dutch speaking Calvinist mixed Eurasian population.
The Dutch control over Taiwan will likely change Japanese history, I'm not sure by how much, but It will limit the Japanese potential to expand to the south west. Maybe it will push Japan into a war with Russia earlier.
I think it's more likely that the island will end up speaking some sort of dutch-japanse-chinese creole than the actual dutch language. The population might be Eurasian, but I think it's inevitable it'll end up a lot more Asian than European, for geographic and demographic reasons.
Couldn't Japan simply take Taiwan from the Dutch? They wouldn't be able to put up much of a fight unless another European country helped them...
Couldn't Japan simply take Taiwan from the Dutch? They wouldn't be able to put up much of a fight unless another European country helped them...
My attitude towards butterflies is "if something that isn't a focus of the timeline could go the same way as in OTL, then it did". Makes analysis much easier.
Why?
Some things have to change- for example, if Taiwan is Dutch, then it will obviously affect Japanese efforts to expand its territory circa 1900.
On the other hand, Taiwan remaining Dutch does not have to affect, for example, the French Revolution. Sure, there could be large effects on French politics as a result of the PoD– but this does not have to be the case. Insisting on pretty much every world event being different as a direct result of the PoD is just silly and distracting in my opinion.
Faeelin
Banned
Let's think about this. Some obvious effects:
1) No rogue Ming state on the southern Chinese coast to oppose the Qing; so maybe earlier efforts to lift ties on foreign trade?
2) A large Chinese population under foreign rule. Some probably become protestant, as in OTL. Unlike Indonesia, this is majority Chinese.
3) Taiwan becomes a huge sugar colony, although it was for the Qing in OTL. So maybe no real change.
I'm not sure why the Dutch would prefer the Japanese, or how the Japanese get permission to leave Japan to settle a Dutch colony.
Can the Dutch run a colony of a few hundred thousand Chinese immigrants? With no butterflies on Chinese history? Seems odd.
Every action has a reaction. The Netherlands isn't just some small insiginificant isolated country. It is a key player in numerous wars and conflicts across Europe. The retention of Taiwan butterflies the Netherlands and their politics and priorities which in turn butterflies France. The French Revolution isn't guaranteed to happen. Analysis would need to be conducted to see how likely it would be to happen in roughly the same way.
But every single person in France at the time would be totally different from OTL. And that's just to the late 1700's nevermind WWI I.
Would the island retain the name 'Formosa' under Dutch rule?
Also, butterflies will be relevant, especially in East Asia. In Europe, whether the lives of the masses will be altered in any way is doubtful, though in Holland and the governments of other colonial powers the changes are likely to make a difference.
Also, butterflies will be relevant, especially in East Asia. In Europe, whether the lives of the masses will be altered in any way is doubtful, though in Holland and the governments of other colonial powers the changes are likely to make a difference.