WI: NDP wins 2011 canadian election?

What if the NDP had won in 2011? How would the world react if Jack Layton died in office? Who would the NDP chose to be the next prime minister?
 
Succession gets complicated because Layton had 2 deputy leaders- Libby Davies and Tom Mulcair. When Layton takes his leave of absence then his deputy becomes Acting PM. Upon his death they get temporarily sworn in until a leadership race can be held. It will have to be very quick, before Xmas break. Either that or Layton notifies the GG to call on someone who promises not to run for leadership and have them sworn in as acting PM. That person will probably not legislate anything major during their tenure or do much except run the government. Parliament might be prorogued after the budget is passed in June because legally they aren't obligated to do anything else.

Of course this all assumes an NDP majority, minority gets trickier even though the opposition parties will avoid any confidence motions out of respect for Layton.

Once the new NDP leader is chosen then that person gets sworn in as permanent PM and things resume as normal. Mulcair is still the favourite but his chances of winning are reduced slightly. On one hand he didn't overtake Topp till the New Year IOTL, on the other ITTL they'll probably want someone with governing experience and the only one who fits that bill is Mulcair.

For the other parties, Harper resigns as leader immediately and probably from Parliament, he's not going to stick around after losing government. Jason Kenney is his likely successor as Tory leader. Liberals probably pick Rae as per OTL, the other choice is Garneau who wouldn't do as well as Rae did IOTL in stabilizing things.
 
Considering that making it to official opposition was mind boggling, the idea of them WINNING is... really tough, shall we say. Was Stephen Harper caught on tape being bribed by the Chinese? No thats not enough. I really, really cant imagine a pod that would let the NDP actually win. The next election? Sure. Not that one.
 
Considering that making it to official opposition was mind boggling, the idea of them WINNING is... really tough, shall we say. Was Stephen Harper caught on tape being bribed by the Chinese? No thats not enough. I really, really cant imagine a pod that would let the NDP actually win. The next election? Sure. Not that one.
Actually as I recall, the NDP actually came rather close to coming in first. The only other party besides the conservatives to break a 100 seats.
 
Actually as I recall, the NDP actually came rather close to coming in first. The only other party besides the conservatives to break a 100 seats.
That's a bizarre metric. They broke 100 seats, yes, but they're still 50-some seats away from a majority, and 30-to-40 away from what the Tories had been governing with prior. They were nowhere near close to coming in first.

Like Dathi, I can't see this happening without some major scandal(s) coming out, that damage both the Cons and the Libs. Going from perennial third-party to majority government overnight is just impossible, especially when one realises that— outside of Quebec— the NDP only picked up 9 seats.

If you want the NDP in office after 2011, the way to do it would be to stop the Liberal's collapse and keep the Conservatives with a plurality, meaning an NDP-Liberal combination would have a majority of seats. But even then a coalition (or even just a confidence-and-supply deal) is unlikely; the Liberals almost certainly wouldn't agree to be the junior partner in that, and Harper would cry foul and bring back the "coup" rhetoric from the last time a coalition was mentioned.
 
That's a bizarre metric. They broke 100 seats, yes, but they're still 50-some seats away from a majority, and 30-to-40 away from what the Tories had been governing with prior. They were nowhere near close to coming in first.

Like Dathi, I can't see this happening without some major scandal(s) coming out, that damage both the Cons and the Libs. Going from perennial third-party to majority government overnight is just impossible, especially when one realises that— outside of Quebec— the NDP only picked up 9 seats.

If you want the NDP in office after 2011, the way to do it would be to stop the Liberal's collapse and keep the Conservatives with a plurality, meaning an NDP-Liberal combination would have a majority of seats. But even then a coalition (or even just a confidence-and-supply deal) is unlikely; the Liberals almost certainly wouldn't agree to be the junior partner in that, and Harper would cry foul and bring back the "coup" rhetoric from the last time a coalition was mentioned.

Hmm... if the tories had 40% of the seats, the ndp 32% and the liberals 28%, which would be very unlikely but, i suppose theoretically possible, you might get an ndp led coalition. And the tories clearly couldnt rule on their own...

Doesnt exactly count as 'winning', in my books, though.
 
Alberta gets out of dodge and bolts from confederation with Saskatchewan not too far behind. :p
 
I'm with RGB here.

Well, Quebec only has so many seats, Ontario is the next big challenge. BC may go more left steadily but we don't have enough seats here.

There was no upsurge in Ontario. And the Grits still didn't believe then what happened to them could happen to them.
 
Well, Quebec only has so many seats, Ontario is the next big challenge. BC may go more left steadily but we don't have enough seats here.

There was no upsurge in Ontario. And the Grits still didn't believe then what happened to them could happen to them.

Heh. Ill bet theres STILL a bunch of Grits that dont believe it could (have) happen(ed).

I still boggle at the thought that SK doesnt elect ANY NDP any more. You know, the place with the first socialist government on the continent? And the idea that the NDP won so big with no sk seats. I saw the election map and wondered which alternate timeline id been transported too.
 
Hmm... if the tories had 40% of the seats, the ndp 32% and the liberals 28%, which would be very unlikely but, i suppose theoretically possible, you might get an ndp led coalition. And the tories clearly couldnt rule on their own...

Doesnt exactly count as 'winning', in my books, though.

Yeah, I wouldn't call it "winning", either, but it's the only way I can see to get the NDP into office in 2011.

I think a full coalition is off the table though, I really cannot see the Liberals, the "Natural Governing Party" and government-in-waiting for five years, to accept the role of junior partner in a coalition. They're too proud/stubborn (pick one :p) for that. Confidence-and-supply is possible, but still unlikely, and if the NDP are governing without even a plurality of seats (technically)... hoo boy, that would get ugly.

Could be an interesting scenario, though. Would people accept the odd situation if it's Layton in charge? He was very personally popular...
 
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