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How plausible is this? How far back would the POD have to be?

One idea that I have is having the Communists be less successful in their war against the Japanese, leaving them in a weaker position to take advantage of the Japanese surrender. The Nationalists are then able to defeat the Communists and assume sole rule over China.

How plausible is this scenario?

What would be the long-term effects of a Nationalist China? Would China become a solidly US-aligned country or would they become more independent? The Korean War would likely be butterflied away, since a Nationalist China wouldn't intervene against the US. What other effects would there be?
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