WI: Nazi Germany Controls the Lands It Wants in the East. How Long Does It Take to Populate Fully?

Greenville

Banned
What if Nazi Germany gets the hegemony it wants in eastern Europe without resistance such as partisans or insurgents. How long does it take to repopulate the lands of eastern Europe?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
What if Nazi Germany gets the hegemony it wants in eastern Europe without resistance such as partisans or insurgents. How long does it take to repopulate the lands of eastern Europe?
If it kills all of the existing, "non-Germanizable" people who live there, then probably several centuries, at least.
 
Depends on how much is "fully populated". Looking at what the Third Reich actually wanted, they won't need any more than Midwest population density. Assuming Nazis bump up the birthrate to an even 10% growth per decade (not an unreasonable assumption considering the indoctrination people would be subject to), you'd be looking at a population level of above 160,000,000 Germans coming from the heartland in 2017. Add to that the populations of Volga Germans, "acceptably Aryan" Slavs, and so on, and the population will easily break 200,000,000. Now this doesn't seem like all that much for a territory as massive as the Third Reich will hold, but it won't be vacant either- you would see heavily populated areas around the Baltic and on the West side of the Vistula, a couple big clusters of Germans in different key spots, and a whole lot of land that isn't very highly populated but has more than enough Germans to keep the farms running.

Extrapolating growth rates (difficult to do, but easier to guess while under an Authoritarian regime driving them up), you may well see a population greater than OTL's same area come TTL's 2050-2060.
 
Depends on how much is "fully populated". Looking at what the Third Reich actually wanted, they won't need any more than Midwest population density. Assuming Nazis bump up the birthrate to an even 10% growth per decade (not an unreasonable assumption considering the indoctrination people would be subject to), you'd be looking at a population level of above 160,000,000 Germans coming from the heartland in 2017. Add to that the populations of Volga Germans, "acceptably Aryan" Slavs, and so on, and the population will easily break 200,000,000. Now this doesn't seem like all that much for a territory as massive as the Third Reich will hold, but it won't be vacant either- you would see heavily populated areas around the Baltic and on the West side of the Vistula, a couple big clusters of Germans in different key spots, and a whole lot of land that isn't very highly populated but has more than enough Germans to keep the farms running.

Extrapolating growth rates (difficult to do, but easier to guess while under an Authoritarian regime driving them up), you may well see a population greater than OTL's same area come TTL's 2050-2060.

The size of the Greater Germanic Reich will depend on where they draw the eastern border, and whether or not they betray Finland and absorb their territory into it. A border at the Urals, and a country that includes Finland is about 2.9 million square miles. Brazil is almost 3.3 million square miles with a population of just over 200 million, of course most of that is rain forest.
 
The size of the Greater Germanic Reich will depend on where they draw the eastern border, and whether or not they betray Finland and absorb their territory into it. A border at the Urals, and a country that includes Finland is about 2.9 million square miles. Brazil is almost 3.3 million square miles with a population of just over 200 million, of course most of that is rain forest.
And yet the United States had more an managed to operate just fine with less than 100 million people, to a certain degree of "fully populated". I'd say the U.S was fully populated in 1970, when it had about 200 million people
 
And yet the United States had more an managed to operate just fine with less than 100 million people, to a certain degree of "fully populated". I'd say the U.S was fully populated in 1970, when it had about 200 million people

I'm not disagreeing, just trying to put the size of this Reich into perspective. Yeah, as far as everyone is concerned, by the modern day it would be considered "fully populated."
 

RousseauX

Donor
What if Nazi Germany gets the hegemony it wants in eastern Europe without resistance such as partisans or insurgents. How long does it take to repopulate the lands of eastern Europe?
So where in eastern Europe are you talking about? Western Poland is do-able within a few decades
 

RousseauX

Donor
Depends on how much is "fully populated". Looking at what the Third Reich actually wanted, they won't need any more than Midwest population density. Assuming Nazis bump up the birthrate to an even 10% growth per decade (not an unreasonable assumption considering the indoctrination people would be subject to), you'd be looking at a population level of above 160,000,000 Germans coming from the heartland in 2017. Add to that the populations of Volga Germans, "acceptably Aryan" Slavs, and so on, and the population will easily break 200,000,000. Now this doesn't seem like all that much for a territory as massive as the Third Reich will hold, but it won't be vacant either- you would see heavily populated areas around the Baltic and on the West side of the Vistula, a couple big clusters of Germans in different key spots, and a whole lot of land that isn't very highly populated but has more than enough Germans to keep the farms running.

Extrapolating growth rates (difficult to do, but easier to guess while under an Authoritarian regime driving them up), you may well see a population greater than OTL's same area come TTL's 2050-2060.
Government natalist policies don't work: authoritarian states or not

Germany's demography will decline with GDP per capita, on top of that, it's going to be very difficult to get people to move to rural estonia or Russia or whatever. Because wages are much much higher in cities than on farms. The pattern everywhere in the post-war world was urbanization and not people wanting more land. If the choice is working in factory in Berlin or farm some burnt out land in the Russian steppes very few rational people would choose the latter.
 

