WI: Nazi Germany stops after Czechoslovakia, never invading Poland, what does the Soviet Union do?

For whatever reason Nazi Germany stops its expansionist movements after April 1939, they never sign a pact with Russia, they don't invade Poland.

How would the Soviet Union and the rest of the world react to this? What happens to Japan, who do they ally with? Do the Soviets take all of Poland?
 
I guess Soviets will be sitting on their side of border and get again more onvolved in China. Maybe Stalin will be banging his head against wall for not pushing Czechoslovaks more, sending them at least some aircrafts. OTL Soviets never answered question of Czechoslovak air force commander about possibility of sending at least Aircrafts.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
For whatever reason Nazi Germany stops its expansionist movements after April 1939, they never sign a pact with Russia, they don't invade Poland.

How would the Soviet Union and the rest of the world react to this? What happens to Japan, who do they ally with? Do the Soviets take all of Poland?
Well, that would change the outlooks for an agreement with the wallies (negotiated the same time as the Molotov-Ribbentrop-pact) much in favor for such.
Though most likly it would still not "fullfill" all of Stalins wishes, in his eyes possible "better than nothing". But I doubt, that the wallies would agree on a similar demarcation on "spheres of interest".

... at least not in Europe ...
 
Hitler likely died in one of the many assassination attempts made on his life. His successor is probably a moderate if war is averted so a peaceful solution with Poland was reached. The economic relationship between Germany and the Soviets continue. This also means Germany and China remain allies. The incredible distrust the Soviets had for the West is gone here without the horrors of WWII so there is unlikely any proxy wars around the globe. Likewise the Soviet population and infrastructure isn't thoroughly wrecked with the issues they created. Stalin continues his annual purges, the Red Army will remain gutted (commissars are still around, good officers are not rehabilitated as no war removes any reason to focus on competency over political loyalty, and doctrine does not evolve), and Eastern Europe does not suffer several generations of moribund economics. The Soviet economy likely is better without the need for subsidizing allies, fighting various wars, creating and upkeeping a massive nuclear stockpile, or fielding occupying forces/keeping a large army. When Stalin goes down, the Soviets likely liberalize (no more iron fisted dictators!), Germany serves as their doorway to the West, and the Soviets become an economic powerhouse with it's oil, gas, and other mineral deposits.
 
WIth a "Hitler chokes on a chicken bone and dies" POD, the OP is possible. Here are the butterflies:

-Goering takes power and is more conciliatory. Navy and army will always say they are not ready for war. Goering won't give in to west over Czecks because its Hitler's last coup, it is a source of national pride. It would betray the Fueher's legacy.
-Poland becomes a Nazi satellite. The same is true of the Baltic states, Hungary, and Romania. The more the USSR builds up the more these states rely on Germany.
-After a couple years of "sane Nazis" France and Britain don't stop their military build ups, but probably open up for talks for an anti-soviet alliance.
-Japan ironically remains a power as French Indochina never draws Japan into war with the US. Japan joins this alliance to protect their interests against the USSR.
-USA builds up, but otherwise remains neutral as the western Europeans-Japanese power bloc is very powerful, as is USSR without Barbarossa, and picking a side makes either too strong.

We have a multi-polar cold war with shifting alliances...a 1984 like scenario but a lot more confusing and with a better standard of living. We are unlikely to see war to initiate. Britain or Germany might become the first nation with the bomb, but these will likely be retained as deterrents along with chemical and bio weapons.

I actually do not see WW2 happening in this time line. IOTL, it took maniacs under the right circumstances to go to war. Japan will remain the only maniacs and their war will be contained to China which they will eventually not have the resources to continue. In the modern day we would have a richer, more heavily armed world. The USSR will collapse (more likely internally reform), but with a larger Russian population they will probably retain the old republics. Germany will no longer be Nazi, but they will be the world's third largest economy, behind Japan and USA. Britain and France will likely maintain empires as without WW2 the West has the resources and the subtle cruelty to prevent third world liberation movements. Probably butterflies away militant Islam, which is interesting. Birth rates in the west decline but not as precipitously...WW2 was a mind-f**k for everyone. Culture is not the same today without WW2. Probably delays sexual revolution a little bit and things like the counter-culture.

