WI Nazi Germany made an attempt to reconquer former German colonies

[Bill Cameron]

Italians succeeded in putting an average of 72,000 tons of supplies ashore a day in Africa. Or did this not happen?

Kenmac,

It may have happened. It's only the equivalent of 6 Liberty ships after all. Whether it the equivalent of 6 Liberty ships arrived in Italian North Africa every day, every week, or even every month is another question.

I think the disconnect here is your confusion of a freighter arriving in port with supplies at the fighting front.

Freighters need to be unloaded and that cargo needs to be shipped from the port to where it's going. Italian North Africa had neither the port facilities, transport infrastructure, or transportation assets to move that amount of cargo out of the port and then to where it was going to be used. Huge amounts of supplies sat unused in Tripoli because they could not be moved overland in a timely fashion to the German and Italian divisions fighting a few hundred kilometers to the east.

There's a very old military truism which states "Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics". Sun Tzu repeatedly states it in various ways. Looking at a map and plotting out where armor, airborne, and infantry divisions can possibly drive, fly, and march is one thing. Looking at the map and figuring out how you can possibly supply those divisions is something else entirely.


Bill

 

[kenmac]

The Germans lacked, among other things, the transport bottoms to supply a force of the size you are putting forward as possible. An Armored Division is effectively a bottomless pit into which one throws supplies with a hope of obtaining sucessful results. It requires huge amounts of fuel and ammunition every day it is in action, and burns a remarkable amount of supply simply sending other supplies forward. The Germans never did manage to get a full armored divsion into the Western Desert, primarily because there was no way to supply one.

Even with the Axis ports in full operation, their capacity paled compared to the British ports. Alexandria alone was able to handle moe shipping at one time than any two of the Axis ports (and Tobruk was only Axis on an occasional basis).

They managed to supply two Panzer divisions through ports at half capacity.
This was in 1942 with the Italians even losing 50% of their supplies at sea.
With no war with the Soviets the Germans will have air superiority over the areas and that will mean a lot more supplies will make it.

Lastly, but critically, if one accepts your position stated in another post, that the Luftwaffe effort againt the UK is not taking place. This will allow the RAF to go from general air superiority, which sometimes see-sawed to the Luftwaffe, to total air supremacy. The Luftwaffe will not be able to greatly increase its presence for the same reason it was impossible for the Heer to support full armored divisions in the Western Desert, logistical weakness. If an armored division is a bottomless pit for supplies, a fighter or bomber wing is a Black Hole.

The British can supply their forces, even a much increased force, the Germans simply can not. Couldn't IOTL, can't in this scenario.

Lets see how the RAF can get more fighters to N Africa in 1940 than the Germans can.
I very much doubt it.
As for supplies we have covered that and that is even without the use of Tunis which the French granted them in OTL.

 

[kenmac]

Kenmac,

It may have happened. It's only the equivalent of 6 Liberty ships after all. Whether it the equivalent of 6 Liberty ships arrived in Italian North Africa every day, every week, or even every month is another question.

I think the disconnect here is your confusion of a freighter arriving in port with supplies at the fighting front.

Freighters need to be unloaded and that cargo needs to be shipped from the port to where it's going. Italian North Africa had neither the port facilities, transport infrastructure, or transportation assets to move that amount of cargo out of the port and then to where it was going to be used. Huge amounts of supplies sat unused in Tripoli because they could not be moved overland in a timely fashion to the German and Italian divisions fighting a few hundred kilometers to the east.

There's a very old military truism which states "Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics". Sun Tzu repeatedly states it in various ways. Looking at a map and plotting out where armor, airborne, and infantry divisions can possibly drive, fly, and march is one thing. Looking at the map and figuring out how you can possibly supply those divisions is something else entirely.


Bill

Have we not just covered land transport?
How many trucks do you think could be used if there is no Barbarossa?

 

[kenmac]

Even by December 1940 the British only had -

36,000 soldiers

120 artillery pieces

275 tanks

142 aircraft

If the Germans had sent 2 or even 1 Panzer division and 1 Mobile Infantry division, a serious airforce and Rommel along with the Italians who had -

150,000 soldiers

1,600 artillery pieces

600 tanks

331 aircraft

They would have had the British out of Egypt in no time.

 

[Bill Cameron]

Have we not just covered land transport?

kenmac,

No, "we" haven't.

