WI: Napoleon wins the Peninsular War

What if Napoleon managed to invade and conquers Spain and Portugal? How does this affect the War? Would the Brits invade Normandy or would the Russians continue to push into Europe?
 
OTL shows there was one reality in the Peninsular War: France was not going to replace the Spanish crown with a Bonaparte. Thus, there was no way for France to win the P war (as defined by taking over Portugal and Spain).

What it could have, and should have, done is take over Portugal, and kept Spain cowed. Under such circumstances, Spain is not switching sides any time soon, and all French goals are met. Britain continues to battle Spain directly (they spent money elsewhere, but aside from a couple of adventures, their main military actions were against Spain and at France through Portugal), which is another goal of France. I understand that a lot of this is hindsight, but realistically, conquest of Spain was a risk that was not necessary, using foresight, hindsight, or just closing your eyes. Sure, the prize (control of all Iberia) was a darn good one, but the consequences of not taking action was minimal compared to the consequences of failed action.
 
OTL shows there was one reality in the Peninsular War: France was not going to replace the Spanish crown with a Bonaparte. Thus, there was no way for France to win the P war (as defined by taking over Portugal and Spain).

What it could have, and should have, done is take over Portugal, and kept Spain cowed. Under such circumstances, Spain is not switching sides any time soon, and all French goals are met. Britain continues to battle Spain directly (they spent money elsewhere, but aside from a couple of adventures, their main military actions were against Spain and at France through Portugal), which is another goal of France. I understand that a lot of this is hindsight, but realistically, conquest of Spain was a risk that was not necessary, using foresight, hindsight, or just closing your eyes. Sure, the prize (control of all Iberia) was a darn good one, but the consequences of not taking action was minimal compared to the consequences of failed action.

Agreed, holding Portugal was possible with about thirty thousand French soldiers (and Spanish agreement). They could not hold Portugal and Spain together.
 
What if Napoleon managed to invade and conquers Spain and Portugal? How does this affect the War? Would the Brits invade Normandy or would the Russians continue to push into Europe?

Even if Napoleon and his marshalls win every battle, the rebellion will always raise again.

Napoleon and his brother will never control Spain.

Overthrowing the spanish Bourbons was a nonsense and the peninsular campaign was a strategic dead-end for France. Bourbon Spain was a rather good ally.
 
you can hold Portugal with a grandmother riding a donkey.

Bourbon Spain was a tenuous ally. they toyed with the idea of switching sides once again in 1805, but Prussia losing so spectacularly, and quickly, dissuaded them. they were forced to assault Portugal in War of Oranges, but quickly stopped short of any real achievement, and had to be cajoled into providing troops for France. they weren't allies, as much as they were trying to remain relatively neutral after pissing off their former allies by abruptly dropping out of War of the Pyrenees and then pissing off their new allies by not really doing much.

but, they could have been bullied to standing pat. Nap would always have to have kept one eye on them, but they weren't a serious threat.
 
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