WI: Nazi Germany becomes a Soviet satellite state?

whitecrow

Banned
It is often pointed out how crazy it was for Hitler to declare war on Germany’s much bigger neighbor that supplied it with oil, grain and other raw materials needed by the Third Reich.

So a thought occurred to me: what if Mr. Kill-all-Slavs-Jews-and-Gypsies kicks the bucket at some point and whomever takes over the leadership of the Third Reich thinks “gee, maybe attacking the U.S.S.R. isn’t such a good idea?”.

Instead, the Third Reich pursues friendly relations with the Soviet Union, providing technical expertise to U.S.S.R. in exchange for raw resources. Although initially an equal partnership, as Soviet Union becomes more and more industrialized and self-sufficient the need for German technical support diminishes while Germany is still dependent on Soviet grain and oil. As a result, Germany is drawn into Soviet Union’s political sphere, possibly akin to the U.S.-U.K. “Special Relationship”. As Germany becomes more dependent on and influenced by Soviet Union, the National Socialist party changes bit-by-bit from a fascist to an actual socialist party in an attempt to forge better relations with its partner.

How plausible is this? What POD would need to occur for something like this to take place (assume the POD has to be after Hitler takes power in Germany)? Depending on the POD, does the partition of Poland still take place? What about invasion of France? What is the balance of power like in the world assuming there is no war between U.S.S.R. and Nazi Germany? What impact does “Red” Nazi Germany friendly to Soviet Union have on Europe and U.S.A.? How does history remember the National Socialist Party?
 
Honestly, I don't that's possible at all. Any attempts at that kind of allying with the Soviets would have led to the Nazi party's base among the communist-phobic capitalists and middle class from withdrawing support, and the party splintering. Likely, it would mean civil war, which would in turn result in Soviet invasion, and a proper Soviet satellite state being set up.
 
Honestly, I don't that's possible at all. Any attempts at that kind of allying with the Soviets would have led to the Nazi party's base among the communist-phobic capitalists and middle class from withdrawing support, and the party splintering. Likely, it would mean civil war, which would in turn result in Soviet invasion, and a proper Soviet satellite state being set up.

Interesting you should say that, because Hitler certainly thought there was a support base for such an alliance. It was actually one of the reasons he used to justify the invasion in private, curing the common German solider of his Communist sympathies by showing him the true horrors of life within the USSR.
 
No, Germany is just too strong to become a Soviet puppet. Anybody holding the reins in Germany would rather fight than go that road.
 
If the Strasser brothers headed up the Nazi Party instead of Hitler, this would be conceivable - but it's hard to see how their brand of "National Bolshevism" would have propelled them into German leadership to begin with, since they'd be competing for votes with the Communists, and the middle and upper classes would not trust their views on "finance capitalism", land reform and alliance with the Soviets. Papen, for example, would never have invited them into the government.
 
The thing is, if the Nazis try this it could lead to the German Resistance taking power, which would be awesome. Contrary to the widespread perception that they were just boring generals who didn't want to lose the war, they were actually a pretty ideological interesting bunch who wanted to do all sort of crazy stuff like creating a European Union, turning back industrialisation and enforcing a sort of bizarre hybrid between constitutional monarchy and Fascism (they actually saw the Nazis as proof democracy didn't work and the end result of Weimar decadence). After all, this would be seen as proof that the Nazis were indeed 'Bolshevising Germany' as the German Resistance had always contended.
 
The thing is, if the Nazis try this it could lead to the German Resistance taking power, which would be awesome. Contrary to the widespread perception that they were just boring generals who didn't want to lose the war, they were actually a pretty ideological interesting bunch who wanted to do all sort of crazy stuff like creating a European Union, turning back industrialisation and enforcing a sort of bizarre hybrid between constitutional monarchy and Fascism (they actually saw the Nazis as proof democracy didn't work and the end result of Weimar decadence). After all, this would be seen as proof that the Nazis were indeed 'Bolshevising Germany' as the German Resistance had always contended.
In the end, the Soviets would still clean their clocks, doubly so if they were serious about restoring the monarchy and turning back industrialization.
 
