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Scenario: Nationalist China has eliminated the Communists in 1949 and are in control of China after decades of war.

President Chiang Kai-Shek, although authoritarian, implements reforms to transform China into a modern free market economy. Parts of China were already developing rapidly up until the early 1930s when persistent war ravaged the economy. Now China has the peace it needs for the sleeping giant to fix itself and wake up.

Your thoughts?

Mine would be (assuming President Chiang remains friendly with the West):
  • China would develop along similar lines as under Deng Xiao Ping in the 1980s, except this would be brought forward one generation to the 1950s.
  • The Korean War would end in defeat for North Korea as there would be no PRC to intervene.
  • Nanjing (the capital city of China under the Nationalists rather than Beijing) would host the Olympics in 1964 instead of Tokyo.
  • China would become the second largest economy in the world by 1980 (possibly earlier).
  • Japan would still develop rapidly as in OTL, but would be overshadowed by China. By 1980, it would become the third largest economy in the world after the US and China, and would have overtaken the USSR as in OTL.
  • Same outcome for the Vietnam War as in OTL. President Chiang would have been reluctant to get involved, as he was when Roosevelt wanted him to annex Vietnam during WWII.
  • China would be the biggest economy in the world by 2000.
  • The USSR would be weaker than in OTL and the Cold War would be mostly limited to Europe, with a few exceptions.
  • The world would generally be a better place than OTL.
How would the US react with a strong but friendly China rising, while the Cold War is being played out with the USSR?
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