WI National won a majority in 2011 NZ election, NZ First didn't return to parliament

What if the National Party had won a majority in the 2011 NZ election? Polling had shown them at around 51%, well on track for a majority, however when the voting occurred National, led at the time by John Key, fell just short and in a major upset NZ First, led by Winston Peters, did much better than expected getting 6.51% of the vote and returning to parliament with 8 MPs after being wiped out in the 2008 election. The comeback has been credited to the 'Teapot Tapes', when in a conversation with ACT party candidate John Banks John Key was alleged to have made derogatory comments about NZ First supporters(Stuff: How did winston Peters make his comeback?). This gave Peters's campaign oxygen and media attention, despite having been previously written off, and led to him being the protest vote that denied National a majority. Here are the alternate 2011 results:
2011 NZ election
John Key-National: 63+5 48.50%
Phil Goff-Labour: 37-5 28.28%
Russel Norman/Metiria Turei-Green: 14+5 11.09%
Pita Sharples/Tariana Turia-Maori: 3-1 1.46%
Don Brash-ACT: 2-3 1.27%
Hone Harawira-Mana: 1_ 1.08%
Peter Dunne-United Future: 1_ 0.62%
Winston Peters-NZ Firts: 0_ 4.31%
121 seats
61 for majority

What would be the effects of these results? What would happen to NZ First-and where would its votes go-would the Conservatives rise ithout NZ First as was speculated in the NZ politics thread? How would John Key's premiership be altered? What would be the effect on the 2014 and 2017 elections? What if?
 
The uptick in the polls began just after the NZF conference earlier in the year, of course. If the press have somewhere better to go, Winston doesn't get oxygen and he isn't mentioned negatively by Key.

I don't think there would be any major changes to public policy, it would just lead to a reduction in bluster.

NZF votes go largely to National and Labour, but it leaves room for Colin Craig to take the uber-socially-conservative voters who went for NZF in 2014 and just about beat the threshold. Then, of course, Craig implodes and the Conservatives drop out in 2017, with most of their votes going to National.

The Maori Party would also see a bit of a boost in '14 and '17.
 
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