WI: Nazi Germany continued peaceful expansion instead of invading Poland

[Aloha May]

As proven by the 1939 German annexation of Memelland, France and Britain felt fine ignoring Germany's territorial growth as long as the territory was small enough and the victim country was unimportant enough. So, what if Germany kept on with peaceful expansionism instead of invading Poland? For example, what if Nazi Germany demanded

-All of Schleswig-Holstein

-Slovenia (maybe with the exception of Prekmurje)

-Anschluss of Liechtenstein

-Lithuania w/ Vilnius (according to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact)

-Sopron-Ödenburg

Or the more unlikely demands

-German-speaking Switzerland (or some minor border concessions)

-Anschluss of Luxembourg

-Eupen-Malmedy

-Trentino & the Adriatic Littoral

 

[pompejus]

Besides the fact that Nazi economy was so bad it would collapse without the loot of a war and there are several places that you mentioned who would not join Germany willingly (meaning wa). After invading Rump Czechia Hitler proved to the world that he was completely unreliable, so noone would be willing to make a deal with him. I doubt the allies would agree with Denmark handing over Danish Schleswig of Belgium handing over Eupen-Malmedy, like they did with the Sudetenland, if it would mean that Germany could still march into Denmark or Belgium.

 

[David T]

The UK and France were less likely to acquiesce in such demands than in the "Danzig plus an extraterritorial road through the Corridor" demand--which after all could be plausibly justified by self-determination. The part of Schleswig-Holstein which had been left to Denmark was overwhelmingly Danish--and indeed the Danish border was one that Hitler never questioned, even when his troops were occupying Denmark. The neutrality of Switzerland was a keystone of the European status quo, and it was obvious that German-speaking Swiss had no desire to join the Reich. The only part of Lithuania to which Germany could have any plausible claim was Memel. (Yes, at first the Soviets would agree to let Germany have Lithuania in the original version of the 1939 Soviet-German pact--but that was only in the context of a broader agreement letting the USSR have eastern Poland in return for Germany getting the western part.) Demanding Trentino would destroy the alliance with Mussolini that Hitler had worked so hard to create (even n the 1920's he had displeased many pan-Germans on this issue). And so on. Even if some of the demands would not result in a world war, they would be at best offer Hitler trivial gains while uniting other European countries against him.

 

[seraphim74]

As proven by the 1939 German annexation of Memelland, France and Britain felt fine ignoring Germany's territorial growth as long as the territory was small enough and the victim country was unimportant enough. So, what if Germany kept on with peaceful expansionism instead of invading Poland? For example, what if Nazi Germany demanded

-All of Schleswig-Holstein

-Slovenia (maybe with the exception of Prekmurje)

-Anschluss of Liechtenstein

-Lithuania w/ Vilnius (according to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact)

-Sopron-Ödenburg

Or the more unlikely demands

-German-speaking Switzerland (or some minor border concessions)

-Anschluss of Luxembourg

-Eupen-Malmedy

-Trentino & the Adriatic Littoral

As pompejus noticed, Hitler had lost any credibility after conquest of Czechoslovakia. No one would ever trust him again. France and Britain started really looking for allies against Germany any further demands would be met with French-British counteractions. Not to mention while Sudetenland and Austria had without a doubt German, German speaking or pro-German majority, I'm not sure the the same can be said about some regions you mentioned. E.g. I do not think the Suiss would be happy about being part of Germany.
And BTW, before September 1939 Vilnius was in Poland. Poland would NEVER give it up. So there would be war, one way or another.

 

[Marc]

Not to mention that a Europe filled with Jews is completely unacceptable to the German government. A not unimportant motivating factor for conquest.

 

[Nephi]

Lithuania, as in all of it, peacefully. Nah

It was the Czechoslovakian treasure they looted that gave their economy It's war fund.

 

[Michele]

As proven by the 1939 German annexation of Memelland, France and Britain felt fine ignoring Germany's territorial growth as long as the territory was small enough and the victim country was unimportant enough.

The annexation of Memel proves nothing of the sort. It only proves that Britain and France were both aware that they were behind on the rearmament curve, and that they could not intervene because Lithuania had chosen neutrality. They had no alliance with Lithuania, and no casus belli, especially if the target country chose to acquiesce to the German demand instead of fighting itself.

So, what if Germany kept on with peaceful expansionism instead of invading Poland? For example, what if Nazi Germany demanded

-All of Schleswig-Holstein

We have a pretty clear example of what would happen, since it happened in real history. The Nazis might force the Danish, without a shred of ethnical-minority excuse, to yield that region. At this point, it is obvious what will continue to happen, so the British, who offered a unilateral guarantee to Poland and to Romania (that is seldom forgotten because it was never acted upon), will do the same to all other neutral countries bordering these central-European madmen. And many, if not all, the minor neutrals will accept that. France will follow the British example. And there will be a line in the sand everywhere.

That does not even consider the fact that some countries will fight. Alone, if necessary. Italy isn't going to yield without a war. Switzerland will certainly fight. Hungary probably will do the same. I wouldn't rule out that the Lithuanians, however hopelessly, do the same.

 

[Aloha May]

Lithuania, as in all of it, peacefully. Nah

Tell that to the Soviets

 

[nbcman]

Tell that to the Soviets

The Soviets didn't have Lithuania in the sphere in the secret protocols associated to original Pact that was signed in August 1939. The Germans transferred their claim to Lithuania at the end of September 1939 to the Soviets as part of the general border adjustments after the partition of Poland.