What if it were the other way around?

What if an army led putch in response to Stalin's purges ended up with a militaristic "Motherland" party in charge of USSR, nominally communist (as much as the Nazis were Socialists) but anti-Jewish and hostile to the "subject races" e.g. Georgians like Stalin.

Would a USSR like that be enough of a "fellow traveller" to prevent conflict with Nazi Germany or is that conflict predestined on both sides?
 
The best of chance of this coming about would likely be in the form of a Nazi-Soviet alliance against Britain and the USA, over Finland perhaps. Let's say that this super powered Axis overruns the Middle East, much of northern Africa and China and finally devolves into nuclear/biological/chemical war in the late Forties, resulting in a bitter stalemate. Germany, being in closer proximity to the UK, gets the brunt of these attacks and comes close to collapsing. Heavily reliant on Soviet aid, it's ties come closer and closer to Moscow until it's foreign policy is essentially shaped by the Soviets.
 

whitecrow

Banned
Honestly, I don't that's possible at all. Any attempts at that kind of allying with the Soviets would have led to the Nazi party's base among the communist-phobic capitalists and middle class from withdrawing support, and the party splintering. Likely, it would mean civil war, which would in turn result in Soviet invasion, and a proper Soviet satellite state being set up.
But consider the following:

1) Nazi Party ran a totalitarian state, so even if they loose support amongst certain levels of society, they may still cling onto power through the regime’s totalitarian nature. And if the average German still feels that the Nazi Party is improving life for him the regime may enjoy overall popular support.

2) The move towards becoming a pro-soviet socialist state would not occur overnight, but rather slowly over years or even decades. This should help ease the transition and any problems can be dealt with as they arise along the way. Although maybe a “Night of the Long Knives Mk. II” may need to be performed at some point to prevent the party form splintering.

I also don’t envision this as Nazi leadership suddenly deciding “let’s become pro-soviet”, rather whomever succeeds Hitler as deciding “let’s pursue closer partnership with U.S.S.R. for realpolitik reasons” (as an example, think of how closely partnered U.S. and China are despite differences in their geopolitical goals and hawks on both sides seeing the other as an “enemy”) but over time this partnership causes Nazi Germany to become pro-Soviet.

Interesting you should say that, because Hitler certainly thought there was a support base for such an alliance. It was actually one of the reasons he used to justify the invasion in private, curing the common German solider of his Communist sympathies by showing him the true horrors of life within the USSR.
Interesting, I haven’t heard of that. Do you have a source?

Also seems like a strange way to go about doing things. “Send the soldiers to U.S.S.R. to show them how horribly the Slavs live under communist rule. Then exterminate the Slavs and “undesirables” to show the soldiers how horrible Nazism is.”

No, Germany is just too strong to become a Soviet puppet. Anybody holding the reins in Germany would rather fight than go that road.
I wasn’t talking about a puppet necessarily, but a satellite. Think along the lines of U.S.-U.K. “Special Relationship”.

The thing is, if the Nazis try this it could lead to the German Resistance taking power, which would be awesome. Contrary to the widespread perception that they were just boring generals who didn't want to lose the war, they were actually a pretty ideological interesting bunch who wanted to do all sort of crazy stuff like creating a European Union, turning back industrialisation and enforcing a sort of bizarre hybrid between constitutional monarchy and Fascism...
Turning back industrialization :confused:? Why would they want to do that? How did they plan to remain relevant on the world stage without having an industrialized nation?
 
Even if Hitler kicks the bucket, most Nazi party members hated the reds. Goebbels, Goring, Hess would still hold a lot of power and they won't allow the Nazi party to become socialist. They where building Germany up for something, that something was not to become socialist. If they would try to become socialist, they needed to stop building up their army, stop prosecuting Jews and stop provoking the Allies(no retaking of the rhineland, no munich agreement, no war). All promises made by the Nazi party would slowely fade away and they would loose support. Result, civil unrest. A communist regime could take power, but only after a serious civil war. Another night of the long knives but only hundred times worse.
 