The biggest winner in all of this is the USA. Ironically, the US avoids its overseas adventurism as France, Japan, USSR, and Britain will be doing the brunt of it. Sure, USA will help here or there, but no big losers like Vietnam. Plus, with a stronger economy and slightly less poverty, USA maintains a stronger industrial base today, may have a trade surplus (as the USA had in 1991) without the ascendance of China (which is butterflied away.)

Japan is a real wildcard. THey have Manchuria, Taiwan, and Korea...probably a population of 300,000,000. They will invent lean production first and without WW2, might be an ATL China in terms of export power. So, they might be the big winners...presuming they can culturally assimilate their captive populations which in some ways is not unthinkable considering the rest of Asia will be as poor as heck, there will be some pride in being part of the Japanese economic sphere.
 
Japan will be wanting to wrap up the China Incident in 1940-41. That would aggravate tensions between France, Britain & Japan, as the KMT government would still be drawing imports via the Red River basin & Burma. Wonder if Japan would attempt to bully the French into closing the port of Haiphong to Chinese arms imports? If the Europeans still occupy their Concessions in mainland China those will become a increasing source of tension. Does the Reynaud government 'negotiate' & throw the KMT under the bus, or call out the Japanese ?
 

Deleted member 1487

For whatever reason Nazi Germany stops its expansionist movements after April 1939, they never sign a pact with Russia, they don't invade Poland.

How would the Soviet Union and the rest of the world react to this? What happens to Japan, who do they ally with? Do the Soviets take all of Poland?
Nothing? New status quo. Does Germany stop rearming and transition to an export economy? If they don't they're in serious trouble; if they do, they own central europe and are an exporting powerhouse thanks to their market penetration, especially if they start exporting their latest military equipment.
 
Fascinating responses guys. So it seems if Germany doesn't force the issue with Poland a War in Europe is off the tables, Stalin won't invade Poland without Germany?

Do we see a Western intervention in defence of China or will Japan be given carte blanche in East Asia? Could we see the Soviets and Japan go to war? Where would the rest of the world align themselves in this war?

What impact does this lack of powder keg have on Mussolini or Franco? If Germany won't make a move then any territorial ambitions they had seem halted in their tracks.

Nothing? New status quo. Does Germany stop rearming and transition to an export economy? If they don't they're in serious trouble; if they do, they own central europe and are an exporting powerhouse thanks to their market penetration, especially if they start exporting their latest military equipment.

Whatever you want as long as they don't start invading other countries.
 

Deleted member 1487

Fascinating responses guys. So it seems if Germany doesn't force the issue with Poland a War in Europe is off the tables, Stalin won't invade Poland without Germany?

Do we see a Western intervention in defence of China or will Japan be given carte blanche in East Asia? Could we see the Soviets and Japan go to war? Where would the rest of the world align themselves in this war?

What impact does this lack of powder keg have on Mussolini or Franco? If Germany won't make a move then any territorial ambitions they had seem halted in their tracks.
Japan won't be given carte blanche, but there likely won't be intervention directly, more like embargoes and material support to China along with advisors. Germany probably would stay involved in supporting China, as the alliance with Japan loses all motive once Hitler is gone and Germany settles down in Europe; Chinese trade is FAR more profitable.

Whatever you want as long as they don't start invading other countries.
A Goering government post-Hitler would likely start exporting to sustain the economy, as Hitler was the driving force to constantly prepare for war.
 
Fascinating responses guys. So it seems if Germany doesn't force the issue with Poland a War in Europe is off the tables, Stalin won't invade Poland without Germany?

In fact, he won't. He was the opposite of Hitler under a certain important respect: he was cautious. Even in OTL, he didn't move into Poland until it was almost too late.


Do we see a Western intervention in defence of China or will Japan be given carte blanche in East Asia? Could we see the Soviets and Japan go to war? Where would the rest of the world align themselves in this war?

War there in one alignment or another is likely in any case.

What impact does this lack of powder keg have on Mussolini or Franco? If Germany won't make a move then any territorial ambitions they had seem halted in their tracks.

Huh, Franco was satisfied and had his own country to care for after a long, exhausting civil war. Mussolini OTOH will pursue downsized ambitions. He's still pretty likely to imitate Hitler's Czech move in Albania, for starters.

