WI: Nazi Germany stops after Czechoslovakia, never invading Poland, what does the Soviet Union do?

And part of Slovakia was ceded to Hungary.

And Poland got a small piece of Bohemia. (Teschen.)
In 1938 shortly after Munich.

Poland also demmanded and at the end got small teritories in Slovakia - areas of Kysuce, Orava and Spis. There were short exchange of dore between Polish army and Czechoslovak army in Kysuce area - 2 Czechoslovaks died and at least 1 Polish soldier and 1 WIA. In High Tatras - Spis area 1 Polish Officer KIA and one NCO WIA. Polish demand on Slovak territory virtually shot down strong pro Polish wing in Hlinka's People Party. And we need to look at Slovaks taking part on September campaign also from this side.

In March 1939 there was short war between new created Slovak republic and Hungary when Hungary attacked in March 23. First air attack on the town in Eastern Europe occured when Hungarian Air Force attacked Slovak town Spiska Nova Ves. 1 Hungarian flight by mistake attacked Hungarian town Roznava, just incorporated back into Hungary after Vienna agreement 1938.
 
My point was not that the Anschluß was in 1939 but it had already occurred by then. Likewise, my point of Czechoslovakia was not that Germany occupied 100% of the territory at that time, but that it controlled all of it - the Slovakian state existed at the sufferance of the Germans and came in to being because they allowed it. Similarly the small bits that Hungary and Poland took happened because the Germans didn't care and allowed it.

Some of the conflicts discussed here are typical of the various issues that came up amongst German "allies" during the war - Hungary vs Romania over lines in Transylvania was one of the most contentious. The Germans tamped these down during the war, basically putting off resolution until after victory. In the scenario here, whatever resolutions of these territorial conflicts were decided on by the Germans would end up be accepted, however reluctantly, by the states of Central/Eastern Europe. None of them had the military power to challenge Germany OTL and less so ITTL. None of them would turn to the USSR for military support except in the most desperate circumstances, and the British/French could offer little more than moral support.

The reality is that in 1939, and in 2017 OTL there is no set of national borders that would be satisfactory to the countries involved. Between 1939 and 2017 there has been a good bit of movement of peoples so that the polka dot mix of ethnicities of 1939 is less in 2017 due to both voluntary and involuntary population movements, forced "majorityization" of some ethnic minorities, and out and out killings. On top of that the national/ethnic boundaries have fluctuated a good deal over the last 500 years, and each group tends to claim the largest boundary during that time as their "historic" patrimony. The long and short of this is that any imposed solution is going to leave some level of resentment, but power realities will force acceptance.
 
Sure. You are saying that Hitler does OTL. After all, what's the purpose of arming if you never get to use the arms. Indeed, I agree, the only way for Germany to stop after the dismemberment of Czechoslovakia is by removing Hitler.

That said, if the German soaring public debt and the shortage of valuable foreign currency don't matter, why was your last post an attempt at pushing them under the carpet? If their existence doesn't matter, why argue about them?


because this is a problem that has a number of solutions depending on which way you wish to go. Even on the OTL it was Hitler's paranoia after Munich that precipitated the crisis that lead to Polish invasion. Remove that variable and doors open.

For example the WEST WALL cost 3.5 billion RM ,from 1934-1940 .However 2 billion of this was invested in a crash program - 20 months prior to the war- because Hitler demanded that they be completed buy then. Likewise another 1.5 billion was crash spent to complete barracks for 20 more infantry divisions that Hitler demanded be crash built & completed by then. Even the building of those 20 infantry divisions [which were not planned for originally] cost at least 1.5 to 2 billion RM.

If the war is to be started in 1940/42 these payments could be spread out over a longer time, thus less budget shortfalls.

i'm sure there are other examples.
 
So what about Uncle Joe spinning the occupation of half of Poland as 'Protecting' it from the horrible Fascists, saving their Slavic Cousins east of the Bug and Vistula?

OTL the Poles ordered their troops not to engage the USSR unless necessary
 
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So what about Uncle Joe spinning the occupation of half of Poland as 'Protecting' it from the horrible Fascists, saving their Slavic Cousins east of the Bug and Vistula?

OTL the Poles ordered their troops not to engage the USSR unless necessary
He wouldn't move. Same thing as in 1938 when he was waiting for Poles to attack Czechoslovakia. They didn't he disn't move. Situation was not right.
 
So what about Uncle Joe spinning the occupation of half of Poland as 'Protecting' it from the horrible Fascists, saving their Slavic Cousins east of the Bug and Vistula?

OTL the Poles ordered their troops not to engage the USSR unless necessary

Yeah, because they were already being cut to ribbons by the Germans, and had the last sliver of hope that the Germans and Soviets would just start firing on each other at sight.

If the Germans don't attack, then the Poles have their "East" deployment plan and will use it. The best of the Polish fixed defenses were in the East. The Wojska's depots and barracks were in the East. Poland's Eastern provinces were the less populated and least important industrially speaking. There would be no Western pressure not to mobilize.
 