The main reason why Hitler wanted to invade the Soviet Union in 1941 was that he feared Germany was already a puppet of the Soviets due to the necessity to import grain, oil, and other minerals such as maganese from Stalin.

Hitler felt that Germany's raw material shortage gave the Soviets too much leverage over the German economy, in that Stalin could ask for something in return for the oil, grain...

A prime example of this was in 1940. This happened April-May 1940, when Stalin, in return for his deliveries of raw materials, demanded the Germans construct two chemical plants in the Soviet Union. One was for coal hydrogenation (synthetic fuel) and the other one was for IG Farben's Buna Process (synthetic rubber) Also Stalin demanded full access to the blueprints, and the tools necessary to view the high pressure reactions.

In essence Stalin was blackmailing Hitler. "I dont get my plants, you dont get your raw materials..."

That little section is from The Wages of Destruction:The Making and Breaking of the NAZI Economy by Adam Tooze

To get a Germany that truly was a Soviet puppet, you need to go back to the early 1920's so as to get the socialist wing of the NAZIs in control of the party.

Getting a truly socialist party in control of Germany would be hard, but not impossible.

A possible scnario

Trotsky becomes Soviet dictator, and he continues to push for his continuous revolution theory, so he backs up the leftwing NAZIs led by Strasser in a coup that takes control of Germany.

If the coup is unsuccessful, then there could be a civil war on the likes of which ravaged Spain 1936-1939.

The Italians, Hungarians, Bulgarians, and other rightwing dictatorships in europe back the conservative opposition.

The Soviets back the Strasser brothers.

When or if the NAZIs win, they will completely owe their victory to the Soviets, and that should lead to a German/Soviet partnership in Europe (at least for a while)

Wishing you well, his majesty,
The Scandinavian Emperor
 
In essence Stalin was blackmailing Hitler. "I dont get my plants, you dont get your raw materials..."

Well i think we all knew that. Hitler kept letting Stalin think that.

I seem to remember Stalin allowed Hitler to use Soviet factories to build military equipement in the early 30's? Mainly since Germany's industry wasn't up for it. Something about Hjalmar Schacht springs to mind about rebuilding Germany's economy in the mid 30's so it could stop relying on the Soviets and start producing its own weapons, planes, ships and armor. From then on relations between the 2 countries where all but laughable theater. Hitler let Stalin blackmail him, he was going to take it all anyway.
 

whitecrow

Banned
Even if Hitler kicks the bucket, most Nazi party members hated the reds. Goebbels, Goring, Hess would still hold a lot of power and they won't allow the Nazi party to become socialist. They where building Germany up for something, that something was not to become socialist.
Would Goebbels, Goring or Hess be able to secure a position of dictator-for-life like Hitler was able to? If not, maybe a system similar to the one that emerged in U.S.S.R. post-Stalin (a Premier is “elected” by members of the communist party every 5 years (I.I.R.C.), holds relatively little power, etc.) can emerge in Germany. Would that increase the chances of Nazis going red in time?

The main reason why Hitler wanted to invade the Soviet Union in 1941 was that he feared Germany was already a puppet of the Soviets due to the necessity to import grain, oil, and other minerals such as maganese from Stalin.
So what would happen if Hitler dies and whomever takes power after him decides not to invade U.S.S.R.?
 
Well, then whomever rises to power must now find the way to pay some 500 million RM to USSR either in machinery, cold hard gold or in weapons. Perhaps a ship or two in addition to Lützow. If they do it puts a serious dent in their war making capability. If they don't manage it, well then they face economic collapse, loss of war and potential invasion by USSR. They might need to accept further Soviet territorial demands.
 
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