WI Nazis lose in 1940-1

Suppose luck went differently. I believe that is possible that Germany could have been fought to a standstil and eventually be defeated.

Query what happens to Soviet occupied Poland?

Also what happens to Germany and in fact Austria
 

Deleted member 94680

An East Communist/West Nationalist Poland split and a ‘restored’ single Austria I suppose.
 
I figure it depends on how the Soviets play the situation. Say we put the turning point of the war at Moscow in 1941 (instead of Stalingrad or arguably Kursk in '42/'43) and the Red Army pursues the Nazis across Eastern Europe like IOTL, things could get a bit...hairy for the rest of the continent. The Soviets were hellbent on destroying the fascist Axis, and without the western Allied powers opening a second front with Overlord/D-Day or Operation Husky (Italy), they'd have no reason to stop their campaign in central Germany. You might very well see the Red Army rolling up to the English Channel, or swinging south to bring the fight against fascist Italy. Or both. And then there's the question of Spain, which I'm not particularly knowledgeable on to be honest, but given the prominent role of Communists in the Civil War, it's entirely possible Franco would be on the hit list too.

Once the war is over? I doubt the Soviets would have the desire or manpower to occupy most of Europe (Japan will still be a thorn in their side)...but Soviet-backed Communist governments would probably spring up all over the continent, given what happened IOTL shortly before and after WWII. Greece and Italy had sizable Communist movements of their own who likely become dominant in this scenario. If Franco gets it, Spain probably goes that way as well. Don't know enough about the politics of the rest (France/Belgium/Denmark/Netherlands) to really speculate on their paths. Things would then of course get very tense with the UK and US, neither of whom were exactly fond of socialist-communist ideology or Stalin's expansionism. I'm doubtful that either would actually to directly attack Soviet Europe, but it'd make a very interesting Cold War situation.

And of course there's the Pacific Theatre as well, which I honestly don't know enough about in terms of Soviet involvement to comment on, but as a wild guess, things go very badly for Japan and probably Nationalist China too.
 
I think it really depends on where and when they are defeated, in 1940 (so in France?) or in 1941 (the USSR) and also how badly they are defeated i.e have the German invasion beaten off is one thing following on and defeating the Germans at home having defeated it's invading armies is another. (although I think France will be keen to given any opportunity at all)

So if it's France one assumes the German attack is failure the German army is defeated and pushed back into Germany and then quickly defeated there. I guess the USSR is going to come to some sort of arrangement where they keep the half of Poland even if its called something like a Protected zone or some such. Because France and the UK are going to dealing with what to do with Germany and not in a real position to also push the USSR out of Poland. Especially as once the German attack is that quickly beaten in France you can guarantee that the USSR are going to move against German occupied Poland

I suspect the allies will attempt to compensate Poland with chunks of east German territory (I expect Czechoslovakia will get something as well) and maybe some kind of guaranteed de-militarised zone in central Poland . No one will be happy with this but I think Poland will have to accept that it as as good as it's going to get*.


What happens to Germany? Treaty of Versailles will look like a slap on the wrist compared to what happens now, a revitalised and belligerent France will be arguing that basically no you can't trust Germany or give them an inch and the original treaty was either too weak and/or too weakly enforced. Austria, will probably get a treaty of Versailles light depending on how contrite they are and how quickly they play the "bigger boys made me do it" card.


If its 1941 and the USSR beats the Germans in the field in western Russia or even Russian occupied Poland than frankly their going to take all of Poland even if they don't occupy Germany and really there's not very much France and the UK are going to be able to do about it since even if they get very quickly into gear and are attacking Germany from the west they're on the wrong side of Germany, still have to work out what to do with Germany and the USSR has just kind of won the war for them after they had been either occupied of chased off the continent.


Either way, The USSR will now be perceived as an active problem and I think a cold war will start with Eastern Poland re-placing eastern Germany. I expect Finland wills start to see a lot of international interest and help, and the far east could get interesting


*At the risk of sounding harsh Poland is just in an awful starting position here sounded by enemies and all it's friends are very far away
 
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The war in the Pacific might also be butter-
flied away? (After all, one reason- & I think
it was a very powerful one- that Japan struck
in 1941 IOTL was that it felt that with WWII
raging in Europe, the big Western Powers
in the Pacific were in the position of a man
who had one hand tied behind his back, &
were thus ripe for the picking).
 
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