 

[David T]

Tell that to the Soviets

The Soviets in the first version of the Nazi-Soviet pact assigned Lithuania to the German sphere of interest as part of a broader deal under which Germany got the western part of Poland and the Soviets the eastern. But (even leaving aside the fact that the agreement was later modified to give Lithuania to the Soviets and more of ethnic Poland to the Germans) it certainly does not follow from this that the Soviets would be indifferent to a unilateral German seizure of Lithuania without any deal on Poland!

 

[Aloha May]

The Soviets didn't have Lithuania in the sphere in the secret protocols associated to original Pact that was signed in August 1939. The Germans transferred their claim to Lithuania at the end of September 1939 to the Soviets as part of the general border adjustments after the partition of Poland.

The Soviets in the first version of the Nazi-Soviet pact assigned Lithuania to the German sphere of interest as part of a broader deal under which Germany got the western part of Poland and the Soviets the eastern. But (even leaving aside the fact that the agreement was later modified to give Lithuania to the Soviets and more of ethnic Poland to the Germans) it certainly does not follow from this that the Soviets would be indifferent to a unilateral German seizure of Lithuania without any deal on Poland!

You two seem to be confused. I was responding to a comment that scoffed at the idea of a peaceful Nazi annexation of Lithuania by citing the Soviet's peaceful annexation of not only Lithuania, but all of the Baltic States. You two seem to think I was saying "Tell that to the Soviets" out of ignorance when it came to the terms of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?

 

[MatthewB]

Not to mention that a Europe filled with Jews is completely unacceptable to the German government. A not unimportant motivating factor for conquest.

Indeed, many ALT History ideas forget that the Nazis are Nazis.

 

[Zincwarrior]

As proven by the 1939 German annexation of Memelland, France and Britain felt fine ignoring Germany's territorial growth as long as the territory was small enough and the victim country was unimportant enough. So, what if Germany kept on with peaceful expansionism instead of invading Poland? For example, what if Nazi Germany demanded

-All of Schleswig-Holstein

-Slovenia (maybe with the exception of Prekmurje)

-Anschluss of Liechtenstein

-Lithuania w/ Vilnius (according to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact)

-Sopron-Ödenburg

Or the more unlikely demands

-German-speaking Switzerland (or some minor border concessions)

-Anschluss of Luxembourg

-Eupen-Malmedy

-Trentino & the Adriatic Littoral

I would imagine the Swiss would object to it and sit behind their mountains, giving Hitler the finger.

 

[David T]

You two seem to be confused. I was responding to a comment that scoffed at the idea of a peaceful Nazi annexation of Lithuania by citing the Soviet's peaceful annexation of not only Lithuania, but all of the Baltic States. You two seem to think I was saying "Tell that to the Soviets" out of ignorance when it came to the terms of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?

The point is that the "peaceful" Soviet takeover of the Baltics was made possible by a situation where there was an agreement for the partition of Poland leading to a second world war. Under those circumstances, obviously the UK and France could do nothing to save the Baltic states; they were busy fighting Germany. (Declaring war against the USSR--even for its invasion of Poland and later of Finland, let alone for the seizure of the Baltic states--would accomplish nothing and only bring Germany and the USSR even closer together.)

So it doesn't really matter whether by "Tell that to the Soviets," you were referring to (1) the fact that in the original version of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, the Soviets were willing to let Germany "peacefully" acquire Lithunia, or (2) to the fact that the Soviets annexed the Baltic states in 1940. In either case it would simply not follow that Germany could have annexed Lithuania peacefully in a situation where there was no Polish crisis, no resulting German-Soviet pact, and no second world war.

(I am sorry if I misinterpreted you by assuming that (1) was what you meant. But I didn't think you were ignorant about the Pact--on the contrary, I was assuming that you were referring to a detail about it that too few people know, namely that originally it had assigned Lithuania to Germany....)

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

As proven by the 1939 German annexation of Memelland, France and Britain felt fine ignoring Germany's territorial growth as long as the territory was small enough and the victim country was unimportant enough. ....

But they did not feel fine. Both had been planning rearmament programs from 1936 and we're frantically strating those programs in 1938. France doubled down on trying to rebuild it's alliance system.

 

[jmc247]

But they did not feel fine. Both had been planning rearmament programs from 1936 and we're frantically strating those programs in 1938. France doubled down on trying to rebuild it's alliance system.

Since the 20s they made clear German entrance into the Rhineland was a red line and would be an act of war something they called it at the time. After they started looking at boosting rearmament yes.

They made similar calls in regards to German expansion over the next few years. Eventually one of the lines France put up was going to be real regardless.

 

[seraphim74]

Since the 20s they made clear German entrance into the Rhineland was a red line and would be an act of war something they called it at the time. After they started looking at boosting rearmament yes.

They made similar calls in regards to German expansion over the next few years. Eventually one of the lines France put up was going to be real regardless.

I think that occupation of Czechoslovakia was a decisive factor. The line after which any new demand could be only answered with war.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

I think that occupation of Czechoslovakia was a decisive factor. The line after which any new demand could be only answered with war.

I strongly suspect that had France been better prepared, and had a more realistic judgement from Gamelin & the other senior military, war might have been threatened in the 1937 Austrian Anschluss. The French decision to not maintain a standing 'Intervention Force' after 1929 really limited their options. Mussolini had opposed Austro/German merger through 1936, but part of his reversal in 1937 was the realization France would not be intervening militarily if the nazis tried again.

But yes, when Hitler declared the October 1938 Munich agreement a 'scrap of paper' in March of 1939 & the German army rolled into Prague it was clear the nazi government could not be trusted & militant Germany was resurgent.

 

[MatthewB]

How about China gives back Tsingtao in exchange for Germany help? Historically until the anticommiterm pact the Germans were big supports of the KMT in China.