How many trucks do you think could be used if there is no Barbarossa?

Not enough because you have to get them to North Africa and then provide them with fuel. Google "Redball Express" for a real world example. You're going to be using more fuel to get fuel to your panzers than the fuel you're actually delivering to the panzers. There's this little thing called the law of diminishing returns.

As has been repeatedly explained to you in this thread, this isn't a game of Axis & Allies and Fascist Italy is not a wholly controlled subsidiary of Nazi Germany Inc. Italy only joins the war in June of '40 almost a year after it began. They are not going to immediately hand over operations in what they believe are the territories of their nascent empire to Germany and Germany cannot shift the assets you blithely assume they can so rapidly to another theater especially when crossing the Mediterranean is involved.


Bill

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Germany does not have panzer divisions to throw everywhere and Mussolini is certainly not accepting the humiliation of begging Hitler to bail him out one instant before he absolutely must.

Those figures for the British in December 1940 are wrong. When Mussolini declared war, six months earlier, those figures were correct, ignoring the presence of another 27,000 men in Palestine and a substantial addition of forces already on the way to Egypt.

The figures for the Italians...the British captured or killed at least as many Italians as you have in all of Libya.

The Italians never landed 72,000 tons of supplies in a day. At their best during the Tunisian campaign, over a much shorter distance and with the Germans making a massive effort, they found it hard to land much more than that in a month, and that rate soon collapsed under the attrition the Allies inflicted on them.

 

[kenmac]

No, "we" haven't.



Not enough because you have to get them to North Africa and then provide them with fuel. Google "Redball Express" for a real world example. You're going to be using more fuel to get fuel to your panzers than the fuel you're actually delivering to the panzers. There's this little thing called the law of diminishing returns.

Well this is obvious but what matters is that the Panzers get fuel which they did even in OTL in much tougher circumstances.
If Germanys war aims were to get back it's colonies then Italy would allow the use of Libya without doubt if they in turn got Egypt, Sudan, Kenya, Malta etc.
As for getting them to Libya as ive said with Libyan ports only operating at 50% capacity in 1942 alone with much greater numbers to supply (not even mentioning the potential use of Tunis), greater convoy concentration and German aircover in 1940 will mean more supplies and less loses and no Soviet front will mean vastly larger numbers of trucks which all in all puts the Axis in a far superior logistical possition that in any time in OTL.
No way could the British hold.
Once Egypt his fallen the supply problems further east are all over for the Axis with Alexandria in their hands.

 

[Bill Cameron]

Well this is obvious but what matters is that the Panzers get fuel which they did even in OTL in much tougher circumstances.

Rommels panzers got the fuel they needed in the OTL?

Well, I'm done here. Anyone else want to try to explain reality to him?


Bill

 

[Cornelius]

Just to reiterate some basic facts: the italian army was essentialy infantry based with few armoured and motorized division, Lybia lacked many importan infrasturcture as a proper railroad network for example and there were low stockpiles of crucial resources as petrol. All of this because Mussolini was deeply convinced that war would have lasted just for few more weeks, so proper war preparation was useless.
In this situation italians could have seized Egypt only with a monstrous stroke of luck. Even with the help of Germany the odds don't change in a significant manner for the logistic reason that others have explained. Consider, besides, that for Germany is dangerous to pour too many resources and troops in North Africa since it would leave her exposed to a possible russian attack. Realistically the window for an axis mediterrean strategy is between the fall of France and the start of operation Barbarossa; delaying the latter would be dangerous for Germany.

Now could italians take Egypt? Yes, if you suppose a POD in 1937. Have Mussolini realize that war with UK is unavoidable and that Egypt is a key point in such a war. Have the fascist start serious preparations for a war in the desert as creating the necessary logistic network, equipping troops with vehicles and tanks and so on so forth. In other words have Italy prepare for war.
In such a scenario, italians could have a fair shot to reaching Suez, which in turn could make Uk sue for peace and letting so Germany getting back her former colonies. Please note the conditionals, the butterflies are around.
Note also that italians have to make it alone, because there no realistic way to have Italy so subservient to Germany in 1940 to let Hitler call the shots, without some serious POD in the 30ies.

 

[kenmac]

Germany does not have panzer divisions to throw everywhere and Mussolini is certainly not accepting the humiliation of begging Hitler to bail him out one instant before he absolutely must.

