WI: Napoleon wins at Leipzig?

I don't think he would have gone back to Russia. He had probably figured out that Russia was basically impossible to occupy and that they probably were not going to surrender, especially with the Russian peasantry under the impression that they had just defeated the anti-christ.

Given the constantly shifting politics of the era, it's really hard to say how things would have gone. However, Napoleon probably would have focused on how to get the British out of the game. More than any other state, Napoleon HATED the Brits. His plan for Eastern Europe seems to have been to leave the politicial structure basically intact, rather than imposing his relatives on the people there. He would leave Russia, Austria and Prussia intact and play them off against each other so that he didn't have to worry about his own eastern border.

If Napoleon won at Leipzig, he most likely (IMO) would have sought peace with Russia and the other allies in order to regroup. With their own armies in disarray, I imagine the Russians, Austrians and Prussians would accept (assuming this was a real 'knockdown' victory at Leipzig, not just forcing the Coalition to withdraw)

Of course, from there, there's no real reason that the British wouldn't just organize another Coalition to go after Napoleon once more, as they did in the past and in the future of the IRL timeline. They had a lot of money and would have kept on funneling it to the other Coalition states until they got their way.

Now, what would be a REALLY interesting alternative timeline would be Tsar Paul staying on the throne in Russia. He was very close to officially siding with Napoleon, even going so far as to mount a (rather silly) expedition to attack British India via Central Asia.

If Russia had changed sides in the 1790's and fought for Napoleon of its own free will, the whole 19th century might have been a different beast altogether.

Another alternative would be the British continuing to act as dickish to Russia under Alexander as they did to Paul's Russia. Seriously, as allies go, the late 18th century British were pretty awful.
 
Michael Wittmann said:
Let's say he won the "Battle of the nations"? Will it give him more time to start over to Russia?

I'm not sure Napoleon would have been able to win Leipzig. From what I recall, he was pretty much encircled by his ennemies and has less troops than they had. He was also betrayed by Saxony during the battle (or shortly before it happened, I can't remember exactly) which pretty much doomed his situation. Of course, Napoleon has won other battles were his situation was rather precarious, but winning at Leipzig would be hard in my eyes.

Of course, he had done pretty well before Leipzig so I guess it's possible to have him succeed shortly before. I recall he tried to organise a "Congress of Prague" to negotiate peace shortly before Leipzig. I guess PODs exist where Napoleon could win in 1813.

What I'm sure of is that, in case of victory at Leipzig, Napoleon wouldn't try a second invasion of Russia: he no longer has enough troops to do so. For one, he lost around 80% (if not more) of the Grande Armée in Russia meaning he can only count on fresh recruits. Then, there is the fact that a great deal of his allies (who were furnishing soldiers to the Grande Armée) turned against him in 1813: I'm pretty sure that it reduces greatly the number of troops Napoleon can levy. Finally, there is Napoleon's personna: he was no longer the man that had won Austerlitz by that point and was more cautious but also more tired and exhausted.

In case of victory at Leipzig, as DGNT said, Napoleon will probably try to negotiate peace. He will probably try to keep the Rhine as the new border of France as well as his throne and maybe some of the puppet states he created (I more specifically think of Italy, Naples and Westphalia). He will have to make big concessions though, since the British and the Allies won't be satisfied with a complete hegemony of France. Among the concessions he could have to do, there are:

  • Giving up the North German coast which is under his control since 1810
  • Return the Illyrian Provinces to Austria
  • Forget about the Grand Duchy of Warsaw (probably will be a subject of dire negotiations because Napoleon was rather friendly with the Poles)
  • Restore the Netherlands (maybe with Louis Bonaparte as King although that might be pushing it)
  • Give up the idea of having his brother Joseph on the Spanish throne (Joseph has pretty much lose his throne anyway...) and return Catalonia to Spain (France annexed it in 1812)
  • Give up his titles of "Protector of the Rhine Confederation" and of "Mediator of the Swiss Confederation" (not sure about the second)
  • Lift the Continental Blockade (that would be a good start to try improving Franco-British relations)
All will depend on how the negotiations go from that point. Britain will be the toughest nut to crack: it won't accept an unbalanced Europe and thus a France that is too strong. Plus, if Napoleon manage to get rid of the threat on his eastern borders but not of Britain, he will have to go on his southwestern front to confront the Iron Duke... Wellington is nearing the Pyrenees rather fast and will probably try an invasion of Southern France if he is left uncheck.
 
Somewhen during the war they made him an offer which would've left him the Rhine border and Italy, but he declined. Of course, there's the question whether France would keep these in the long run, even if he accepted. He won't live forever.
 
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