If the war is to be started in 1940/42 these payments could be spread out over a longer time, thus less budget shortfalls.

Then you are turning the thread from "Hitler never invades Poland" to "Hitler plans to go to war later".

Yes, you are right that a slower pace of armament might be possible. The problem with that isn't what I mentioned, but the fact that by the time Germany has done its deed to Czechoslovakia, nobody in Europe believes Hitler even when he says that the sun sets in the West. Everybody is rearming, from the Belgians to the Soviets. Germany is ahead because they started first, and the others are behind on the curve. If Germany slows down, the others catch up. And they won't slow down in turn, because they don't trust Hitler.
By 1942, T-34s are phasing out T-26s, and KVs are phasing out T-28s. The French have reformed their armor units. The Poles have bought French tanks and fighters and are fielding three or four mechanised cavalry brigades. The Belgians have tanks. The British have revamped their destroyer flotillas and replaced the older bomber models. And so on and so forth.

There was a reason if Hitler was in a hurry, and it was practical, not paranoid.
 
Hitler was paranoid and rushing into war prematurely was Germanys undoing.

While he may have claimed to have spent 25 billion RM rebuilding Nazi armament factories , the evidence is lacking. One source I was reading put the figure at 15 billion RM , suggesting 10 billion was redirected else were and could have been used to balance the books if needed.

As It was those European rearming counties that were buying Nazi weapons when they could- and were making Germany the largest seller of planes in world. Historically that amounted to > 1/3 billion RM , prewar- which could have doubled had RLM let them.


IF the demand was that extreme , the Nazi could have demanded gold in return to balance off trade deficit's . Germany was doing this with Sweden who saw Nazi supply of fertilizer coke & coal as essential as Germany saw Swedish shipments of iron ore etc.

What Germany needed was to hammer out economic/military cooperation through out Europe in an anti Stalinist defensive pack.

Either way it would be speeding up Nazi rearmament/expansion.
 
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Hitler was paranoid and rushing into war prematurely was Germanys undoing.

He certainly was paranoid but I do notice that while you reply to my post, you do not actually reply to the issue I raised. Slowing down the preparations might very well be detrimental to Germany's chances once war begins, because the others will be better off.

As It was those European rearming counties that were buying Nazi weapons when they could- and were making Germany the largest seller of planes in world. Historically that amounted to > 1/3 billion RM , prewar- which could have doubled had RLM let them.

Er.
On the one hand, you want Germany to keep rearming as per OTL. That means, among other things, building aircraft for the damn Luftwaffe.
Then you also claim that the solution is to sell those aircraft abroad.
Don't you see there is a problem there?

What Germany needed was to hammer out economic/military cooperation through out Europe in an anti Stalinist defensive pack.

It seems you think they didn't try to.

The Romanians were a likely candidate, and they ran away from the German offer as fast as they could; they accepted it extremely unwillingly later, because they had no other choice by then. But before the defeat of France, no way.
The Poles were courted for months if not years. No way.
The Slovakians were another people with no choice, and they were in - for what they were worth (a net loss).
The Hungarians preferred neutrality until the scale was tipped by war. Before the war - extremely unlikely.
The Finns: no way short of the Winter War motivating them, and I hope we don't need to explain that.
Who else?

Germany was doing this with Sweden who saw Nazi supply of fertilizer coke & coal as essential as Germany saw Swedish shipments of iron ore etc.

Er. Sweden was granting Germany commercial credits all the way to 1942, and those credits were then balanced by the Swedish imports you mention. In other words, up to 1942 they were going by barter, not by gold or by any valuable foreign currency. Exactly the same as other late-peace, early-war-years German trade, for instance that with the Soviet Union, and all because of the usual problem, no acceptable currency.
Then yes, the Swedes grew wary of all of this and demanded gold. And the Germans paid in gold - including a significant proportion of the Dutch and Belgian gold reserves, smelted and restamped to hide the provenance of the gold. But that gold is of course unavailable without war.
So, sorry, no. Doesn't work.
 
don't cherry pick posts its too distracting taking things out of context.

BY this time every one knew that aircraft only last so long , less than a year, so its the annual war production that counts, NOT HOW MANY YOU ACCUMULATE. The actual sales numbers were tiny ....1527 over 1937-39 of which less than 1/4 were modern combat and over 1/2 of those were useless JU-86. Doubling these sales allows you to unload the less effective models like JU-86 and redress some of the sales imbalance.

As for Sweden, the paper I read indicated the Sweds had little choice in the matter and cost during actual wartime don't really matter anyway since Hitler just ran up the debit. In fact it appears to have work well enough.

http://www.helsinki.fi/iehc2006/papers3/Hedberg.pdf


As for anti Stalinist pack. I never new they made such an effort. Do you have a source?
 
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