So you are saying Germany didnt have 2 Panzer divisions in 1940?
And as for Mussolini at this point he dosnt need bailing out he will just be getting help from his ally as he can say he gave them in France.

Those figures for the British in December 1940 are wrong. When Mussolini declared war, six months earlier, those figures were correct, ignoring the presence of another 27,000 men in Palestine and a substantial addition of forces already on the way to Egypt.

The figures are right.
Palestine is a long way from Egypt.

The figures for the Italians...the British captured or killed at least as many Italians as you have in all of Libya.

At least as many as were there?
How can they capture more than that are there?

The Italians never landed 72,000 tons of supplies in a day. At their best during the Tunisian campaign, over a much shorter distance and with the Germans making a massive effort, they found it hard to land much more than that in a month, and that rate soon collapsed under the attrition the Allies inflicted on them.

They did land 72,000 a day.
By the time of Tunisia over 75% of Italian shipping was being sunk.

 

[kenmac]

Rommels panzers got the fuel they needed in the OTL?

Well, I'm done here. Anyone else want to try to explain reality to him?


Bill

I guess magic took them to El Alamein did it?

 

[Astrodragon]

Rommels panzers got the fuel they needed in the OTL?

Well, I'm done here. Anyone else want to try to explain reality to him?


Bill

I'm confused, is it half term and I didnt notice??

 

[zoomar]

Don't disturb the Germanophiles with facts. Their historical icons were unconcerned with logistics, and so are they.

This whole thing sounds like a Risk game gone wild. Oh, I forgot! Only bad luck and poor decisions prevented the Germans from sweeping across the globe in 1942 behind 12,000 He-280 jet fighters, a 1000 Ju-89 heavy bombers, divisions full of Maus tanks, fleets of super-Bismarcks, and manned space stations armed with death rays. Those silly Germans. If only Hitler and Goering had not been in charge!

 

[kenmac]

Strange how the people here who insist that Nazis always lose no matter what keep mentioning the word "logistics" but nothing about the Logistics themselves i.e tonnage supplied/needed, trucks needed and supplied, port capacity etc.
Only I have done so.
All the data is available online go take a read.
As for myself what do I work in Logistics so what do I know.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

kenmac, it's obvious to anyone that there's a huge difference between my noting that Hitler didn't have panzer divisions to throw everywhere and your claiming I said Germany didn't have two panzer divisions. You're not making yourself look good with such foolishness.

Mussolini is not asking for powerful German forces to help as he doesn't think he needs them in December 1940 and he wants the glory of at least one clear win for himself.

Your figures for December 1940 are entirely wrong and as the number of Italians captured by O'Connor is a matter of record that is beyond doubt.

Palestine borders Egypt, hardly far at all.

As for your claim of 72,000 tons a day it is ironic that you claim Germany could have been a great help with supplies when you also claim actual Italo-German supplies landed in Tunisia, a much greater effort than Italy in Libya two years earlier, was far less per month than Italy landed in a day or two.

 

[Bill Cameron]

As for myself what do I work in Logistics so what do I know.

If you actually worked in "Logistics" you wouldn't spell it with a capital "L".

Astrodragon is correct. There's a school vacation period occurring somewhere.

 

[I Blame Communism]

In such a scenario, italians could have a fair shot to reaching Suez, which in turn could make Uk sue for peace and letting so Germany getting back her former colonies. Please note the conditionals, the butterflies are around.

I doubt it. We actually did make the preliminary preparations for evacuating Great Britain and continuing the war from Canada.

 

[Caspian]

From Libya by air of course. To Equatorial Guinea and the French West Africa to use against Togoland and the Cameroon.

Using what plane? It's over 2000 miles from Tripoli to Equatorial Guinea, in a straight line that flies over Nigeria (which is held by the British). Even the extreme border of Libya is 1500 miles away, and I doubt the Axis could build and support an airfield and transport wing large enough to supply forces that would be large enough to engage in any meaningful sort of combat in that region.

 

[Bearcat]

If you actually worked in "Logistics" you wouldn't spell it with a capital "L".

Astrodragon is correct. There's a school vacation period occurring somewhere.

Logistics?

We don't need no stinking logistics!!!

The German Army will be carried to Africa on the backs of it's Giant Mutant Carnivorous Sealions, sweeping all before it!!!

Sealions Uber Alles!

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Not after the British Mega Roaches arrive with 4000cm guns and smash all before them!