RousseauX

Donor
it's an interesting question and I suspect the answer to large swath of depopulated eastern Europe is close to 'never'

the land will be farmed by agribusinesses hiring seasonal/professional labor and heavily mechanized, not the imaginary Aryan yeoman farmers of the Nazi imagination
 
Government natalist policies don't work: authoritarian states or not

Germany's demography will decline with GDP per capita, on top of that, it's going to be very difficult to get people to move to rural estonia or Russia or whatever. Because wages are much much higher in cities than on farms. The pattern everywhere in the post-war world was urbanization and not people wanting more land. If the choice is working in factory in Berlin or farm some burnt out land in the Russian steppes very few rational people would choose the latter.
And the data to prove that is where....?

Putting aside the fact that France's Natalist Policies have been shown to have some success, there's also the fact that it's not like there are many examples in history of Natalism going all-in like they would in Nazi Germany.
 

RousseauX

Donor
And the data to prove that is where....?

Putting aside the fact that France's Natalist Policies have been shown to have some success,
France's natalist policies "work" because of immigrants

there's also the fact that it's not like there are many examples in history of Natalism going all-in like they would in Nazi Germany.
That's because there isn't much governments can do to promote additional births

I mean yeah maybe you move your per woman kids from 1.7 to 1.9 or something but you are gonna get to 3 or whatever it is you need to run a settler colony composed of european russia
 
Government natalist policies don't work: authoritarian states or not

Germany's demography will decline with GDP per capita, on top of that, it's going to be very difficult to get people to move to rural estonia or Russia or whatever. Because wages are much much higher in cities than on farms. The pattern everywhere in the post-war world was urbanization and not people wanting more land. If the choice is working in factory in Berlin or farm some burnt out land in the Russian steppes very few rational people would choose the latter.

But most of those were under communist governments, or at least left leaning governments that preached equality of the sexes. If women were kept out of many types of jobs, and had limitations placed on their education, then wouldn't that result in a higher birth rate? They wouldn't be expected to balance work and motherhood, and with less opportunity available to them on their own they would have pressure to marry and have kids.
 

RousseauX

Donor
But most of those were under communist governments, or at least left leaning governments that preached equality of the sexes. If women were kept out of many types of jobs, and had limitations placed on their education, then wouldn't that result in a higher birth rate? They wouldn't be expected to balance work and motherhood, and with less opportunity available to them on their own they would have pressure to marry and have kids.
Saudi Arabia has a fertility rate of ~2.7, with much greater ability to restrict women's rights than Nazi Germany would in restricting woman's rights (of Aryans)
 
France's natalist policies "work" because of immigrants

That's because there isn't much governments can do to promote additional births

I mean yeah maybe you move your per woman kids from 1.7 to 1.9 or something but you are gonna get to 3 or whatever it is you need to run a settler colony composed of european russia
Again, do you have evidence to support this outside of isolated real life examples? Because those real life governments didn't raise children from an early age with the teaching that it's their purpose to breed a master race, then go out and give them massive economic incentives to do just that. They also didn't have the political ability to restrict birth control to the extent Germany would.
 

RousseauX

Donor
From where, exactly?
I wouldn't be surprised if many of them turns out to be italian/french since Germany's postwar plan needs them to keep systematically loot/improvish other European countries in an event of victory. If the economy in those places are shitty enough some of them are gonna become farm labors.

Don't expect the Germans themselves to do this though because wages in Berlin/Munich etc are gonna be really high in a German victory scenario.
 
Saudi Arabia has a fertility rate of ~2.7, with much greater ability to restrict women's rights than Nazi Germany would in restricting woman's rights (of Aryans)

But that's as of 2017. We are talking about 1945-2017 here. Of course the fertility rate will still drop over time, but they'd be starting at a higher rate in the post-war period.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Again, do you have evidence to support this outside of isolated real life examples? Because those real life governments didn't raise children from an early age with the teaching that it's their purpose to breed a master race, then go out and give them massive economic incentives to do just that.
The USSR literally did this and gave medals to woman who had many kids and their demographics followed that of the rest of the world

They also didn't have the political ability to restrict birth control to the extent Germany would.
Woman in the east bloc just had sex on/close to their periods when birth control got banned/restricted
 

RousseauX

Donor
But that's as of 2017. We are talking about 1945-2017 here. Of course the fertility rate will still drop over time, but they'd be starting at a higher rate in the post-war period.
Saudi Arabia was also a lot poorer than germany until fairly recently: the key variable isn't the precise year in time but income per capita
 

RousseauX

Donor
Let's put it this way: if Nazi Germany was stuck at income per capita of $700 instead of what is probably gonna be $7000 (at least) or so by 1950 it's prob do-able
 
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