WI: Nationalists attempt to assassinate Shigeru Yoshida in 1952

I recently read that, according to declassified CIA documents, there was a plot by Japanese nationalists to assassinate Japanese PM Shigeru Yoshida in 1952 and replace him with Ichirō Hatoyama (who would eventually become PM anyway) in the hope that he would rearm Japan. Obviously the plan never went ahead, and the article did mention that the conspiracy, despite apparently having 500,000 sympathisers, was riddled with leaks and internal fighting, but what if they had gone through with the plan.

There are three possible outcomes I can think of, each of which I'm interested to hear what people have to say about them:
  1. The coup succeeds and Hatoyama is installed. Does he fulfil the dreams of the nationalists, and how does the reintroduction of government by assassination affect postwar Japanese politics?
  2. The coup fails. How does the government react? Quite a few of those involved had been war crime suspects and ex-purgees. Does the government reinstate and expand the purge?
  3. The coup fails, but Yoshida is killed and Hatoyama is implicated by association. Does this create a power vacuum in Japanese politics, and who fills it. What other effects does this have on Japanese politics?
 
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The coup succeeds and Hatoyama is installed. Does he fulfil the dreams of the nationalists, and how does the reintroduction of government by assassination affect postwar Japanese politics?

What kind of dremas are we talking about? A restoration of militar...cough*cough..."imperial" governance? Taking back Sakhallin and the Kuril Islands from the Soviet Union? teaching Koreans their place?

I don't think any of that would be doable in post-war Japan. Even if Hatoyama was installed and for some reason acquiesced to the nationalists' demands he would eventually be deposed in a US-backed counter-coup. Then, we'd move on to scenario number 2.

The coup fails. How does the government react? Quite a few of those involved had been war crime suspects and ex-purgees. Does the government reinstate and expand the purge?

For sure. Everyone who held any sort of militarist sympathies would either be exiled, arrested, or just forced to stay away from politics. We definitly wouldn't see the gradual revival of japansese nationalism ITTL.

The coup fails, but Yoshida is killed and Hatoyama is implicated by association. Does this create a power vacuum in Japanese politics, and who fills it. What other effects does this have on Japanese politics?

Well, the Liberal party is definitly screwed. With its leader dead and one of its most prominent members charged with conspiracy, there is no way the party can hold on to power. From that time forward, the rest of the japanese right will certainly want to stay away from them in order not to hurt their own image, so I guess this means no unification of the japanese right and no LDP.

This situation gives the Socialists a hell of an opportunity. I'd be surprised if they didn't find themselves in power soon. Politically speaking, we'd have a vastly different post-war Japan if that had happaned.
 
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