After that, it will fast forward to a sort of Cold-War-style political destabilization game for all. The Nazis were already playing it; they no longer needed that game in Austria or the Sudeten, but they can play it in Romania with the Garda de Fier. The Fascists are playing the game in Croatia, and will continue to do so, with Yugoslavia probably falling in Mussolini's sights after Albania. The Soviets might well continue with the International card in places like Poland and the Protectorate, Finland, the Baltic states, here and there, and especially anywhere there is a dictatorship or authoritarian regime, and an outlawed Communist party.

The British and French will ponderously insist with Stalin to enter an anti-German alliance. But if Germany stops making threatening noises at Gdansk and Poland in general, then there is even less motivation for the Polish leadership to accept that, and without the Poles it has little meaning. It might come into being without them, but more likely it won't.
 
I guess Soviets will be sitting on their side of border and get again more onvolved in China. Maybe Stalin will be banging his head against wall for not pushing Czechoslovaks more, sending them at least some aircrafts. OTL Soviets never answered question of Czechoslovak air force commander about possibility of sending at least Aircrafts.

It did answer the call for assistance in 1968.

Old Soviet joke.
 
It did answer the call for assistance in 1968..
1968 was totally different story though. Czechoslovakia was already in different position towards USSR and USSR itself was in different position in Central Europe.

Germans too during Slovak National Uprising answered call for assistsnce from President Tiso.

In 1938 they didn't bother without France even if their ambassador in Prague was saying Prague just need to ask fir help. Prague was reluctant and when question about airplanes came Moscow didn't answer.
 
1968 was totally different story though. Czechoslovakia was already in different position towards USSR and USSR itself was in different position in Central Europe.

Germans too during Slovak National Uprising answered call for assistsnce from President Tiso.

In 1938 they didn't bother without France even if their ambassador in Prague was saying Prague just need to ask fir help. Prague was reluctant and when question about airplanes came Moscow didn't answer.

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Germany doesn't have to stop rearming just hammer the eastern European countries into an German backed alliance armed with surplus armaments from the rearmament drive. Dangle Stalinist threat as the motivator for such a merger.
 
Germany doesn't have to stop rearming ...

Huh, well, there's that they're scraping the bottom of the barrel as to valuable foreign currency and they still need South American fuel, Swedish iron ore, colonial rubber, Finnish nickel, steel additives from all over Europe, aluminium from somewhere abroad, and so on.
There also is the issue of public debt; they're going to default Argentina-style by 1941 at the latest if they don't change something.
 

Loghain

Banned
On May 16, 1935 the Czechoslovak-Soviet Treaty of Alliance was signed between the two states[1] as the consequence of Soviet alliance with France (which was the Czechoslovak main ally). At the insistence of the Czechoslovak government, a protocol on the signing of the treaty stipulated that the treaty would go into force only if France gave assistance to the victim of aggression. However, France did not support Czechoslovakia in 1938, having signed the Munich agreement instead.

Well it appears we might have been hit by our own bullet. :D
 
For whatever reason Nazi Germany stops its expansionist movements after April 1939, they never sign a pact with Russia, they don't invade Poland.

How would the Soviet Union and the rest of the world react to this? What happens to Japan, who do they ally with? Do the Soviets take all of Poland?

In regards to Poland, my guess is that the Soviets would want more buffer. They would move on eastern Poland citing that the areas had Belarusan or Ukrainian majorities (or near majorities) and were thus not truly Polish. This could prompt Germany to do the same with Silesia and Kashubian areas. Though Polish speaking Silesians and Kashubians self identified as "Polish" and opted for Poland in 1918, there were cultural ties between both groups and Germany. As for rump Poland, I have no idea what would happen- maybe a buffer state?
 
In regards to Poland, my guess is that the Soviets would want more buffer.

So, up until 1939, with Germany out to swallow Austria, Czechoslovakia and Memel, and building arms as if there was no tomorrow, the Soviet did not feel they could make a solitary move for more buffer in Poland. Then, once Germany starts producing and selling radios and cuckoo clocks and people's cars, reduces combat readiness, and doesn't invade Poland - the Soviets change their minds and, all alone, seize more buffer.
Why?
 
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