WI: Nazi Germany sides with Nationalist China

Weimar Germany had very strong relationships with Chiang Kai-Shek's China. Although Hitler eventually ended up supporting Imperial Japan's aggression against China, the overwhelming public sentiment in Germany was pro-Chinese, even to the point that the Germans even provided military aid to the Chinese until 1938, until the Japanese pressured them to withdraw it.

Hitler had decided to side with Japan because he felt that Japan would be more likely to win, disregarding a history of Sino-German cooperation. What would have happened if Adolf Hitler, having the foresight to predict that China would not fall as quickly as the Japanese predicted, decided to support the Chinese against the Japanese?
 
Hard to say. It would, of course, mess up the entry of the US to high heaven - but probably not much more than the whole Finland thing did.
 
If the Axis had won, what kind of relationship would form between China and Germany? I doubt it'd be very friendly.

And if the Allies win, how would Imperial Japan, the USSR, and the United States operate? All three would be likely antagonistic toward one another.

What would REALLY screw things up, is if Japan still attacked the USA.
 
If the Axis had won, what kind of relationship would form between China and Germany? I doubt it'd be very friendly.

And if the Allies win, how would Imperial Japan, the USSR, and the United States operate? All three would be likely antagonistic toward one another.

What would REALLY screw things up, is if Japan still attacked the USA.

If you want to screw it up even more, have someone like Charles Lindbergh somehow be President...
 
If the Axis had won, what kind of relationship would form between China and Germany? I doubt it'd be very friendly.

And if the Allies win, how would Imperial Japan, the USSR, and the United States operate? All three would be likely antagonistic toward one another.

What would REALLY screw things up, is if Japan still attacked the USA.

I suspect what would happen is: December 1941, the Japanese blow the living hell out of Pearl on schedule. They still have their oil and rubber shortages, and the POD hasn't done anything to change that - if anything, the tougher Chinese has made it worse. America is now at war with Japan, along with the UK and the rest of the allies. At this point what happens next is really up to Roosevelt - if he can keep inching the US towards war with Germany, things go on much as IOTL. China is seriously screwed, although if they have any sense they'll disassociate themselves from the Germans as quickly as possible.

If Roosevelt can't drag the US into Europe... well, lend-lease will go on, and probably even get ramped up (albeit not as much as IOTL) so eventually a wave of Russians will sweep over Germany. The western allies probably won't get as much - France, maybe not even that, depending on how things go.
 
If you could get USSR-Britain-Japan vs. America-Germany-China... That would be really complicated.

But one wonders how much cooperation there'd really be between Japan and the Western Allies in this scenario... and I wonder if Roosevelt (if you keep Roosevelt in there, which seems the obvious direction to go in) would decide to lift the restrictions on Japan and decide that the war against Germany was more relevant to the US' interests. (But then you still have to find a way to actually get the US in said war)
 
Ok, I see this as seriously screwing up WW2. Nationalist China is unlikely to be the aggressor in its war against Japan, however, so the situation might be analogous to Finland--the USA does not declare war against China, but it will not help China's larger aims.

A Japan engaged in China where China has acquired support from Germany is likely to avoid an Oil Embargo from the West, which although it might disapprove of the invasion, it would understand that some kind of understanding is needed with Japan. The Japanese remain fighting in China, and the USA and UK reluctantly support Japan.

This removes the entire Pacific War from WW2, and means that the efforts of the USA and UK are firmly directed against Germany, which is screwed. China will probably not be entirely subdued-even if Japan is able to force the west to recognize a large number of Pro-Japanese strongmen in China, the situation is going to be explosive.

While Germany goes down the drain in the 1940s, Japan will probably get more than it bargained for in China--even with the worlds economy bolstering their efforts, Japan can't do better than controlling China's most vital regions.

Chiang might be beaten, or he might hold on in Chunking, but either way, China is going to become a massive Vietnam. This will mostly help the west, but China itself would probably still be a mess today. In addition, Japan's military edges would remain to a large degree--although pulling out of China would be humiliating. Could Japan return to a democratic government? I think this shift would be recent and Japanese Democracy fragile.
 
Hitler Reorients his Oriental Alliance

I'm sorry, but if Hitler supports continued ties with China, I do not see this as being beneficial in any way, to Japan or the Allies.

Despite the fact that Roosevelt wanted to go to war in Europe, his actions against the Japanese were not the caveat he foresaw bringing the US into WWII. There were American investments in China, a bit of racism at the "Japs/Nips" trying to steal away a valid market, and the strong China lobby in Washington pleading for aid from whatever quarters they could find from the Yellow Menace. As is, Japan helped Germany very little during the war, so the lack of an alliance doesn't really change anything in Europe, though Japan will continue to take advantage of Hitler's actions (Indochina, Dutch East Indies, etc.).

If Hitler decides to honor the German alliance with China, I can see military advisors remaining, maybe Shanghai itself turning into a meat grinder. Roosevelt still sanctions Japan, places the oil embargo, and Pearl happens. The US is now in all out war in the Pacific. Will Congress continue Lend Lease when the country is at war? That is debatable. What isn't is that Germany will not be at war with America. At best, the US wins by 43' but that may be too late to change things in Europe.

Without America in 42', Torch fails to happen, Hitler may still pour forces into North Africa, and Egypt falls. The Middle East and its oil opens to the Nazis and, worse for the Allies, the Germans have a means to flank the Soviets through the Caucasus. Should the Nazis seize Baku and attack Stalingrad from the east, the south may well fall. A negotiated peace with Stalin could happen or Hitler, being Hitler, could go for it all. But without a threat from the west, Hitler has forces to throw into Soviet Russia.

For those who continue to think the Soviets won the war, without the diversions of Normandy and Torch, the Germans can focus on their true enemy. And if Lend Lease ends due to war with the Japanese, the Soviets are in for some real trouble. German victory by late 43? Maybe.
 
This gets messy for the Japanese.

If the Germans were still supporting China in September 1940, they might pressure the Vichy French to resist the Japanese incursion into IndoChina.
A major Japanese effort then to take IndoChina against resistance would trigger an American oil emargo then instead of July 1940.

OTL the Japanese struggled a bit at the Battle of South Guangxi and the closing the IndoChina supply route meant the Japanese could shrink back to the coast without having to control the area on China's side of the border.

Also the Germans had evidence of the Rape of Nanking, perhaps propagandizing this evidence turns world opinion even more against the Japanese with more international support for China I could see the Chinese being able to lauch a war of attrition so unbearable that the Japanese withdraw from Central China altogether.
 
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