What if Neil Kinnock and the Labour Party won the 1992 UK election? I made some alternate results, using Electoral Calculus, producing only a small, but ultimately critical, swing from the Conservatives to labour and the LibDems.
1992 UK election
Neil Kinnock-Labour: 302+73 36.4%
John Major-Conservative: 299-77 39.4%
Paddy Ashdown-LibDem: 26+4 18.3%
651 seats
326 for majority

The most relevant parallel is the February 1974 UK election, in which Labour also lost the popular vote but won a bare minority government. This 1992 is essentially that on steroids. Labour forms a government with LibDem support, either a coalition or minority with confidence and supply, and they have a bare 5-seat majority.

What PoD could lead to this result? What would be the effects of this result? Labour would likely take the blame for the economic problems of the 1990s and Black Wednesday. In opposition, the Tories could revive themselves? Who would they elect as leader to replace John Major? Would Labour last in government until the 1997 election, or would there be an earlier election? How would Kinnock do as PM? How would the next election go(probably a Tory win) and what would be the effects? What would be the longer term impact on UK politics? What if?
 
If Labour is in power for Black Wednesday and the crisis occurs as per OTL, I see two consequences.

1. Labour's reputation for poor economic managers from the mid-late 70's is compounded. The Tories return to office in 1997 or before and stay in office until the GFC with Thatcherism remaining their guiding ideology.

This may result in worse GFC with more deregulation and wider inequality under ATL Tories.

2. The events of Black Wednesday which broke the UK's attempt to join the European Monetary system spur the Conservative Party to be more eurosceptic earlier. Given the loss of Government in 1992 more of the Europhile ministers move on facilitating the earlier shift to euroscepticism in the Tories.

This may result in an earlier EU exit for the UK or a less EU powers/integration under UK pressure.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Who would be the next Tory leader?
Heseltine.

Regarding the scenario itself, Black Wednesday hitting Britain will depend on if Britain stuck to the ERM, which Major did stubbornly and against the wishes of his Chancellor. I'm not sure what John Smith's views were at the time, but if he heeds the warnings that Major ignored, then it's possible that Black Wednesday will be greatly subdued in comparison to OTL.

In the scenario you've sketched however, there will more than likely be a snap election. A five seat majority (or ten seat majority if you don't count abstaining Irish Republicans and the Speaker) even with coalition will be too uncomfortable for Kinnock, who lived through the October '74 Parliament. That's a majority that will make governance difficult, especially in a coalition. If Black Wednesday is avoided or greatly subdued, then Kinnock can go to the country by 1994.
 
There used to be an excellent TL 'Principle in Power', but it disappeared, I don't know what happened to it. Pity.

Aside from that, there's only been a handful of queries that petered out....
 
Major could well stay on as Tory leader with a result like that, especially if another election was expected shortly.
I could see Major surviving much the way May is presently, as a roadblock set by one wing of the party against another. If the Thatcherites feel he's either really one of them now or at least a useful idiot, they'd much rather it was him than Heseltine and the final long-game revenge of the wets.
 
Top